Mean reversion · daily rule · Software & devices
Mayer Multiple on Strategy (MicroStrategy)
What the play says
MSTR with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding MSTR over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +14.9% | +16.2% | +18.5% | +16.0% |
| Total return | +1,957% | +2,504% | +133% | +110% |
| Worst drawdown | −84.1% | −89.3% | −84.1% | −84.1% |
| Volatility | 56.0% | 59.2% | 87.2% | 91.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.50 | 0.52 | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| Time invested | 98% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 0.9 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 17 of 20 closed calls (85%). In calls averaged +70.3%; out calls saw MSTR move +4.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | MSTR moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2024 | IN | $353.69 | now | −57.0% | open |
| Nov 18, 2024 | OUT | $384.79 | Nov 26, 2024 | −8.1% | ✓ right |
| Nov 13, 2024 | IN | $328.38 | Nov 18, 2024 | +17.2% | ✓ right |
| Nov 12, 2024 | OUT | $356.59 | Nov 13, 2024 | −7.9% | ✓ right |
| Apr 12, 2024 | IN | $147.96 | Nov 12, 2024 | +141.0% | ✓ right |
| Apr 10, 2024 | OUT | $156.60 | Apr 12, 2024 | −5.5% | ✓ right |
| Apr 9, 2024 | IN | $144.10 | Apr 10, 2024 | +8.7% | ✓ right |
| Mar 6, 2024 | OUT | $124.62 | Apr 9, 2024 | +15.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 5, 2024 | IN | $105.10 | Mar 6, 2024 | +18.6% | ✓ right |
| Mar 1, 2024 | OUT | $107.94 | Mar 5, 2024 | −2.6% | ✓ right |
| Mar 22, 2021 | IN | $72.46 | Mar 1, 2024 | +49.0% | ✓ right |
| Mar 19, 2021 | OUT | $77.70 | Mar 22, 2021 | −6.8% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 21 calls shown.
How the play works
- In while the close is less than 2.4 times its 200-day average.
- Out when it reaches 2.4 or more.
Mayer used it to decide when to keep buying, not when to sell. Selling above 2.4 is Be The Puck's reading.
On ordinary stocks a price 2.4 times the 200-day is rare, so this is close to buy and hold.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.