Healthcare

Eli Lilly (LLY)

$1,166.51 −1.4% on the day·+43.3% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Your signal

Buy63 / 100

Buy: 63 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−9% from its 1-year high) scores 70 and lifts it; Plays in (54%) scores 54 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	LLY	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	54%	54	40	21.6
Off the high	−9% from its 1-year high	70	30	21.0
Trend	+8% vs 200-day	68	30	20.4

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for LLY

Factor	LLY	Points	What it is
Plays in	54%	54	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+14% · 29 analysts	49	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.6 · buy	68	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	39.1×	27	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E	24.5×	20	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.14	61	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	13.8×	11	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book	32.4×	3	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yield	0.3%	8	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Earnings growth	+95%	80	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth	+50%	85	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin	34%	88	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity	79%	97	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Debt to equity	1.62×	14	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Off the high	−9% from its 1-year high	70	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+8% vs 200-day	68	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+43%	73	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	1/10 · low	90	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on LLY

54 of the 100 plays hold LLY right now.
The momentum plays mostly say in; the breakout and pattern plays mostly say out.
It closed 8% above its 200-day average and 9% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low: it carries 2.1× as much debt as equity.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $1,330.14, 14% above the close (29 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in54 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow1 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.08×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+8%). Higher than on 61% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about LLY now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn LLY: right 13 of 42 · Out since Feb 3, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn LLY: right 23 of 65 · In since Aug 19, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn LLY: right 14 of 31 · In since Nov 28, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn LLY: right 114 of 188 · Out since Aug 6, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn LLY: right 26 of 40 · In since Sep 10, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn LLY: right 69 of 138 · Out since Jun 12, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn LLY: right 28 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

LLY, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved LLY lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Wed Oct 7+2.9% against the S&P 5001.4× a normal day

LLY +2.7%, the S&P 500 −0.2% that session; +1.0% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

Price target raisedAnalyst rating · Oct 7, 10:30 am ET
Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $1,430 from $1,419, keeping Overweight.
After price target raises, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 55% of the time (2,637 of 4,768 on 215 stocks; median move +0.2%). Low predictability
LLY after price target raises: ahead of its index at the first close after the news 29 of 54 times (median +0.2%).
HeadlineSeeking Alpha · Oct 7, 10:07 am ET
Eli Lilly: Losing Weight, Gaining Expectations
HeadlineSeeking Alpha · Oct 7, 9:45 am ET
Eli Lilly: Buy The GLP-1 Growth Premium
HeadlineSeeking Alpha · Oct 7, 6:03 am ET
Eli Lilly: Dominance Has A Price

Thu Sep 24+2.7% against the S&P 5001.2× a normal day

LLY +2.7%, the S&P 500 0.0% that session; +1.2% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on LLY was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for LLY starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved 0.0%. The 17 other Healthcare stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.5% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Mon Sep 14+2.5% against the S&P 5001.0× a normal day

LLY +2.0%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session; +3.4% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on LLY was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for LLY starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.5%. The 17 other Healthcare stocks Be The Puck covers moved +1.9% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Next earnings report

Thu Oct 29, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 7.16.

Over its last 12 reports, LLY's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±6.6% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 8 times.
LLY after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 15 of 23 times (median +1.7%).
LLY after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 10 of 16 times (median −2.0%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on LLY

