Software & devices

Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR)

$152.18 −0.3% on the day·−51.8% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

In the Nasdaq-100.

Your signal

Sell39 / 100

Sell: 39 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Trend (+12% vs 200-day) scores 76 and lifts it; Off the high (−52% from its 1-year high) scores 0 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	MSTR	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	40%	40	40	16.0
Off the high	−52% from its 1-year high	0	30	0.0
Trend	+12% vs 200-day	76	30	22.8

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for MSTR

Factor	MSTR	Points	What it is
Plays in	40%	40	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+56% · 15 analysts	100	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.2 · strong buy	88	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	loss	0	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E	3.1×	99	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	2.85	17	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	107.7×	0	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book	1.7×	81	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yield	none	0	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	−598%	0	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth	+8%	33	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin	−6,103%	0	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity	−98%	3	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Debt to equity	0.22×	73	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Off the high	−52% from its 1-year high	0	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+12% vs 200-day	76	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	−52%	5	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	7/10 · very high	30	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on MSTR

40 of the 100 plays hold MSTR right now.
The momentum, mean-reversion and pattern plays mostly say out.
It closed 12% above its 200-day average and 52% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads very high: it moves about 1.5× its index and fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $237.80, 56% above the close (15 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in40 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureVery high7 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.12×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+12%). Higher than on 66% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about MSTR now.

Trend followingHoly GrailIN42% of 12,813 calls rightOn MSTR: right 27 of 57 · In since Oct 9, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn MSTR: right 77 of 203 · Out since Oct 8, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn MSTR: right 11 of 30 · Out since Nov 28, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn MSTR: right 109 of 176 · Out since Jul 20, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn MSTR: right 26 of 39 · In since Aug 4, 2025 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn MSTR: right 74 of 169 · Out since Sep 25, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn MSTR: right 19 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

MSTR, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved MSTR lately

Its 2 biggest moves against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Fri Sep 18+16.2% against the S&P 5003.0× a normal day

MSTR +16.4%, the S&P 500 +0.2% that session; +21.3% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on MSTR was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for MSTR starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved +0.2%. The 33 other Software & devices stocks Be The Puck covers moved −1.1% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Thu Sep 3+16.5% against the S&P 5003.3× a normal day

MSTR +17.6%, the S&P 500 +1.1% that session; +5.3% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

Price target raisedAnalyst rating · Sep 3, 2:11 pm ET
B. Riley Securities raised its price target to $175 from $155, keeping Buy.
After price target raises, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 55% of the time (2,637 of 4,768 on 215 stocks; median move +0.2%). Low predictability
MSTR after price target raises: ahead of its index at the first close after the news 12 of 28 times (median −0.5%).

Next earnings report

Thu Oct 29, 2026 after the close

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 14.08.

Over its last 12 reports, MSTR's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±4.1% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 6 times.
MSTR after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 12 of 18 times (median +1.2%).
MSTR after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 20 of 31 times (median −1.5%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on MSTR

