Oct 13 close Sign in

Market indexes

Russell 2000 index (Russell 2000)

An index is a scoreboard, not something you can buy directly. Investors hold it through an index fund or ETF, which tracks it closely. The plays read the index itself.

Your signal

Hold45 / 100

Hold: 45 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−9% from its 1-year high) scores 69 and lifts it; Plays in (29%) scores 29 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weightRussell 2000PointsWeightAdds
Plays in29%294011.6
Off the high−9% from its 1-year high693020.7
Trend−0% vs 200-day433012.9

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for Russell 2000
FactorRussell 2000PointsWhat it is
Plays in29%29The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside––How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating––The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E––Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0.
Forward P/E––Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0.
PEG––P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth.
Price to sales––Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher.
Price to book––Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher.
Dividend yield––Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0.
Earnings growth––Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher.
Revenue growth––Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher.
Profit margin––Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher.
Return on equity––Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher.
Debt to equity––Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0.
Off the high−9% from its 1-year high69How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend−0% vs 200-day43How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum+13%49The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure1/10 · low90The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in29 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow1 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.00×Price ÷ its 200-day average (0%). Higher than on 30% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about Russell 2000 now.

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

Russell 2000, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on Russell 2000

All 100 plays, by family.

Calls right: how often the play's calls on Russell 2000 went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