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following20 of 30 in Breakouts & channels3 of 15 in Momentum14 of 17 in Mean reversion6 of 15 in Volume & money flow6 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns0 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on LLY went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −1.9%	Exit below $1,166.50 (0.0%)	26% 171/661	+5.2% / +18.3%	−48.4% / −50.9%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $1,137.64 (−2.5%)	24% 31/129	+6.9% / +18.3%	−53.3% / −50.9%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −1.9%	Exit below $1,164.25 (−0.2%)	22% 93/421	+5.0% / +18.3%	−47.6% / −50.9%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,176.53 (+0.9%)	18% 31/170	+1.1% / +18.3%	−52.9% / −50.9%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	May 15, 2026 +16.2%	Exit below $1,097.46 (−5.9%)	17% 16/93	+10.4% / +18.3%	−29.5% / −50.9%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	May 15, 2026 +16.2%	Exit below $1,158.41 (−0.7%)	25% 22/87	+9.6% / +18.3%	−27.6% / −50.9%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +36.0%	Exit below $1,076.84 (−7.7%)	21% 9/43	+13.0% / +18.3%	−40.1% / −50.9%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Apr 30, 2026 +25.2%	Exit below $1,075.22 (−7.8%)	15% 22/145	+11.5% / +18.3%	−34.4% / −50.9%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Nov 5, 2025 +26.8%	Not on one close	29% 9/31	+11.6% / +18.3%	−37.8% / −50.9%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Apr 30, 2026 +25.2%	Exit below $1,075.22 (−7.8%)	16% 19/117	+11.9% / +18.3%	−28.0% / −50.9%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 −0.7%	Enter above $1,170.86 (+0.4%)	32% 50/156	+5.1% / +18.3%	−49.0% / −50.9%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −1.9%	Exit below $1,162.94 (−0.3%)	23% 187/816	+2.4% / +18.3%	−61.5% / −50.9%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 −1.5%	Exit below $1,082.49 (−7.2%)	41% 95/234	+13.6% / +18.3%	−35.6% / −50.9%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2025 +38.8%	Not on one close	14% 4/29	+15.1% / +18.8%	−34.5% / −50.9%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −1.4%	Exit below $1,147.88 (−1.6%)	21% 37/173	+3.1% / +18.3%	−45.5% / −50.9%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 +3.9%	Enter above $1,200.11 (+2.9%)	27% 34/128	+6.3% / +18.3%	−40.2% / −50.9%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 +3.8%	Enter above $1,210.80 (+3.8%)	36% 58/161	+6.1% / +18.3%	−38.9% / −50.9%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −1.9%	Not on one close	39% 120/306	+7.8% / +18.3%	−32.5% / −50.9%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 −1.3%	Exit below $1,182.27 (+1.4%)	32% 193/596	+1.5% / +18.3%	−64.8% / −50.9%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +2.1%	Exit below $1,113.29 (−4.6%)	36% 82/230	+7.9% / +18.3%	−38.1% / −50.9%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −0.3%	Enter above $1,202.20 (+3.1%)	36% 177/485	+6.6% / +18.3%	−37.2% / −50.9%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jul 30, 2026 +1.1%	Not on one close	29% 56/192	+1.4% / +18.3%	−47.1% / −50.9%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −1.1%	Exit below $1,147.65 (−1.6%)	27% 54/201	+5.4% / +18.3%	−47.3% / −50.9%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Sep 25, 2026 −1.4%	Exit below $1,136.13 (−2.6%)	35% 66/187	+8.0% / +18.3%	−35.0% / −50.9%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −0.3%	Enter above $1,177.43 (+0.9%)	30% 71/240	+9.2% / +18.3%	−40.3% / −50.9%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 −1.3%	Exit below $1,139.85 (−2.3%)	37% 90/244	+7.1% / +18.3%	−39.2% / −50.9%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −1.1%	Exit below $1,148.95 (−1.5%)	26% 50/189	+3.3% / +18.3%	−46.4% / −50.9%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −1.9%	Exit below $1,127.19 (−3.4%)	18% 22/125	+6.5% / +18.3%	−55.1% / −50.9%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Jul 10, 2026 −1.7%	Enter above $1,193.30 (+2.3%)	36% 77/213	+6.9% / +18.3%	−30.3% / −50.9%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Feb 3, 2026 +16.8%	Not on one close	31% 13/42	+0.2% / +18.3%	−20.0% / −50.9%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 +3.8%	Enter above $1,215.00 (+4.2%)	34% 47/140	+4.8% / +18.3%	−39.8% / −50.9%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 −1.9%	Enter above $1,292.65 (+10.8%)	34% 50/148	+4.2% / +18.3%	−39.1% / −50.9%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 +3.8%	Enter above $1,292.65 (+10.8%)	30% 33/110	+4.1% / +18.3%	−34.9% / −50.9%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +0.8%	Enter above $1,280.35 (+9.8%)	27% 32/118	+3.6% / +18.3%	−28.4% / −50.9%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Feb 3, 2026 +16.8%	Enter above $1,292.65 (+10.8%)	30% 40/134	+0.1% / +18.3%	−44.3% / −50.9%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Jul 14, 2026 +1.4%	Enter above $1,251.54 (+7.3%)	33% 45/136	+8.3% / +18.3%	−23.4% / −50.9%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 −1.9%	Enter above $1,201.24 (+3.0%)	29% 