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following20 of 30 in Breakouts & channels5 of 15 in Momentum4 of 17 in Mean reversion4 of 15 in Volume & money flow3 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns0 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on MSTR went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Aug 19, 2026 +46.0%	Exit below $151.39 (−0.5%)	25% 148/604	+12.3% / +16.2%	−80.9% / −89.3%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Sep 4, 2026 +6.6%	Exit below $118.67 (−22.0%)	25% 28/112	+8.1% / +16.2%	−88.1% / −89.3%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Aug 20, 2026 +35.4%	Exit below $138.96 (−8.7%)	23% 81/346	+16.0% / +16.2%	−80.4% / −89.3%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Aug 12, 2025 −61.4%	Not on one close	18% 23/130	+14.1% / +16.2%	−56.6% / −89.3%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Sep 18, 2026 −1.1%	Exit below $132.00 (−13.3%)	22% 19/88	+12.9% / +16.2%	−85.3% / −89.3%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Aug 29, 2025 −54.5%	Enter above $164.60 (+8.2%)	27% 23/85	+14.1% / +16.2%	−85.1% / −89.3%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −0.6%	Exit below $132.76 (−12.8%)	28% 13/46	+16.1% / +16.2%	−78.1% / −89.3%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 −1.1%	Exit below $135.68 (−10.8%)	16% 28/172	+14.6% / +16.2%	−72.4% / −89.3%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2025 −53.7%	Enter above $320.18 (+110.4%)	35% 11/31	+19.2% / +16.2%	−71.3% / −89.3%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Aug 25, 2025 −55.7%	Enter above $470.28 (+209.0%)	18% 21/115	+17.8% / +16.2%	−64.6% / −89.3%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Aug 7, 2026 +52.2%	Exit below $121.58 (−20.1%)	38% 50/130	+14.3% / +16.2%	−79.1% / −89.3%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Aug 19, 2026 +46.0%	Exit below $148.20 (−2.6%)	23% 178/786	+11.4% / +16.2%	−71.6% / −89.3%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above $213.47 (+40.3%)	43% 91/211	+24.1% / +16.2%	−63.4% / −89.3%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	OUT	Oct 31, 2025 −43.5%	Enter above $548.14 (+260.2%)	18% 7/39	+12.7% / +15.3%	−80.0% / −89.3%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Aug 27, 2026 +10.8%	Exit below $95.41 (−37.3%)	33% 43/132	+9.0% / +16.2%	−88.4% / −89.3%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 +5.1%	Exit below $113.36 (−25.5%)	36% 43/118	+13.1% / +16.2%	−90.1% / −89.3%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Aug 20, 2026 +35.4%	Exit below $139.83 (−8.1%)	35% 49/140	+17.5% / +16.2%	−68.1% / −89.3%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Aug 27, 2026 +10.8%	Not on one close	40% 112/278	+16.2% / +16.2%	−74.4% / −89.3%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +0.5%	Enter above $162.21 (+6.6%)	36% 218/611	+13.1% / +16.2%	−80.5% / −89.3%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Jul 30, 2026 +55.7%	Exit below $123.33 (−19.0%)	40% 87/216	+18.9% / +16.2%	−76.0% / −89.3%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +0.5%	Enter above $169.34 (+11.3%)	36% 168/464	+15.3% / +16.2%	−73.6% / −89.3%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Aug 27, 2026 +10.8%	Exit below $142.43 (−6.4%)	29% 42/144	+9.3% / +16.2%	−79.3% / −89.3%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Aug 20, 2026 +35.4%	Exit below $86.96 (−42.9%)	27% 54/198	+9.8% / +16.2%	−87.3% / −89.3%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Sep 18, 2026 −1.1%	Exit below $153.61 (+0.9%)	36% 98/273	+14.3% / +16.2%	−77.3% / −89.3%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Aug 21, 2026 +27.6%	Exit below $131.37 (−13.7%)	27% 67/244	+13.6% / +16.2%	−82.9% / −89.3%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +0.5%	Not on one close	41% 85/205	+18.0% / +16.2%	−65.5% / −89.3%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Aug 21, 2026 +27.6%	Exit below $91.09 (−40.1%)	29% 52/180	+11.3% / +16.2%	−85.8% / −89.3%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Aug 27, 2026 +10.8%	Not on one close	37% 36/98	+12.7% / +16.2%	−91.2% / −89.3%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −1.4%	Not on one close	33% 65/196	+11.2% / +16.2%	−64.5% / −89.3%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −1.4%	Exit below $147.37 (−3.2%)	47% 27/57	+1.8% / +16.2%	−35.1% / −89.3%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Aug 20, 2026 +35.4%	Exit below $123.33 (−19.0%)	37% 48/130	+10.5% / +16.2%	−89.0% / −89.3%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +0.5%	Enter above $171.19 (+12.5%)	36% 49/135	+15.4% / +16.2%	−70.5% / −89.3%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Aug 27, 2026 +10.8%	Exit below $123.33 (−19.0%)	29% 27/94	+10.8% / +16.2%	−78.0% / −89.3%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jul 28, 2025 −62.3%	Enter above $168.50 (+10.7%)	36% 32/89	+15.2% / +16.2%	−48.4% / −89.3%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +0.5%	Not on one close	36% 43/119	+7.7% / +16.2%	−80.9% / −89.3%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +0.5%	Enter above $173.00 (+13.7%)	38% 53/141	+17.8% / +16.2%	−70.5% / −89.3%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +0.5%	Enter above $175.03 (+15.0%)	32% 74/229	+13.9% / +16.2%	−68.9% / −89.3%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Aug 19, 2026 +46.0%	Exit below $145.77 (−4.2%)	38% 72/188	+15.5% / +16.2%	−67.3% / −89.3%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Jul 21, 2026 +49.3%	Exit below $144.44 (−5.1%)	35% 61/176	+15.4% / +16.2%	−76.5% / −89.3%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +0.5%	Enter above $172.20 (+13.2%)	38% 77/203	+20.6% / +16.2%	−75.0% / −89.3%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Aug 19, 2026 +46.0%	Exit below $146.77 (−3.6%)	28% 86/312	+15.8% / +16.2%	−76.5% / −89.3%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 −4.1%	Not on one close	30% 56/186	+6.0% / +16.2%	−45.0% / −89.3%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 +18.4%	Not on one close	34% 44/130	+1.6% / +16.2%	−66.5% / −89.3%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −6.2%	Enter above $156.20 (+2.6%)	31% 218/700	+16.6% / +16.2%	−69.0% / −89.3%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +20.6%	Not on one close	42% 20/48	+5.6% / +16.2%	−42.9% / −89.3%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	Nov 28, 2025 −14.1%	Enter above $279.46 (+83.6%)	35% 11/31	+12.5% / +15.1%	−74.9% / −89.3%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Nov 28, 2025 −14.1%	Not on one close	37% 11/30	+6.4% / +15.1%	−77.3% / −89.3%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Oct 31, 2025 −43.5%	Enter above $310.74 (+104.2%)	42% 13/31	+15.9% / +15.1%	−74.9% / −89.3%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Feb 8, 2024 +158.9%	Not on one close	26% 28/106	+7.4% / +16.2%	−50.5% / −89.3%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Apr 30, 2024 +42.9%	Enter above $251.44 (+65.2%)	42% 11/26	+3.3% / +16.2%	−70.3% / −89.3%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Sep 18, 2026 −1.1%	Exit below $138.14 (−9.2%)	32% 34/106	+11.5% / +16.2%	−88.5% / −89.3%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above $189.37 (+24.4%)	37% 143/386	+29.7% / +16.2%	−54.3% / −89.3%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above $154.50 (+1.5%)	29% 218/745	+14.4% / +16.2%	−72.1% / −89.3%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −7.4%	Enter above $276.41 (+81.6%)	42% 124/296	+18.2% / +16.2%	−69.9% / −89.3%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −0.6%	Exit below $96.75 (−36.4%)	60% 9/15	+17.7% / +14.6%	−88.0% / −89.3%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 −4.1%	Enter above $174.19 (+14.5%)	30% 165/550	+8.6% / +16.2%	−78.8% / −89.3%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −7.4%	Enter above $329.12 (+116.3%)	45% 105/234	+23.8% / +16.2%	−61.1% / −89.3%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Aug 20, 2026 +35.4%	Exit below $82.82 (−45.6%)	28% 56/200	+10.1% / +16.2%	−87.2% / −89.3%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 +14.5%	Exit below $138.62 (−8.9%)	30% 24/80	+7.7% / +15.1%	−89.8% / −89.3%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Nov 28, 2025 −14.1%	Not on one close	26% 6/23	+2.7% / +13.7%	−81.8% / −89.3%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2025 −52.8%	Not on one close	31% 11/36	+6.1% / +15.1%	−89.7% / −89.3%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above $200.23 (+31.6%)	36% 108/300	+23.6% / +16.2%	−56.4% / −89.3%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 +23.5%	Not on one close	67% 31/46	+6.8% / +16.2%	−70.8% / −89.3%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +0.5%	Sell above $152.67 (+0.3%)	65% 183/281	+8.5% / +16.2%	−38.9% / −89.3%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +0.5%	Sell above $164.55 (+8.1%)	66% 234/352	+11.0% / +16.2%	−65.0% / −89.3%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jul 20, 2026 +55.6%	Buy below $138.96 (−8.7%)	62% 109/176	+0.3% / +16.2%	−86.9% / −89.3%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 +23.5%	Not on one close	65% 102/156	+5.1% / +16.2%	−81.3% / −89.3%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −1.4%	Not on one close	63% 162/259	−0.7% / +16.2%	−85.2% / −89.3%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +14.5%	Not on one close	51% 35/68	+3.1% / +16.2%	−86.0% / −89.3%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 26, 2024 −57.0%	Sell above $327.94 (+115.5%)	85% 17/20	+14.9% / +16.2%	−84.1% / −89.3%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Jun 29, 2026 +64.2%	Buy below $98.98 (−35.0%)	44% 15/34	−2.8% / +16.2%	−62.8% / −89.3%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above $157.37 (+3.4%)	45% 141/312	+1.8% / +16.2%	−86.8% / −89.3%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −6.2%	Enter above $154.95 (+1.8%)	52% 211/409	−3.4% / +16.2%	−85.8% / −89.3%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +0.5%	Buy below $152.18 (0.0%)	58% 1051/1812	+6.3% / +16.2%	−48.4% / −89.3%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2025 −56.4%	Not on one close	57% 50/88	+10.1% / +16.2%	−55.7% / −89.3%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above $159.86 (+5.0%)	37% 398/1062	+12.6% / +16.2%	−76.9% / −89.3%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +63.1%	Buy below $156.18 (+2.6%)	61% 82/134	+7.3% / +16.2%	−85.0% / −89.3%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 −4.1%	Not on one close	29% 200/697	+11.0% / +16.2%	−88.5% / −89.3%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.8%	Not on one close	40% 86/215	+18.8% / +16.2%	−65.6% / −89.3%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2025 −60.9%	Not on one close	67% 26/39	+5.8% / +16.2%	−82.3% / −89.3%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	OUT	Feb 26, 2026 +14.1%	Not on one close	33% 41/123	+7.8% / +16.4%	−71.7% / −89.3%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Aug 19, 2026 +46.0%	Exit below $151.09 (−0.7%)	28% 179/632	+15.6% / +16.2%	−76.5% / −89.3%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $176.53 (+16.0%)	35% 121/341	+23.0% / +16.2%	−76.8% / −89.3%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2026 −1.6%	Not on one close	33% 196/591	+11.1% / +16.2%	−90.8% / −89.3%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +15.1%	Not on one close	23% 33/142	+5.5% / +16.3%	−93.2% / −89.3%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.8%	Not on one close	33% 318/968	+7.2% / +16.2%	−82.9% / −89.3%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 −4.1%	Enter above $153.11 (+0.6%)	44% 74/169	−0.8% / +16.2%	−84.3% / −89.3%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.8%	Not on one close	35% 38/109	+4.4% / +16.2%	−77.4% / −89.3%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jan 12, 2026 −6.2%	Not on one close	52% 22/42	+1.8% / +16.2%	−22.4% / −89.3%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −8.0%	Buys Oct 30	44% 19/43	+10.4% / +16.2%	−86.8% / −89.3%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 29, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above $179.40 (+17.9%)	53% 23/43	+14.7% / +16.2%	−76.6% / −89.3%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	May 13, 2026 −14.5%	Window opens Oct 16	53% 23/43	+19.9% / +16.2%	−80.8% / −89.3%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 −7.6%	Buys Dec 23	45% 20/44	+3.5% / +16.2%	−24.2% / −89.3%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −7.4%	Buys Oct 29	49% 257/526	+5.2% / +16.2%	−63.9% / −89.3%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −0.6%	Sells Jun 30	64% 7/11	+7.6% / +16.2%	−51.2% / −89.3%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +6.6%	Buys Nov 24	55% 220/400	+4.9% / +16.2%	−25.3% / −89.3%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +974.9%	Not on one close	40% 8/20	+13.3% / +16.2%	−82.6% / −89.3%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.3%	Sells Oct 16	50% 1153/2284	+3.9% / +16.2%	−87.9% / −89.3%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +20.6%	Buys Oct 27	50% 174/348	+6.2% / +16.2%	−25.6% / −89.3%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −4.9%	Sells Oct 16	53% 287/541	+10.0% / +16.2%	−65.4% / −89.3%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+16.2%	−89.3%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureVery high7 of 10 points

