Energy & power

Xcel Energy (XEL)

$74.64 +0.6% on the day·−4.0% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Hold50 / 100

Hold: 50 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−9% from its 1-year high) scores 70 and lifts it; Trend (−3% vs 200-day) scores 35 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	XEL	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	45%	45	40	18.0
Off the high	−9% from its 1-year high	70	30	21.0
Trend	−3% vs 200-day	35	30	10.5

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for XEL

Factor	XEL	Points	What it is
Plays in	45%	45	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+20% · 18 analysts · capped: below 200-day	50	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.4 · strong buy	79	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	20.4×	64	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E	16.4×	48	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.78	39	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	3.2×	56	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	1.9×	77	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yield	3.1%	72	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Earnings growth	+1%	29	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth	−5%	6	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	15%	59	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	9%	38	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Debt to equity	1.64×	13	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Off the high	−9% from its 1-year high	70	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	−3% vs 200-day	35	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	−4%	29	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	2/10 · low	80	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on XEL

45 of the 100 plays hold XEL right now.
The volume plays mostly say in; the breakout plays mostly say out.
It closed 3% below its 200-day average and 9% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low: it carries 1.8× as much debt as equity and operating profit covers interest only 2.3×.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $89.78, 20% above the close (18 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in45 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow2 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple0.97×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−3%). Higher than on 14% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about XEL now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn XEL: right 14 of 38 · Out since Dec 3, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn XEL: right 10 of 35 · Out since Aug 31, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn XEL: right 15 of 27 · Out since Sep 30, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn XEL: right 103 of 180 · Out since Oct 6, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn XEL: right 20 of 29 · In since Mar 27, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn XEL: right 58 of 139 · In since Aug 7, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn XEL: right 24 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

XEL, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved XEL lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Tue Sep 29+2.0% against the S&P 5001.6× a normal day

XEL +1.9%, the S&P 500 −0.2% that session; +1.9% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

Initiated at BuyAnalyst rating · Sep 29, 2:52 pm ET
Scotiabank started coverage at Sector Outperform. Target $77.00.
After new coverage at Buy, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 66% of the time (413 of 628 on 158 stocks; median move +0.7%). High predictability
XEL after new coverage at Buy: ahead of its index at the first close after the news 2 of 3 times (median +1.4%).

Mon Sep 21−2.1% against the S&P 5001.6× a normal day

XEL −0.6%, the S&P 500 +1.5% that session; −4.7% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on XEL was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for XEL starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved +1.5%. The 58 other Energy & power stocks Be The Puck covers moved −1.1% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Tue Sep 8+2.1% against the S&P 5001.5× a normal day

XEL +1.5%, the S&P 500 −0.6% that session; −0.8% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on XEL was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for XEL starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.6%. The 58 other Energy & power stocks Be The Puck covers moved +1.0% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Next earnings report

Thu Oct 29, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 1.33.

Over its last 12 reports, XEL's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±2.1% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 7 times.
XEL after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 7 of 11 times (median +0.5%).
XEL after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 11 of 23 times (median +0.5%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on XEL