61/212	+2.7% / +18.3%	−49.5% / −50.9%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −1.9%	Exit below $1,114.23 (−4.5%)	35% 71/205	+3.8% / +18.3%	−41.1% / −50.9%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +0.8%	Enter above $1,216.22 (+4.3%)	40% 71/179	+6.9% / +18.3%	−34.0% / −50.9%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Aug 19, 2026 −8.9%	Exit below $1,107.80 (−5.0%)	35% 23/65	+9.2% / +18.3%	−40.4% / −50.9%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −1.9%	Exit below $1,114.50 (−4.5%)	26% 86/334	+5.9% / +18.3%	−39.5% / −50.9%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Jun 9, 2026 +2.1%	Not on one close	34% 63/184	+4.0% / +18.3%	−15.4% / −50.9%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above $1,276.00 (+9.4%)	37% 46/126	+3.8% / +18.3%	−19.2% / −50.9%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,188.70 (+1.9%)	32% 223/688	+6.2% / +18.3%	−38.6% / −50.9%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Apr 27, 2021 +575.1%	Enter above $1,201.24 (+3.0%)	27% 8/30	+1.8% / +18.3%	−12.2% / −50.9%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +36.0%	Exit below $889.11 (−23.8%)	33% 9/27	+16.7% / +18.5%	−26.6% / −50.9%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +9.0%	Not on one close	45% 14/31	+14.2% / +18.5%	−34.3% / −50.9%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	May 29, 2026 +5.7%	Exit below $988.62 (−15.2%)	31% 9/29	+11.4% / +18.5%	−33.8% / −50.9%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +0.8%	Exit below $1,162.73 (−0.3%)	18% 31/177	+6.2% / +18.3%	−32.8% / −50.9%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	May 29, 2026 +5.7%	Exit below $1,088.29 (−6.7%)	35% 8/23	+8.8% / +18.3%	−52.4% / −50.9%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −1.1%	Exit below $1,163.25 (−0.3%)	30% 37/123	+7.7% / +18.3%	−37.2% / −50.9%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −1.9%	Exit below $1,140.71 (−2.2%)	34% 147/434	+7.8% / +18.3%	−38.6% / −50.9%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,177.24 (+0.9%)	29% 219/760	+5.0% / +18.3%	−47.8% / −50.9%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 −1.3%	Exit below $1,098.39 (−5.8%)	41% 120/290	+9.7% / +18.3%	−37.8% / −50.9%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +9.0%	Not on one close	50% 3/6	+18.8% / +19.1%	−36.2% / −50.9%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −0.3%	Enter above $1,194.90 (+2.4%)	27% 170/622	+2.8% / +18.3%	−37.3% / −50.9%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 −1.4%	Exit below $939.42 (−19.5%)	40% 99/248	+8.1% / +18.3%	−39.5% / −50.9%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −1.1%	Exit below $1,148.03 (−1.6%)	28% 55/199	+5.4% / +18.3%	−45.4% / −50.9%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Apr 30, 2026 +25.2%	Exit below $1,106.55 (−5.1%)	30% 24/81	+13.8% / +18.5%	−37.7% / −50.9%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +9.0%	Not on one close	43% 9/21	+15.7% / +20.2%	−34.3% / −50.9%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +0.8%	Not on one close	47% 15/32	+13.2% / +18.5%	−34.3% / −50.9%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −1.9%	Exit below $1,132.87 (−2.9%)	35% 115/328	+8.3% / +18.3%	−37.4% / −50.9%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	May 29, 2026 +5.7%	Not on one close	77% 33/43	+10.7% / +18.3%	−49.2% / −50.9%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +0.8%	Buy $1,075.22–$1,146.56 (−1.7%)	60% 207/346	+3.8% / +18.3%	−19.3% / −50.9%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −1.9%	Buy $1,075.22–$1,157.49 (−0.8%)	63% 258/408	+8.3% / +18.3%	−28.0% / −50.9%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Aug 6, 2026 −2.0%	Buy below $1,131.72 (−3.0%)	61% 114/188	+7.8% / +18.3%	−34.4% / −50.9%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 +0.6%	Not on one close	64% 111/173	+10.7% / +18.3%	−42.0% / −50.9%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +0.8%	Not on one close	66% 196/295	+11.0% / +18.3%	−36.7% / −50.9%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Sep 4, 2026 +1.5%	Not on one close	62% 56/90	+10.8% / +18.3%	−37.0% / −50.9%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +3,736.6%	Sell above $2,598.82 (+122.8%)	–	+18.3% / +18.3%	−50.9% / −50.9%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2025 +78.1%	Buy below $850.51 (−27.1%)	71% 10/14	+2.7% / +18.3%	−3.6% / −50.9%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −1.9%	Exit below $1,166.27 (0.0%)	50% 159/321	+14.8% / +18.3%	−32.7% / −50.9%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −0.3%	Not on one close	55% 234/423	+10.9% / +18.3%	−50.1% / −50.9%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +0.8%	Buy below $1,166.50 (0.0%)	56% 964/1712	+3.0% / +18.3%	−32.1% / −50.9%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 −1.3%	Not on one close	53% 54/102	+7.5% / +18.3%	−23.3% / −50.9%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −1.4%	Exit below $1,166.20 (0.0%)	38% 410/1077	+9.3% / +18.3%	−45.6% / −50.9%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +0.8%	Buy below $1,180.42 (+1.2%)	56% 74/133	