PlayCallSinceNext moveCalls rightAnnual returnWorst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · dailyOUTAug 28, 2026 −6.4%Enter above 2,836.28 (+1.9%)24% 172/713−2.2% / +7.0%−60.5% / −59.9%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weeklyOUTSep 18, 2026 −2.7%Enter above 2,940.80 (+5.7%)31% 34/109+5.4% / +7.0%−26.2% / −59.9%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · dailyOUTAug 28, 2026 −6.4%Enter above 2,883.49 (+3.6%)27% 95/353+4.2% / +7.0%−32.1% / −59.9%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · dailyOUTAug 28, 2026 −6.4%Enter above 2,996.63 (+7.7%)15% 17/116+1.0% / +7.0%−22.8% / −59.9%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weeklyOUTOct 2, 2026 −1.7%Enter above 2,872.62 (+3.2%)25% 20/81+3.7% / +7.0%−27.4% / −59.9%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weeklyOUTSep 11, 2026 −4.2%Enter above 2,987.97 (+7.4%)27% 21/79+2.5% / +7.0%−22.3% / −59.9%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-endINJul 31, 2025 +25.9%Exit below 2,796.76 (+0.5%)32% 13/40+5.4% / +7.0%−27.1% / −59.9%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Enter above 2,792.62 (+0.3%)16% 29/179+3.5% / +7.0%−33.7% / −59.9%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · dailyINAug 6, 2025 +25.3%Not on one close37% 11/30+2.4% / +7.0%−49.5% / −59.9%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Enter above 2,792.62 (+0.3%)19% 23/121+3.6% / +7.0%−26.7% / −59.9%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weeklyOUTSep 4, 2026 −6.5%Enter above 3,070.46 (+10.3%)39% 54/139+3.4% / +7.0%−32.6% / −59.9%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · dailyOUTAug 28, 2026 −6.4%Enter above 2,848.03 (+2.3%)22% 194/875−5.2% / +7.0%−73.8% / −59.9%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · dailyOUTAug 21, 2026 −7.8%Enter above 2,797.06 (+0.5%)38% 100/261+5.1% / +7.0%−37.6% / −59.9%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · dailyINJun 27, 2025 +28.1%Not on one close38% 10/26+5.4% / +7.0%−37.7% / −59.9%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 −4.7%Enter above 3,531.02 (+26.9%)29% 42/147+2.8% / +7.0%−30.6% / −59.9%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · dailyOUTSep 10, 2026 −3.7%Not on one close33% 39/119+3.5% / +7.0%−34.7% / −59.9%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · dailyOUTAug 31, 2026 −5.9%Enter above 2,881.99 (+3.5%)35% 68/193+3.0% / +7.0%−34.0% / −59.9%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · dailyOUTAug 28, 2026 −6.4%Not on one close43% 146/339+3.2% / +7.0%−28.0% / −59.9%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · dailyOUTAug 28, 2026 −6.4%Enter above 2,856.11 (+2.6%)34% 181/531+2.5% / +7.0%−49.3% / −59.9%
AroonTushar S. Chande · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −6.0%Enter above 2,952.63 (+6.1%)39% 77/197+5.9% / +7.0%−25.9% / −59.9%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 −0.4%Enter above 2,856.89 (+2.6%)38% 202/538+2.3% / +7.0%−41.6% / −59.9%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTMay 15, 2026 −0.4%Enter above 2,894.93 (+4.0%)34% 42/125+0.0% / +7.0%−27.2% / −59.9%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 −4.7%Enter above 3,216.22 (+15.6%)31% 57/183+3.9% / +7.0%−33.2% / −59.9%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weeklyOUTSep 11, 2026 −4.2%Enter above 2,919.25 (+4.9%)37% 64/171+2.0% / +7.0%−39.3% / −59.9%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTSep 2, 2026 −5.7%Enter above 3,021.53 (+8.6%)32% 79/245+2.7% / +7.0%−36.9% / −59.9%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · dailyOUTAug 20, 2026 −7.0%Enter above 2,859.12 (+2.7%)36% 100/279+2.4% / +7.0%−53.5% / −59.9%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 −4.7%Enter above 3,183.14 (+14.4%)33% 51/156+4.0% / +7.0%−29.9% / −59.9%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 −3.8%Enter above 3,686.29 (+32.4%)28% 30/107+3.1% / +7.0%−31.9% / −59.9%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · dailyOUTJul 2, 2026 −7.1%Not on one close36% 81/227+3.7% / +7.0%−25.0% / −59.9%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTOct 14, 2025 +11.5%Not on one close50% 7/14+2.0% / +7.0%−3.7% / −59.9%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 −4.7%Enter above 2,905.88 (+4.4%)39% 55/141+3.8% / +7.0%−35.9% / −59.9%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTAug 20, 2026 −7.0%Enter above 2,988.17 (+7.4%)27% 47/177−0.4% / +7.0%−30.0% / −59.9%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTAug 28, 2026 −6.4%Enter above 3,069.72 (+10.3%)29% 36/123+0.8% / +7.0%−34.3% / −59.9%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTAug 31, 2026 −5.9%Enter above 3,068.42 (+10.2%)26% 33/127+1.1% / +7.0%−31.2% / −59.9%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · dailyOUTJul 29, 2026 −4.2%Not on one close30% 40/133+0.6% / +7.0%−40.5% / −59.9%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · dailyOUTJun 5, 2026 −1.8%Enter above 2,927.93 (+5.2%)30% 54/183+0.8% / +7.0%−25.7% / −59.9%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTAug 20, 2026 −7.0%Enter above 2,898.28 (+4.1%)29% 60/207−1.2% / +7.0%−48.1% / −59.9%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · dailyOUTAug 31, 2026 −5.9%Enter above 2,892.26 (+3.9%)29% 61/207+1.3% / +7.0%−36.2% / −59.9%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTAug 28, 2026 −6.4%Enter above 2,874.29 (+3.3%)32% 71/221+1.0% / +7.0%−42.4% / −59.9%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · dailyINApr 23, 2025 +45.0%Exit below 2,398.08 (−13.8%)40% 16/40+6.0% / +7.0%−36.9% / −59.9%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTAug 28, 2026 −6.4%Enter above 2,877.45 (+3.4%)26% 109/419+0.4% / +7.0%−34.2% / −59.9%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · dailyOUTMay 7, 2026 −2.0%Not on one close23% 57/2440.0% / +7.0%−19.8% / −59.9%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · dailyOUTJul 8, 2026 −5.9%Not on one close30% 31/102+1.1% / +7.0%−20.0% / −59.9%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · dailyOUTSep 23, 2026 −1.9%Enter above 2,805.85 (+0.8%)31% 249/796−2.7% / +7.0%−65.4% / −59.9%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTAug 2, 2024 +32.0%Not on one close22% 9/40+0.5% / +7.0%−17.4% / −59.9%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-endINDec 31, 2025 +12.1%Exit below 2,570.94 (−7.6%)35% 14/40+4.1% / +7.0%−33.1% / −59.9%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-endINSep 30, 2025 +14.2%Not on one close53% 16/30+4.2% / +7.0%−42.6% / −59.9%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 −0.5%Enter above 2,858.67 (+2.7%)37% 10/27+3.4% / +7.1%−31.1% / −59.9%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −4.7%Not on one close21% 39/183+3.8% / +7.0%−29.9% / −59.9%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-endINAug 29, 2025 +17.6%Exit below 2,608.14 (−6.3%)33% 6/18+1.6% / +7.0%−50.0% / −59.9%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weeklyOUTAug 28, 2026 −6.4%Enter above 3,027.78 (+8.8%)32% 36/111+4.6% / +7.0%−28.4% / −59.9%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · dailyINOct 5, 2026 −2.2%Exit below 2,771.94 (−0.4%)35% 154/446+3.6% / +7.0%−43.9% / −59.9%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −0.4%Enter above 2,815.93 (+1.2%)27% 228/853−3.2% / +7.0%−65.2% / −59.9%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.8%Exit below 2,671.22 (−4.0%)43% 129/302+4.4% / +7.0%−34.5% / −59.9%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-endINNov 30, 2023 +53.9%Not on one close44% 7/16+5.1% / +7.0%−46.2% / −59.9%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · dailyOUTAug 17, 2026 −9.0%Enter above 2,919.35 (+4.9%)26% 170/654−2.3% / +7.0%−55.2% / −59.9%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · dailyOUTAug 26, 2026 −7.4%Enter above 2,817.80 (+1.2%)39% 104/267+2.7% / +7.0%−42.1% / −59.9%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 −4.7%Enter above 3,235.38 (+16.2%)31% 56/179+4.5% / +7.0%−32.7% / −59.9%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 −0.5%Enter above 2,805.38 (+0.8%)33% 27/81+5.7% / +7.0%−26.0% / −59.9%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-endINSep 30, 2025 +14.2%Not on one close43% 12/28+1.9% / +6.5%−42.6% / −59.9%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · dailyINSep 30, 2025 +14.2%Not on one close56% 20/36+3.4% / +7.0%−43.2% / −59.9%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · dailyOUTAug 20, 2026 −7.0%Enter above 2,833.82 (+1.8%)33% 114/349+3.3% / +7.0%−38.9% / −59.9%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINOct 1, 2026 −0.8%Not on one close64% 21/33+3.4% / +7.0%−59.9% / −59.9%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTOct 2, 2026 −1.7%Not on one close61% 193/318+3.2% / +7.0%−19.1% / −59.9%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyINOct 7, 2026 −0.4%Sell above 2,830.30 (+1.7%)64% 273/426+4.7% / +7.0%−48.5% / −59.9%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · dailyINAug 31, 2026 −5.9%Sell above 2,827.56 (+1.6%)65% 133/205+4.1% / +7.0%−39.9% / −59.9%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · dailyINSep 2, 2026 −5.7%Not on one close58% 94/163+2.6% / +7.0%−43.3% / −59.9%