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following11 of 30 in Breakouts & channels4 of 15 in Momentum8 of 17 in Mean reversion8 of 15 in Volume & money flow8 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on XEL went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.6%	Exit below $72.83 (−2.4%)	25% 175/710	+0.0% / +10.8%	−51.8% / −34.4%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $76.65 (+2.7%)	26% 33/125	+2.6% / +10.8%	−45.7% / −34.4%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $73.43 (−1.6%)	22% 90/412	+3.1% / +10.8%	−25.3% / −34.4%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Dec 1, 2025 −3.5%	Enter above $281.30 (+276.9%)	19% 19/100	+1.4% / +10.9%	−31.8% / −34.4%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $103.38 (+38.5%)	21% 18/85	+2.5% / +10.8%	−57.6% / −34.4%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	May 8, 2026 −4.5%	Enter above $84.58 (+13.3%)	32% 37/115	+2.1% / +10.8%	−42.1% / −34.4%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $77.42 (+3.7%)	27% 12/45	+6.5% / +10.8%	−36.6% / −34.4%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 −1.4%	Enter above $77.03 (+3.2%)	9% 23/249	+2.7% / +10.8%	−51.0% / −34.4%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +3.2%	Enter above $239.82 (+221.3%)	31% 11/35	+4.9% / +10.8%	−43.8% / −34.4%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Aug 10, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above $104.74 (+40.3%)	11% 20/179	+3.7% / +10.8%	−48.7% / −34.4%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $74.98 (+0.5%)	38% 53/141	+5.1% / +10.8%	−21.9% / −34.4%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.6%	Exit below $73.44 (−1.6%)	21% 173/828	+0.4% / +10.8%	−36.0% / −34.4%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.6%	Exit below $59.78 (−19.9%)	40% 106/262	+7.0% / +10.8%	−22.4% / −34.4%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +5.6%	Enter above $96.67 (+29.5%)	22% 5/23	+7.4% / +11.0%	−39.7% / −34.4%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Jul 30, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $92.19 (+23.5%)	26% 39/149	+3.0% / +10.8%	−33.0% / −34.4%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Jul 30, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $78.16 (+4.7%)	26% 36/137	+2.8% / +10.8%	−41.1% / −34.4%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.7%	Exit below $70.46 (−5.6%)	41% 53/130	+5.9% / +10.8%	−26.7% / −34.4%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Aug 4, 2026 −3.2%	Not on one close	46% 154/335	+5.6% / +10.8%	−18.9% / −34.4%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $66.57 (−10.8%)	38% 226/592	+5.3% / +10.8%	−22.6% / −34.4%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Jul 29, 2026 −4.5%	Enter above $76.44 (+2.4%)	40% 80/201	+6.3% / +10.8%	−26.2% / −34.4%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +5.6%	Exit below $72.29 (−3.1%)	34% 181/535	+2.0% / +10.8%	−28.4% / −34.4%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $72.40 (−3.0%)	30% 42/142	+1.9% / +10.8%	−24.7% / −34.4%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Jul 30, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $75.09 (+0.6%)	31% 61/199	+3.8% / +10.8%	−29.1% / −34.4%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $70.83 (−5.1%)	41% 55/134	+6.1% / +10.8%	−23.1% / −34.4%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below $36.48 (−51.1%)	34% 80/236	+4.3% / +10.8%	−24.2% / −34.4%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.6%	Not on one close	41% 91/224	+6.9% / +10.8%	−30.7% / −34.4%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Jul 30, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $75.02 (+0.5%)	35% 52/149	+3.2% / +10.8%	−31.5% / −34.4%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Aug 3, 2026 −3.2%	Enter above $96.80 (+29.7%)	29% 26/91	+4.6% / +10.8%	−36.1% / −34.4%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Jul 9, 2026 −4.8%	Not on one close	39% 78/198	+4.7% / +10.8%	−20.8% / −34.4%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Dec 3, 2025 −1.8%	Not on one close	37% 14/38	+1.2% / +10.8%	−8.7% / −34.4%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $68.72 (−7.9%)	37% 46/124	+4.0% / +10.8%	−25.6% / −34.4%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jul 9, 2026 −4.8%	Enter above $81.91 (+9.7%)	32% 45/139	+3.0% / +10.8%	−21.1% / −34.4%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Mar 20, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $81.91 (+9.7%)	28% 30/107	+1.5% / +10.8%	−32.9% / −34.4%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Mar 20, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above $144.93 (+94.2%)	27% 29/107	+2.0% / +10.8%	−28.5% / −34.4%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Apr 22, 2026 −2.9%	Enter above $76.44 (+2.4%)	32% 35/109	+4.0% / +10.8%	−22.9% / −34.4%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Mar 11, 2026 −5.7%	Enter above $75.35 (+1.0%)	30% 42/139	+1.8% / +10.8%	−22.4% / −34.4%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jul 8, 2026 −5.5%	Enter above $75.43 (+1.1%)	30% 70/237	0.0% / +10.8%	−39.3% / −34.4%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Aug 5, 2026 −2.5%	Enter above $74.64 (+0.0%)	41% 65/157	+5.1% / +10.8%	−22.3% / −34.4%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.7%	Exit below $71.10 (−4.7%)	40% 60/150	+4.0% / +10.8%	−37.4% / −34.4%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above $82.76 (+10.9%)	29% 10/35	+6.4% / +10.8%	−37.9% / −34.4%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.7%	Exit below $72.57 (−2.8%)	29% 77/270	+4.1% / +10.8%	−22.1% / −34.4%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Mar 3, 2026 −8.2%	Enter above $74.56 (−0.1%)	22% 34/152	+0.4% / +10.8%	−22.6% / −34.4%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Jul 1, 2026 −5.6%	Not on one close	39% 63/162	+1.8% / +10.8%	−21.7% / −34.4%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +4.5%	Exit below $71.08 (−4.8%)	30% 207/687	+1.5% / +10.8%	−46.5% / −34.4%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 23, 2025 −4.3%	Not on one close	26% 9/34	+2.2% / +10.8%	−6.5% / −34.4%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +5.9%	Enter above $81.63 (+9.4%)	57% 12/21	+10.4% / +10.7%	−29.3% / −34.4%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +5.9%	Not on one close	56% 15/27	+9.9% / +10.7%	−29.3% / −34.4%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Mar 31, 2026 −4.6%	Enter above $90.77 (+21.6%)	32% 15/47	+5.4% / +10.7%	−29.3% / −34.4%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jul 