+9.8% / +18.3%	−40.6% / −50.9%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $1,166.50 (0.0%)	25% 185/746	+6.9% / +18.3%	−49.4% / −50.9%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Aug 6, 2026 −2.0%	Enter above $1,166.52 (+0.0%)	40% 85/212	+9.2% / +18.3%	−26.0% / −50.9%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Sep 10, 2026 +3.9%	Not on one close	65% 26/40	+7.6% / +18.3%	−53.7% / −50.9%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	OUT	Jul 22, 2026 +0.4%	Not on one close	37% 42/115	+13.8% / +18.3%	−43.6% / −50.9%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $1,175.15 (+0.7%)	27% 197/719	+4.4% / +18.3%	−54.0% / −50.9%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −1.9%	Exit below $1,131.31 (−3.0%)	31% 115/372	+4.3% / +18.3%	−44.9% / −50.9%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −1.4%	Exit below $1,166.50 (0.0%)	35% 229/653	+4.1% / +18.3%	−44.6% / −50.9%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Sep 10, 2026 +3.9%	Not on one close	30% 35/115	+10.9% / +18.3%	−51.9% / −50.9%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +0.8%	Sell $1,037.70–$1,175.85 (+0.8%)	34% 319/946	+3.9% / +18.3%	−46.3% / −50.9%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Jun 12, 2026 +3.1%	Not on one close	50% 69/138	+9.1% / +18.3%	−34.9% / −50.9%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +0.8%	Not on one close	33% 36/110	+5.0% / +18.3%	−37.4% / −50.9%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Feb 12, 2026 +12.9%	Not on one close	46% 23/50	+3.2% / +18.3%	−12.4% / −50.9%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +25.2%	Buys Oct 30	65% 28/43	+12.4% / +18.3%	−31.4% / −50.9%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −1.9%	Window opens Apr 1	48% 21/44	+9.6% / +18.3%	−31.4% / −50.9%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 24, 2026 +32.4%	Window opens Oct 16	56% 24/43	+9.6% / +18.3%	−31.4% / −50.9%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +12.5%	Buys Dec 23	30% 13/44	+1.7% / +18.3%	−10.0% / −50.9%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +2.0%	Buys Oct 29	50% 262/526	+5.7% / +18.3%	−18.2% / −50.9%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +0.8%	Sells Jun 30	55% 6/11	+5.0% / +18.3%	−16.8% / −50.9%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +1.5%	Buys Nov 24	48% 191/400	+1.0% / +18.3%	−22.9% / −50.9%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +228.1%	Not on one close	30% 6/20	+11.8% / +18.3%	−34.5% / −50.9%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −1.4%	Sells Oct 16	52% 1186/2284	+11.4% / +18.3%	−59.7% / −50.9%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +2.5%	Buys Oct 27	48% 167/348	+3.2% / +18.3%	−11.3% / −50.9%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +2.1%	Sells Oct 16	53% 286/541	+10.0% / +18.3%	−33.3% / −50.9%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+18.3%	−50.9%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow1 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt1/3
Run-up0/2

It carries 2.1× as much debt as equity.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 · back to its old high Sep 2012

LLY−50%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Apr 2020

LLY−15%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Feb 2022 · back to its old high Mar 2022

LLY−13%

S&P 500−25%

Beta0.56Moves about 0.6× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture14%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 14% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+27%
From 52-week high−9%
Debt to equity2.07×
Net debt / EBITDA1.1×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover38.0×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Drug Manufacturers - General · Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$1.0T	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$79.7B	Total sales. The market values it at 13.1× sales.
P/E ratio	39.1×	Buyers pay $39 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	24.5×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	32.4×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	33.5%	Keeps 34¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+49.6%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+94.8%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	78.8%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$11.1B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$26.5B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$54.9B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$8.9B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	2.07×	Above about 1.5× is heavily borrowed; above 3× is fragile in a downturn.
Interest cover	38.0×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$1,330.14	14% above the close, from 29 analysts (range $930.00 to $1,600.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.30%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

LLY: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Healthcare: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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