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MARA Holdings (MARA)

$9.11 −3.5% on the day·−55.0% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Your signal

Sell9 / 100

Sell: 9 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Plays in (14%) scores 14 and lifts it; Off the high (−60% from its 1-year high) scores 0 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weightMARAPointsWeightAdds
Plays in14%14405.6
Off the high−60% from its 1-year high0300.0
Trend−17% vs 200-day12303.6
Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for MARA
FactorMARAPointsWhat it is
Plays in14%14The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside––How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating2.1 · buy43The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/Eloss0Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/Eloss expected0Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG0.1098P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales58.7×1Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book2.1×71Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yieldnone0Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth−705%0Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth+5%26Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin−5,762%0Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity−208%1Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Debt to equity1.46×19Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Off the high−60% from its 1-year high0How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend−17% vs 200-day12How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum−55%3The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure8/10 · very high20The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on MARA

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in14 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureVery high8 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple0.83×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−17%). Higher than on 45% of days since 2013. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about MARA now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn MARA: right 15 of 30 · Out since Oct 28, 2025Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn MARA: right 131 of 358 · Out since Oct 7, 2026Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn MARA: right 7 of 14 · Out since Nov 28, 2025Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn MARA: right 64 of 105 · Out since Aug 20, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn MARA: right 30 of 57 · In since Jul 20, 2026Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn MARA: right 39 of 83 · In since Jun 26, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn MARA: right 13 of 28 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

MARA, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved MARA lately

Its biggest move against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Fri Sep 18+13.6% against the S&P 5002.4× a normal day

MARA +13.7%, the S&P 500 +0.2% that session; +10.1% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

  • Price target raisedAnalyst rating · Sep 18, 11:07 am ET

    Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $11.00 from $6.00, keeping Underweight.

    After price target raises, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 55% of the time (2,637 of 4,768 on 215 stocks; median move +0.2%). Low predictability

    MARA after price target raises: ahead of its index at the first close after the news 4 of 14 times (median −3.7%).

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on MARA

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following3 of 30 inBreakouts & channels0 of 15 inMomentum1 of 17 inMean reversion4 of 15 inVolume & money flow1 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns1 of 3 inCalendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on MARA went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2012. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

