Guide · Mean reversion
Does Mayer Multiple work?
Across 375 stocks, Mayer Multiple cut the worst fall on 7%, beat buying and holding on risk-adjusted return on 13% and on raw return on 13%. Hard to justify on its own: it rarely beat holding on risk-adjusted terms and didn't cut the worst fall on most stocks.
What it predicts
Price divided by its 200-day average. Mayer found buying bitcoin below 2.4 worked best; above that was bubble territory.
- In while the close is less than 2.4 times its 200-day average.
- Out when it reaches 2.4 or more.
Mean reversion plays bet that short, sharp moves tend to snap back. The family guide
How to use it
- It trades rarely (about 0.0 switches a year), so it suits someone who checks in occasionally, and a single bad call can last months.
- It's right often (82% of calls), but check the size of the misses: a high hit rate can hide a few large losses.
- It worked best on Micro caps (67% beat holding on risk-adjusted return) and worst on Industrials & rentals (0%).
- Use it as one input. Your signal combines the plays you count with the other factors you weight into one call.
When it worked
Mayer Multiple did best against holding in the 2008 crash (0% median gap) and worst in the 2008 crash (0%). Median gap in return against holding the same stock (per year over stretches longer than 18 months; crypto excluded).
| 2008 crash | Recovery 2009–19 | COVID drop | 2020–21 rally | 2022 bear | Since Oct 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayer Multiple | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Where it worked
By kind of stock: how often it beat holding on risk-adjusted return, and the median Sharpe ratio gap.
| Group | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Sharpe gap |
|---|---|---|
| Micro caps | 67% | +0.01 |
| Metals & mining | 33% | +0.00 |
| Semiconductors | 22% | +0.00 |
| Software & devices | 18% | +0.00 |
| Big tech | 17% | +0.00 |
| Indexes & ETFs | 14% | +0.00 |
| Energy & power | 14% | +0.00 |
| Healthcare | 11% | +0.00 |
| Media & telecom | 10% | +0.00 |
| Consumer & retail | 3% | +0.00 |
| Sectors | 0% | +0.00 |
| Financials | 0% | +0.00 |
| Real estate | 0% | +0.00 |
| Industrials & materials | 0% | +0.00 |
| Industrials & rentals | 0% | +0.00 |
Where it helped most
Sharpe ratio gap against holding, stocks with 3+ years of history
Right now
Mayer Multiple holds 375 of 377 names as of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
No changes of call in the last two weeks.
Backtest results since 2005 (or as long as each stock has traded), against holding the same stock over the same dates, after 0.05% per switch. Past results don't promise future ones. This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.