Mean reversion · daily rule · Metals & mining
Mayer Multiple on Discovery Silver
What the play says
DSV with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2015
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding DSV over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2015 | Hold, since 2015 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +47.5% | +63.9% | +56.1% | +51.2% |
| Total return | +7,421% | +24,140% | +818% | +682% |
| Worst drawdown | −81.5% | −81.5% | −76.6% | −76.6% |
| Volatility | 119.0% | 129.7% | 78.2% | 78.4% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.76 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 0.86 |
| Time invested | 95% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.6 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 14 of 18 closed calls (78%). In calls averaged +53.1%; out calls saw DSV move +26.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | DSV moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2025 | IN | C$3.39 | now | +257.5% | open |
| Jun 3, 2025 | OUT | C$3.55 | Jun 6, 2025 | −4.5% | ✓ right |
| May 27, 2025 | IN | C$3.16 | Jun 3, 2025 | +12.3% | ✓ right |
| May 26, 2025 | OUT | C$3.34 | May 27, 2025 | −5.4% | ✓ right |
| May 7, 2025 | IN | C$2.84 | May 26, 2025 | +17.6% | ✓ right |
| May 6, 2025 | OUT | C$3.03 | May 7, 2025 | −6.3% | ✓ right |
| Apr 22, 2025 | IN | C$2.66 | May 6, 2025 | +13.9% | ✓ right |
| Apr 14, 2025 | OUT | C$2.65 | Apr 22, 2025 | +0.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 21, 2020 | IN | C$2.19 | Apr 14, 2025 | +21.0% | ✓ right |
| Sep 18, 2020 | OUT | C$2.29 | Sep 21, 2020 | −4.4% | ✓ right |
| Sep 17, 2020 | IN | C$2.15 | Sep 18, 2020 | +6.5% | ✓ right |
| Jul 24, 2020 | OUT | C$1.68 | Sep 17, 2020 | +28.0% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 19 calls shown.
How the play works
- In while the close is less than 2.4 times its 200-day average.
- Out when it reaches 2.4 or more.
Mayer used it to decide when to keep buying, not when to sell. Selling above 2.4 is Be The Puck's reading.
On ordinary stocks a price 2.4 times the 200-day is rare, so this is close to buy and hold.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.