PlayCallSinceNext moveCalls rightAnnual returnWorst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · dailyOUTSep 29, 2026 −24.0%Enter above $10.93 (+20.0%)28% 106/384−11.1% / −15.1%−99.3% / −99.7%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weeklyOUTOct 2, 2026 −18.9%Enter above $11.87 (+30.3%)27% 15/56+4.3% / −15.4%−88.6% / −99.7%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · dailyOUTSep 30, 2026 −19.6%Enter above $11.30 (+24.1%)24% 50/207+0.8% / −16.0%−95.7% / −99.7%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · dailyOUTMar 11, 2024 −55.9%Not on one close26% 9/34+17.3% / −10.8%−71.9% / −99.7%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weeklyOUTOct 2, 2026 −18.9%Enter above $11.72 (+28.7%)24% 13/55−2.2% / −16.2%−87.2% / −99.7%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weeklyOUTSep 25, 2026 −27.4%Enter above $12.48 (+37.0%)24% 11/46+5.9% / −10.5%−89.1% / −99.7%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-endINSep 30, 2026 −19.6%Exit below $11.14 (+22.3%)39% 9/23+8.4% / −15.4%−88.2% / −99.7%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 −17.0%Enter above $10.98 (+20.5%)16% 17/108+9.3% / −15.4%−92.9% / −99.7%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · dailyINJun 18, 2026 −35.9%Exit below $6.72 (−26.2%)38% 8/21−3.5% / −15.4%−94.3% / −99.7%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 −17.0%Enter above $10.98 (+20.5%)19% 10/52+3.3% / −10.6%−93.3% / −99.7%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weeklyINSep 11, 2026 −24.0%Exit below $12.15 (+33.4%)39% 33/85−5.6% / −15.9%−97.1% / −99.7%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · dailyOUTSep 30, 2026 −19.6%Enter above $9.51 (+4.4%)24% 121/499−20.6% / −15.1%−99.9% / −99.7%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 −17.0%Enter above $16.57 (+81.9%)37% 53/145−13.3% / −16.2%−99.9% / −99.7%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · dailyOUTJul 14, 2026 −25.1%Enter above $34.25 (+275.9%)27% 6/22−3.2% / −11.3%−94.9% / −99.7%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 −18.4%Enter above $17.74 (+94.8%)27% 21/79−3.3% / −16.0%−93.6% / −99.7%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −12.1%Not on one close32% 21/66−7.2% / −15.9%−96.5% / −99.7%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −12.1%Enter above $11.19 (+22.9%)40% 38/95−10.9% / −15.6%−99.6% / −99.7%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 −17.0%Not on one close45% 87/194−1.0% / −15.6%−97.1% / −99.7%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 −18.4%Enter above $16.93 (+85.8%)36% 132/369+26.9% / −6.9%−85.4% / −99.7%
AroonTushar S. Chande · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 −8.1%Enter above $13.98 (+53.5%)47% 67/144+7.7% / −15.6%−91.4% / −99.7%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTSep 29, 2026 −24.0%Enter above $11.12 (+22.0%)39% 121/308−3.5% / −15.2%−97.3% / −99.7%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTSep 30, 2026 −19.6%Not on one close34% 34/100+18.4% / −15.6%−86.6% / −99.7%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 −17.0%Enter above $16.85 (+85.0%)36% 41/115−9.3% / −15.9%−99.4% / −99.7%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weeklyOUTSep 25, 2026 −27.4%Enter above $10.04 (+10.2%)37% 96/258−7.8% / −15.6%−97.2% / −99.7%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −12.1%Enter above $15.78 (+73.2%)33% 51/153−3.8% / −15.9%−98.8% / −99.7%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · dailyOUTSep 29, 2026 −24.0%Not on one close42% 55/130+5.3% / −16.2%−96.2% / −99.7%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 −17.0%Enter above $16.45 (+80.6%)35% 42/120−1.7% / −16.0%−96.7% / −99.7%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −12.1%Enter above $17.78 (+95.2%)36% 21/58+4.0% / −16.0%−90.1% / −99.7%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · dailyOUTOct 2, 2026 −18.9%Not on one close35% 52/148−8.3% / −14.4%−96.8% / −99.7%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTOct 28, 2025 −51.7%Not on one close50% 15/30+27.7% / −15.9%−36.9% / −99.7%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −12.1%Enter above $13.98 (+53.5%)41% 27/66+9.2% / −15.6%−94.9% / −99.7%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTJun 5, 2026 −26.1%Enter above $13.98 (+53.5%)37% 22/60+19.6% / −15.8%−77.1% / −99.7%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTJul 16, 2026 −20.2%Enter above $13.98 (+53.5%)34% 15/44+2.1% / −15.8%−89.2% / −99.7%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTJul 17, 2026 −14.8%Enter above $21.56 (+136.7%)50% 18/36+21.4% / −16.0%−62.7% / −99.7%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 −8.1%Not on one close32% 23/72−13.1% / −15.6%−97.6% / −99.7%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · dailyOUTJun 5, 2026 −26.1%Enter above $13.17 (+44.5%)32% 29/90+7.1% / −15.1%−76.9% / −99.7%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTSep 30, 2026 −19.6%Enter above $14.70 (+61.3%)42% 50/118+25.0% / −15.6%−84.2% / −99.7%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · dailyOUTOct 1, 2026 −18.7%Enter above $13.63 (+49.6%)45% 53/118+13.3% / −15.6%−80.7% / −99.7%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTOct 2, 2026 −18.9%Enter above $11.04 (+21.1%)46% 50/108−5.3% / −15.6%−99.2% / −99.7%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −12.1%Enter above $12.37 (+35.7%)37% 131/358−13.8% / −15.6%−95.6% / −99.7%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTSep 30, 2026 −19.6%Enter above $11.72 (+28.7%)27% 56/205−4.2% / −15.6%−92.9% / −99.7%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · dailyOUTApr 24, 2026 −21.7%Not on one close30% 27/90−6.3% / −15.6%−86.7% / −99.7%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · dailyOUTSep 29, 2026 −24.0%Not on one close42% 36/86+1.1% / −15.1%−72.3% / −99.7%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · dailyOUTSep 24, 2026 −29.5%Enter above $9.27 (+1.8%)37% 139/376+22.4% / −10.6%−90.4% / −99.7%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTSep 30, 2026 −19.6%Not on one close50% 8/16+7.1% / −16.1%−54.2% / −99.7%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-endOUTNov 28, 2025 −22.9%Enter above $18.94 (+108.0%)43% 6/14+6.5% / −11.4%−91.6% / −99.7%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-endOUTNov 28, 2025 −22.9%Not on one close50% 7/14+7.5% / −11.4%−91.6% / −99.7%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-endOUTDec 31, 2024 −45.7%Enter above $21.06 (+131.2%)62% 10/16+18.5% / −11.4%−85.0% / −99.7%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTJul 28, 2026 −19.9%Not on one close18% 7/38+2.2% / −16.0%−47.8% / −99.7%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-endOUTApr 30, 2021 −75.2%Enter above $16.92 (+85.7%)50% 5/10+7.6% / −10.7%−63.2% / −99.7%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weeklyOUTOct 2, 2026 −18.9%Enter