Volume & money flow · daily rule · Crypto miners
Money Flow Index on MARA Holdings
MARA with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2012
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding MARA over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2012 | Hold, since 2012 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −21.4% | −15.3% | +27.5% | −27.1% |
| Total return | −97% | −91% | +234% | −79% |
| Worst drawdown | −99.7% | −99.7% | −71.5% | −95.9% |
| Volatility | 83.6% | 161.4% | 57.8% | 105.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.08 | 0.52 | 0.63 | 0.18 |
| Time invested | 37% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 4.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 30 of 57 closed calls (53%). In calls averaged −1.3%; out calls saw MARA move +179.2% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | MARA moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | IN | $11.67 | now | −21.9% | open |
| Sep 27, 2024 | OUT | $17.29 | Jul 20, 2026 | −32.5% | ✓ right |
| Aug 6, 2024 | IN | $17.25 | Sep 27, 2024 | +0.2% | ✓ right |
| May 22, 2024 | OUT | $21.24 | Aug 6, 2024 | −18.8% | ✓ right |
| Apr 19, 2024 | IN | $16.50 | May 22, 2024 | +28.7% | ✓ right |
| Feb 13, 2024 | OUT | $25.72 | Apr 19, 2024 | −35.8% | ✓ right |
| Jan 19, 2024 | IN | $16.13 | Feb 13, 2024 | +59.5% | ✓ right |
| Dec 7, 2023 | OUT | $15.51 | Jan 19, 2024 | +4.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 23, 2023 | IN | $11.75 | Dec 7, 2023 | +32.0% | ✓ right |
| Jan 19, 2023 | OUT | $7.34 | Aug 23, 2023 | +60.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 3, 2023 | IN | $3.40 | Jan 19, 2023 | +115.9% | ✓ right |
| Jul 25, 2022 | OUT | $11.57 | Jan 3, 2023 | −70.6% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 58 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.