Mean reversion · daily rule · Crypto miners
Mayer Multiple on MARA Holdings
What the play says
MARA with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2013
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding MARA over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2013 | Hold, since 2013 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −18.1% | −15.4% | −25.6% | −27.1% |
| Total return | −93% | −90% | −77% | −79% |
| Worst drawdown | −99.4% | −99.7% | −95.9% | −95.9% |
| Volatility | 123.7% | 130.3% | 105.9% | 105.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| Time invested | 96% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 10 of 14 closed calls (71%). In calls averaged +4.4%; out calls saw MARA move +65.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | MARA moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2023 | IN | $28.11 | now | −67.6% | open |
| Dec 27, 2023 | OUT | $31.07 | Dec 28, 2023 | −9.5% | ✓ right |
| Apr 29, 2021 | IN | $34.26 | Dec 27, 2023 | −9.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 28, 2021 | OUT | $37.64 | Apr 29, 2021 | −9.0% | ✓ right |
| Apr 20, 2021 | IN | $33.57 | Apr 28, 2021 | +12.1% | ✓ right |
| Nov 23, 2020 | OUT | $4.92 | Apr 20, 2021 | +582.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 24, 2020 | IN | $2.31 | Nov 23, 2020 | +113.0% | ✓ right |
| Aug 3, 2020 | OUT | $3.83 | Aug 24, 2020 | −39.7% | ✓ right |
| Dec 21, 2017 | IN | $19.60 | Aug 3, 2020 | −80.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 11, 2017 | OUT | $25.20 | Dec 21, 2017 | −22.2% | ✓ right |
| Dec 6, 2017 | IN | $18.60 | Dec 11, 2017 | +35.5% | ✓ right |
| Dec 5, 2017 | OUT | $20.44 | Dec 6, 2017 | −9.0% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 15 calls shown.
How the play works
- In while the close is less than 2.4 times its 200-day average.
- Out when it reaches 2.4 or more.
Mayer used it to decide when to keep buying, not when to sell. Selling above 2.4 is Be The Puck's reading.
On ordinary stocks a price 2.4 times the 200-day is rare, so this is close to buy and hold.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.