above $12.55 (+37.8%)26% 18/68+14.4% / −16.1%−84.6% / −99.7%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · dailyOUTSep 29, 2026 −24.0%Enter above $14.32 (+57.2%)40% 106/267−2.1% / −15.9%−98.9% / −99.7%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 −24.8%Enter above $10.57 (+16.0%)27% 130/476−17.9% / −15.9%−99.7% / −99.7%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · dailyOUTOct 2, 2026 −18.9%Enter above $25.50 (+179.9%)43% 80/187+0.5% / −15.8%−93.9% / −99.7%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-endOUTJul 31, 2026 −19.5%Enter above $9.72 (+6.7%)24% 4/17−19.2% / −15.4%−99.5% / −99.7%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · dailyOUTSep 25, 2026 −27.4%Enter above $15.60 (+71.3%)33% 94/284+37.7% / −11.6%−71.8% / −99.7%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 −18.4%Enter above $33.04 (+262.7%)43% 69/161+1.0% / −16.0%−94.9% / −99.7%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 −17.0%Enter above $16.95 (+86.0%)37% 41/111−1.2% / −16.0%−97.9% / −99.7%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-endINSep 30, 2026 −19.6%Exit below $11.63 (+27.6%)34% 18/53+11.5% / −11.4%−91.6% / −99.7%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-endOUTNov 28, 2025 −22.9%Not on one close54% 7/13+5.7% / −16.9%−84.9% / −99.5%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · dailyOUTApr 30, 2024 −43.3%Not on one close67% 8/12−0.3% / −11.4%−74.2% / −99.7%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · dailyOUTOct 1, 2026 −18.7%Enter above $15.21 (+66.9%)42% 76/182+9.3% / −16.2%−95.6% / −99.7%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTApr 21, 2026 −18.9%Enter above $9.13 (+0.2%)46% 11/24−27.5% / −15.3%−99.8% / −99.7%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyINSep 28, 2026 −24.8%Sell above $9.53 (+4.6%)66% 80/121−1.3% / −15.4%−58.3% / −99.7%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyINSep 28, 2026 −24.8%Sell above $10.97 (+20.4%)59% 83/141−6.3% / −15.4%−82.3% / −99.7%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTAug 20, 2026 −18.3%Buy below $8.37 (−8.2%)61% 64/105+5.2% / −15.6%−98.1% / −99.7%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · dailyOUTSep 23, 2026 −31.8%Enter above $9.19 (+0.9%)63% 48/76−11.4% / −14.1%−98.6% / −99.7%
Williams %RLarry Williams · dailyOUTAug 26, 2026 −18.8%Enter above $9.78 (+7.4%)47% 72/152−32.1% / −11.3%−99.7% / −99.7%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · dailyINJul 8, 2026 −24.2%Not on one close58% 25/43−18.1% / −15.7%−99.0% / −99.7%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · dailyINDec 28, 2023 −67.6%Sell above $26.54 (+191.3%)71% 10/14−18.1% / −15.4%−99.4% / −99.7%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · dailyOUTNov 24, 2025 −18.7%Not on one close53% 18/34+6.9% / −16.2%−57.2% / −99.7%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTAug 31, 2026 −15.4%Enter above $10.72 (+17.7%)45% 84/187−15.2% / −15.1%−97.7% / −99.7%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTAug 26, 2026 −18.8%Enter above $9.48 (+4.1%)46% 123/266−25.8% / −15.1%−99.7% / −99.7%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Buy below $9.11 (0.0%)58% 717/1246+15.7% / −16.4%−80.8% / −99.7%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTJan 13, 2026 −16.8%Not on one close56% 19/34−9.6% / −15.4%−86.5% / −99.7%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTSep 25, 2026 −27.4%Enter above $9.36 (+2.8%)36% 252/694−15.4% / −15.9%−99.4% / −99.7%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 −19.6%Buy below $11.56 (+26.9%)58% 49/85−18.3% / −15.1%−98.3% / −99.7%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTSep 29, 2026 −24.0%Not on one close30% 113/378−11.9% / −15.6%−99.9% / −99.7%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 −18.4%Not on one close43% 61/141−12.9% / −15.7%−99.7% / −99.7%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · dailyINJul 20, 2026 −21.9%Not on one close53% 30/57−21.4% / −15.3%−99.7% / −99.7%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · dailyOUTMay 14, 2013 −80.5%Not on one close0% 0/1+1.8% / −11.5%0.0% / −99.7%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · dailyOUTSep 30, 2026 −19.6%Enter above $10.23 (+12.3%)26% 95/364−4.7% / −15.6%−99.7% / −99.7%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · dailyOUTOct 1, 2026 −18.7%Enter above $21.19 (+132.6%)41% 99/242+10.4% / −5.3%−94.3% / −99.7%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 −24.8%Not on one close41% 125/307−8.2% / −15.6%−98.8% / −99.7%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Not on one close28% 26/93−8.8% / −11.1%−96.8% / −99.7%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · dailyOUTSep 24, 2026 −29.5%Not on one close34% 184/546−8.4% / −16.0%−98.5% / −99.7%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · dailyINJun 26, 2026 −37.3%Not on one close47% 39/83+0.0% / −15.6%−99.5% / −99.7%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · dailyOUTOct 28, 2025 −51.7%Not on one close44% 21/48+13.2% / −15.6%−91.9% / −99.7%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTAug 7, 2026 −9.7%Not on one close45% 10/22−2.0% / −15.6%−27.0% / −99.7%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 30, 2026 −24.0%Buys Oct 3046% 13/28−9.8% / −16.4%−95.3% / −99.7%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 27, 2026 −18.5%Enter above $12.38 (+35.9%)57% 16/28+0.3% / −15.9%−96.1% / −99.7%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · dailyOUTApr 29, 2026 −15.0%Window opens Oct 1643% 12/28−10.8% / −15.9%−97.7% / −99.7%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTJan 5, 2026 −14.0%Buys Dec 2357% 16/28−0.7% / −16.4%−48.7% / −99.7%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 −18.4%Buys Oct 2946% 160/346−2.0% / −16.4%−88.8% / −99.7%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINSep 30, 2026 −19.6%Sells Jun 3057% 4/7−4.7% / −16.4%−90.9% / −99.7%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −19.5%Buys Nov 2450% 134/266+4.8% / −16.4%−30.9% / −99.7%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-endINDec 30, 2022 +166.4%Not on one close42% 5/12−17.7% / −15.9%−98.6% / −99.7%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyINOct 12, 2026 −3.5%Sells Oct 1646% 688/1507−14.3% / −16.4%−99.8% / −99.7%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 −17.5%Buys Oct 2746% 104/228+8.1% / −16.4%−53.1% / −99.7%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −18.9%Sells Oct 1648% 171/357−8.3% / −16.4%−95.3% / −99.7%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmarkINMay 4, 2012Always in–−16.4%−99.7%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works
ExposureVery high8 of 10 points
  • Market swings3/3
  • Past crashes2/2
  • Debt3/3
  • Run-up0/2
  • It moves about 2.0× its index.
  • It fell about 2.6× as far as its index in past crashes.
  • It operating profit doesn't cover its interest.

