Mean reversion · daily rule · Metals & mining
Mayer Multiple on Vizsla Silver
What the play says
VZLA with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2019
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding VZLA over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2019 | Hold, since 2019 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +61.6% | +53.2% | +13.0% | +13.0% |
| Total return | +3,070% | +2,052% | +84% | +84% |
| Worst drawdown | −68.8% | −73.1% | −64.8% | −64.8% |
| Volatility | 87.1% | 89.1% | 61.7% | 61.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| Time invested | 97% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.4 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 9 of 10 closed calls (90%). In calls averaged +81.3%; out calls saw VZLA move −7.2% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | VZLA moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2020 | IN | C$1.84 | now | +145.7% | open |
| Aug 20, 2020 | OUT | C$1.94 | Aug 21, 2020 | −5.2% | ✓ right |
| Aug 19, 2020 | IN | C$1.83 | Aug 20, 2020 | +6.0% | ✓ right |
| Jul 8, 2020 | OUT | C$2.20 | Aug 19, 2020 | −16.8% | ✓ right |
| Jan 28, 2020 | IN | C$0.740 | Jul 8, 2020 | +197.3% | ✓ right |
| Jan 24, 2020 | OUT | C$0.800 | Jan 28, 2020 | −7.5% | ✓ right |
| Jan 23, 2020 | IN | C$0.740 | Jan 24, 2020 | +8.1% | ✓ right |
| Dec 27, 2019 | OUT | C$0.690 | Jan 23, 2020 | +7.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 10, 2019 | IN | C$0.415 | Dec 27, 2019 | +66.3% | ✓ right |
| Oct 9, 2019 | OUT | C$0.480 | Oct 10, 2019 | −13.5% | ✓ right |
| Jul 19, 2019 | IN | C$0.210 | Oct 9, 2019 | +128.6% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 11 of 11 calls shown.
How the play works
- In while the close is less than 2.4 times its 200-day average.
- Out when it reaches 2.4 or more.
Mayer used it to decide when to keep buying, not when to sell. Selling above 2.4 is Be The Puck's reading.
On ordinary stocks a price 2.4 times the 200-day is rare, so this is close to buy and hold.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.