29, 2026 −4.5%	Not on one close	18% 33/183	+2.6% / +10.8%	−30.3% / −34.4%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Aug 30, 2024 +31.0%	Exit below $69.71 (−6.6%)	38% 3/8	+9.4% / +10.8%	−31.1% / −34.4%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Jul 2, 2026 −8.2%	Enter above $80.34 (+7.6%)	31% 40/129	+1.8% / +10.8%	−49.0% / −34.4%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +4.5%	Exit below $64.82 (−13.2%)	34% 166/484	+4.1% / +10.8%	−28.5% / −34.4%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +4.5%	Exit below $72.79 (−2.5%)	27% 225/846	+0.3% / +10.8%	−48.0% / −34.4%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +3.1%	Exit below $51.43 (−31.1%)	46% 135/296	+7.5% / +10.8%	−18.9% / −34.4%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2024 +37.6%	Exit below $39.39 (−47.2%)	18% 2/11	+8.9% / +10.7%	−29.3% / −34.4%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below $73.39 (−1.7%)	25% 164/659	−2.1% / +10.8%	−51.7% / −34.4%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.7%	Exit below $40.63 (−45.6%)	48% 121/252	+8.8% / +10.8%	−20.9% / −34.4%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Jul 30, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $75.50 (+1.1%)	31% 61/197	+4.1% / +10.8%	−28.2% / −34.4%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $73.35 (−1.7%)	31% 28/91	+5.3% / +10.7%	−33.8% / −34.4%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +5.9%	Not on one close	52% 13/25	+8.0% / +10.0%	−29.3% / −34.4%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +5.9%	Not on one close	56% 22/39	+9.8% / +10.7%	−29.3% / −34.4%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.6%	Exit below $63.09 (−15.5%)	36% 122/336	+6.9% / +10.8%	−21.5% / −34.4%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +5.6%	Not on one close	63% 22/35	+6.4% / +10.8%	−31.2% / −34.4%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 7, 2026 −3.6%	Not on one close	58% 167/286	+1.4% / +10.8%	−23.1% / −34.4%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 12, 2026 −4.3%	Not on one close	64% 267/415	+4.4% / +10.8%	−32.7% / −34.4%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +2.6%	Buy below $68.25 (−8.6%)	57% 103/180	+4.4% / +10.8%	−27.6% / −34.4%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Jul 22, 2026 −6.2%	Exit below $74.62 (0.0%)	57% 78/137	+4.7% / +10.8%	−31.9% / −34.4%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Jul 16, 2026 −5.9%	Exit below $73.58 (−1.4%)	60% 158/263	+2.8% / +10.8%	−30.6% / −34.4%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +1.2%	Not on one close	61% 39/64	+7.1% / +10.8%	−24.3% / −34.4%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +825.3%	Sell above $186.18 (+149.4%)	–	+10.8% / +10.8%	−34.4% / −34.4%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Jun 22, 2022 +30.5%	Buy below $68.17 (−8.7%)	17% 1/6	+1.7% / +10.8%	−5.9% / −34.4%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 8, 2026 −2.1%	Exit below $72.21 (−3.3%)	47% 151/318	+5.3% / +10.8%	−32.4% / −34.4%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Aug 24, 2026 −2.7%	Exit below $73.64 (−1.3%)	52% 230/441	+2.4% / +10.8%	−41.3% / −34.4%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +5.8%	Buy below $74.64 (0.0%)	57% 948/1664	+1.6% / +10.8%	−32.9% / −34.4%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +1.2%	Not on one close	55% 60/110	+3.6% / +10.8%	−28.3% / −34.4%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +5.6%	Exit below $72.57 (−2.8%)	35% 375/1065	+0.8% / +10.8%	−55.7% / −34.4%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 −3.8%	Sell above $71.90 (−3.7%)	52% 67/129	+5.9% / +10.8%	−30.0% / −34.4%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +4.4%	Not on one close	27% 212/792	+0.5% / +10.8%	−40.3% / −34.4%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	38% 67/176	+6.3% / +10.8%	−32.8% / −34.4%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Mar 27, 2026 −2.9%	Not on one close	69% 20/29	+6.0% / +10.8%	−24.4% / −34.4%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Jun 22, 2026 −4.5%	Not on one close	29% 29/100	+5.5% / +10.9%	−52.7% / −34.4%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.6%	Exit below $72.65 (−2.7%)	25% 219/876	−1.5% / +10.8%	−57.9% / −34.4%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.7%	Exit below $62.11 (−16.8%)	36% 129/362	+5.8% / +10.8%	−21.8% / −34.4%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +2.6%	Not on one close	32% 180/564	+2.7% / +10.8%	−30.6% / −34.4%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 −4.4%	Not on one close	32% 27/85	+6.6% / +10.8%	−37.3% / −34.4%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +5.9%	Not on one close	34% 325/967	+1.8% / +10.8%	−47.7% / −34.4%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Aug 7, 2026 −3.6%	Not on one close	42% 58/139	+2.8% / +10.8%	−30.1% / −34.4%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 −1.4%	Not on one close	29% 29/100	+1.8% / +10.8%	−37.3% / −34.4%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jun 10, 2026 −2.9%	Not on one close	32% 16/50	+1.2% / +10.8%	−8.9% / −34.4%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −8.6%	Buys Oct 30	56% 24/43	+7.3% / +10.8%	−29.3% / −34.4%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +5.8%	Window opens Apr 1	52% 23/44	+8.4% / +10.8%	−29.3% / −34.4%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 21, 2026 −4.1%	Window opens Oct 16	49% 21/43	+7.4% / +10.8%	−29.8% / −34.4%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +3.1%	Buys Dec 23	36% 16/44	+1.8% / +10.8%	−6.6% / −34.4%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +4.4%	Buys Oct 29	45% 239/526	−0.3% / +10.8%	−28.9% / −34.4%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +5.9%	Sells Jun 30	36% 4/11	+3.7% / +10.8%	−18.1% / −34.4%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −0.6%	Buys Nov 24	45% 181/400	+1.9% / +10.8%	−15.5% / −34.4%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +20.8%	Not on one close	45% 9/20	+7.0% / +10.8%	−31.2% / −34.4%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +0.6%	Sells Oct 16	50% 1150/2284	+4.2% / +10.8%	−40.6% / −34.4%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +2.7%	Buys Oct 27	43% 150/348	+1.7% / +10.8%	−10.7% / −34.4%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +4.5%	Sells Oct 16	50% 271/541	+7.0% / +10.8%	−25.0% / −34.4%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+10.8%	−34.4%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow2 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt2/3
Run-up0/2