Past crashes, peak to low

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jun 2020

MARA−63%
S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jun 2022 · never got back

MARA−84%
S&P 500−25%
  • Beta2.01Moves about 2.0× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
  • Downside capture623%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 623% as much on average.
  • Two-year change−43%
  • From 52-week high−60%
  • Debt to equity0.71×
  • Interest cover−27.3×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Capital Markets · MARA Holdings, Inc. operates as an energy and digital infrastructure company in North America, the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America. The company leverages Bitcoin Mining and Artificial Intelligence compute to monetize excess energy and underutilized power, optimize power management across operations and support AI inference applications. The company was formerly known as Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to MARA Holdings, Inc. in August 2024. MARA Holdings, Inc.

Size and valuation
Market cap$3.5BWhat the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)$804MTotal sales. The market values it at 4.4× sales.
P/E ration/aLost money over the last year, so there is no profit to divide by.
Price to book2.1×Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.
Profit and growth
Profit margin−5,762.1%Spends more than it brings in.
Revenue growth+5.5%The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth−704.8%Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity−208.1%Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow−$1.2BBurning cash: needs savings or new money to keep going.
Balance sheet
Total equity$3.5BWhat it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt$2.5BLoans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash$421MCash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity0.71×Moderate.
Interest cover−27.3×Operating profit divided by interest. Under 2× means one bad year could make the interest hard to pay.
Wall Street
Average analyst target$18.61104% above the close, from 13 analysts (range $10.00 to $30.00).
Consensus ratingBuyAnalysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Read more

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

MARA: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.MembersCrypto miners: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.MembersDebt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.MembersIs this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members
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