Market swings2/3
Past crashes2/2
Debt3/3
Run-up0/2

It moves about 1.5× its index.
It fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes.
It operating profit doesn't cover its interest.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Nov 2008 · back to its old high Oct 2009

MSTR−61%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Sep 2020

MSTR−38%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jun 2022 · back to its old high Dec 2023

MSTR−73%

S&P 500−25%

Beta1.50Moves about 1.5× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture219%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 219% as much on average.
Two-year change−28%
From 52-week high−50%
Debt to equity0.13×
Interest cover−84.1×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Software - Application · Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers investors varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offering a range of securities, including equity and fixed income instruments.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$60.7B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$498M	Total sales. The market values it at 121.8× sales.
P/E ratio	n/a	Lost money over the last year, so there is no profit to divide by.
Forward P/E	3.1×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book	1.7×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	−6,103.0%	Spends more than it brings in.
Revenue growth	+7.8%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	−598.1%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	−98.5%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	−$22.6B	Burning cash: needs savings or new money to keep going.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$51.0B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$6.8B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$2.4B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.13×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	−84.1×	Operating profit divided by interest. Under 2× means one bad year could make the interest hard to pay.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$237.80	56% above the close, from 15 analysts (range $165.00 to $435.00).
Consensus rating	Strong buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

MSTR: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Software & devices: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

Another stock

Email me Test a theory