It carries 1.8× as much debt as equity.
It operating profit covers interest only 2.3×.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 · back to its old high Nov 2009

XEL−23%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Aug 2020

XEL−29%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Oct 2022 · back to its old high Nov 2022

XEL−13%

S&P 500−25%

Beta0.11Moves about 0.1× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture40%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 40% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+28%
From 52-week high−9%
Debt to equity1.76×
Net debt / EBITDA6.5×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover2.3×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Utilities - Regulated Electric · Xcel Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas delivery company in the United States. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility and Regulated Natural Gas Utility segments.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$46.6B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$14.6B	Total sales. The market values it at 3.2× sales.
P/E ratio	20.4×	Buyers pay $20 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	16.4×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	1.9×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	15.3%	Keeps 15¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	−5.1%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+1.1%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	9.3%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	−$7.9B	Burning cash: needs savings or new money to keep going.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$23.6B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$41.7B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$2.0B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	1.76×	Above about 1.5× is heavily borrowed; above 3× is fragile in a downturn.
Interest cover	2.3×	Operating profit divided by interest. Under 2× means one bad year could make the interest hard to pay.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$89.78	20% above the close, from 18 analysts (range $74.00 to $101.00).
Consensus rating	Strong buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	3.11%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

XEL: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Energy & power: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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