Williams %RLarry Williams · dailyINAug 25, 2026 −7.5%Not on one close65% 199/305+5.3% / +7.0%−47.5% / −59.9%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · dailyOUTApr 14, 2026 +2.9%Not on one close68% 49/72+7.0% / +7.0%−57.4% / −59.9%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · dailyINNov 22, 2004 +347.8%Sell above 6,749.70 (+142.5%)–+7.0% / +7.0%−59.9% / −59.9%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · dailyOUTJun 16, 2020 +91.7%Buy below 2,672.03 (−4.0%)57% 8/14+2.1% / +7.0%−16.9% / −59.9%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINOct 5, 2026 −2.2%Not on one close44% 136/308+0.6% / +7.0%−63.7% / −59.9%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 −1.7%Not on one close55% 222/407+1.0% / +7.0%−47.1% / −59.9%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Buy below 2,783.34 (0.0%)59% 1153/1956+8.1% / +7.0%−27.1% / −59.9%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyINSep 1, 2026 −4.7%Sell above 2,866.78 (+3.0%)61% 63/103+5.3% / +7.0%−18.4% / −59.9%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Enter above 2,812.43 (+1.0%)35% 370/1058−0.3% / +7.0%−50.0% / −59.9%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-endINJul 31, 2026 −5.0%Sell above 2,853.26 (+2.5%)61% 83/135+6.4% / +7.0%−49.6% / −59.9%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Enter above 2,783.39 (+0.0%)25% 226/907−1.8% / +7.0%−64.2% / −59.9%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · dailyOUTJul 29, 2026 −4.2%Not on one close34% 65/191+2.0% / +7.0%−44.5% / −59.9%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · dailyOUTJul 15, 2025 +26.2%Not on one close50% 10/20+4.3% / +7.0%−56.9% / −59.9%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · dailyINSep 18, 2025 +12.8%Not on one close34% 20/58+1.9% / +7.0%−47.1% / −59.9%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 −1.7%Enter above 2,812.11 (+1.0%)25% 232/939−3.1% / +7.0%−66.8% / −59.9%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · dailyOUTAug 26, 2026 −7.4%Enter above 2,999.67 (+7.8%)36% 127/349+1.6% / +7.0%−46.6% / −59.9%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −6.0%Not on one close34% 204/603+1.5% / +7.0%−50.5% / −59.9%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · dailyINAug 27, 2025 +17.3%Not on one close26% 28/108+3.0% / +7.0%−48.3% / −59.9%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · dailyOUTOct 12, 2026 −0.4%Buy 2,788.22–2,985.19 (+0.2%)35% 356/1018−0.5% / +7.0%−66.5% / −59.9%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · dailyOUTApr 21, 2026 +0.7%Enter above 2,793.51 (+0.4%)48% 68/142+2.5% / +7.0%−55.0% / −59.9%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −1.7%Exit below 2,775.34 (−0.3%)30% 34/113+1.5% / +7.0%−22.4% / −59.9%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTApr 9, 2026 +5.6%Not on one close54% 30/56+2.3% / +7.0%−10.5% / −59.9%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 30, 2026 −0.6%Buys Oct 3051% 22/43+5.5% / +7.0%−44.5% / −59.9%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −1.7%Window opens Apr 157% 25/44+5.2% / +7.0%−47.5% / −59.9%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · dailyOUTMay 12, 2026 −2.1%Window opens Oct 1653% 23/43+5.6% / +7.0%−41.9% / −59.9%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTJan 5, 2026 +9.2%Buys Dec 2343% 19/44+1.8% / +7.0%−6.9% / −59.9%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 −2.2%Buys Oct 2948% 252/526+0.5% / +7.0%−30.4% / −59.9%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINSep 30, 2026 −0.5%Sells Jun 3045% 5/11+3.8% / +7.0%−25.9% / −59.9%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −6.5%Buys Nov 2451% 205/400+3.0% / +7.0%−8.9% / −59.9%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-endINDec 30, 2022 +58.0%Not on one close35% 7/20+3.5% / +7.0%−44.0% / −59.9%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyINOct 12, 2026 −0.4%Sells Oct 1652% 1177/2284+3.2% / +7.0%−44.8% / −59.9%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 −2.6%Buys Oct 2746% 161/348+3.2% / +7.0%−8.2% / −59.9%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −1.7%Sells Oct 1648% 260/541+3.1% / +7.0%−43.5% / −59.9%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmarkINJan 3, 2005Always in–+7.0%−59.9%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works
ExposureLow1 of 10 points
  • Market swings1/3
  • Past crashes0/2
  • Debt0/3
  • Run-up0/2

