Mean reversion · daily rule · Crypto miners
Mayer Multiple on Riot Platforms
What the play says
RIOT with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2017
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding RIOT over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2017 | Hold, since 2017 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −4.1% | +18.3% | −7.2% | −8.3% |
| Total return | −33% | +411% | −31% | −35% |
| Worst drawdown | −96.6% | −98.3% | −92.6% | −92.6% |
| Volatility | 98.3% | 112.1% | 94.3% | 94.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.41 | 0.67 | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| Time invested | 94% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.6 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 12 of 16 closed calls (75%). In calls averaged +23.2%; out calls saw RIOT move +76.9% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | RIOT moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2023 | IN | $19.12 | now | −12.8% | open |
| Jul 13, 2023 | OUT | $20.29 | Jul 14, 2023 | −5.8% | ✓ right |
| Apr 19, 2021 | IN | $40.90 | Jul 13, 2023 | −50.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 19, 2020 | OUT | $6.00 | Apr 19, 2021 | +581.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 18, 2020 | IN | $5.25 | Nov 19, 2020 | +14.3% | ✓ right |
| Nov 17, 2020 | OUT | $6.08 | Nov 18, 2020 | −13.7% | ✓ right |
| Aug 18, 2020 | IN | $4.04 | Nov 17, 2020 | +50.6% | ✓ right |
| Aug 17, 2020 | OUT | $4.15 | Aug 18, 2020 | −2.7% | ✓ right |
| Aug 11, 2020 | IN | $3.62 | Aug 17, 2020 | +14.6% | ✓ right |
| Aug 10, 2020 | OUT | $4.13 | Aug 11, 2020 | −12.3% | ✓ right |
| Aug 7, 2020 | IN | $3.77 | Aug 10, 2020 | +9.5% | ✓ right |
| Aug 5, 2020 | OUT | $4.01 | Aug 7, 2020 | −6.0% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 17 calls shown.
How the play works
- In while the close is less than 2.4 times its 200-day average.
- Out when it reaches 2.4 or more.
Mayer used it to decide when to keep buying, not when to sell. Selling above 2.4 is Be The Puck's reading.
On ordinary stocks a price 2.4 times the 200-day is rare, so this is close to buy and hold.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.