Momentum · month-end rule · Crypto miners
12-1 Momentum on MARA Holdings
What the play says
Latest reading: 12-1 return −41.0%
MARA with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Return from 12 months to 1 month ago
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2013
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding MARA over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2013 | Hold, since 2013 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +7.5% | −11.4% | −16.6% | −27.1% |
| Total return | +162% | −80% | −59% | −79% |
| Worst drawdown | −91.6% | −99.7% | −81.7% | −95.9% |
| Volatility | 65.5% | 129.6% | 67.5% | 105.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.01 | 0.18 |
| Time invested | 36% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 7 of 14 closed calls (50%). In calls averaged +116.7%; out calls saw MARA move −15.2% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | MARA moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | OUT | $11.81 | now | −22.9% | open |
| Oct 31, 2025 | IN | $18.27 | Nov 28, 2025 | −35.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 31, 2025 | OUT | $18.34 | Oct 31, 2025 | −0.4% | ✓ right |
| Nov 30, 2023 | IN | $11.97 | Jan 31, 2025 | +53.2% | ✓ right |
| Oct 31, 2023 | OUT | $8.81 | Nov 30, 2023 | +35.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 30, 2023 | IN | $13.86 | Oct 31, 2023 | −36.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 28, 2022 | OUT | $25.35 | Jun 30, 2023 | −45.3% | ✓ right |
| Aug 31, 2020 | IN | $2.48 | Feb 28, 2022 | +922.2% | ✓ right |
| Jun 29, 2018 | OUT | $3.68 | Aug 31, 2020 | −32.6% | ✓ right |
| May 31, 2018 | IN | $5.56 | Jun 29, 2018 | −33.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 31, 2017 | OUT | $28.00 | May 31, 2018 | −80.1% | ✓ right |
| Aug 31, 2016 | IN | $46.08 | Jan 31, 2017 | −39.2% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 15 calls shown.
How the play works
- In at month-end when the return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago is above zero.
- Out when it is zero or below.
Jegadeesh and Titman ranked thousands of stocks and bought the winners. Testing one stock against zero is time-series momentum, a related idea.
The skip-a-month form came later; their 1993 paper skipped at most a week.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.