Nothing on the checklist stands out.

Past crashes, peak to low

Dot-com bust Mar 2000 to Oct 2002 · back to its old high Jan 2004

Russell 2000−43%
S&P 500−49%

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 · back to its old high Apr 2011

Russell 2000−59%
S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Nov 2020

Russell 2000−41%
S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jun 2022 · back to its old high Oct 2024

Russell 2000−27%
S&P 500−25%
  • Beta1.06Moves about 1.1× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
  • Downside capture180%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 180% as much on average.
  • Two-year change+25%
  • From 52-week high−9%

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

Who would feel a crash first

The U.S. stocks Be The Puck covers, ranked by crash exposure. Be The Puck covers a sample of names, not the full index.

StockExposureBeta2-yr changePlays inWhy
RKLBRocket LabVery high 10/102.51+562%26 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 2.7× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 562% in
OPTTOcean Power TechnologiesVery high 9/1016.32+380%30 of 100 inmoves about 16.3× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 380% in
CARAvis BudgetVery high 8/101.85+30%22 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit
CRWDCrowdStrikeVery high 8/101.90+226%62 of 100 inmoves about 1.9× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 226% in
EOSEEos EnergyVery high 8/102.52−26%15 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 3.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit
FLNCFluence EnergyVery high 8/102.08−69%24 of 100 inmoves about 2.1× its index; fell about 3.2× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
GPROGoProVery high 8/102.77−9%32 of 100 inmoves about 2.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
LITELumentumVery high 8/102.32+1,348%55 of 100 inmoves about 2.3× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 1348% in
MARAMARA HoldingsVery high 8/102.01−43%14 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 2.6× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
RIOTRiot PlatformsVery high 8/102.37+98%19 of 100 inmoves about 2.4× its index; fell about 2.4× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
AMDAMDVery high 7/102.04+261%57 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 261% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
INTCIntelVery high 7/102.00+336%34 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 2.4×; is up 336% in t
MSTRStrategy (MicroStrategy)Very high 7/101.50−28%40 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
MUMicronVery high 7/102.52+796%40 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 796% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
QUTXQuantum XVery high 7/10−6.16+800%20 of 100 infell about 2.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit doesn't cover its interest;
WSCWillScotVery high 7/101.76−51%25 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 4.4× as much debt as equity; operating profit cover
APPAppLovinHigh 6/103.12+85%16 of 100 inmoves about 3.1× its index; fell about 3.2× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.6× as much debt as equity
AXONAxon EnterpriseHigh 6/101.52−5%20 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 1.2×
BTDRBitdeer TechnologiesHigh 6/102.41+22%12 of 100 inmoves about 2.4× its index; carries 2.2× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 1.7×
CRWVCoreWeaveHigh 6/101.71–11 of 98 inmoves about 1.7× its index; carries 15.5× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 0.0×
HTZHertzHigh 6/101.20−37%34 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit
LRCXLam ResearchHigh 6/102.04+269%43 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 269% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
NPCENeuroPaceHigh 6/100.94+92%26 of 100 infell about 2.8× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 3.7× as much debt as equity; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
PLTRPalantirHigh 6/102.48+380%68 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 2.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 380% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
SBUXStarbucksHigh 6/101.13+1%28 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity)
STXSeagate TechnologyHigh 6/101.99+601%29 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; is up 601% in two year
TERTeradyneHigh 6/101.70+190%45 of 100 inmoves about 1.7× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 190% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
WDCWestern DigitalHigh 6/102.19+680%28 of 100 inmoves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 680% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
ASMLASML HoldingHigh 5/101.52+108%46 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 108% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
BKNGBooking HoldingsHigh 5/101.14−7%23 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity)
HOLOMicroCloud HologramHigh 5/102.89−99%12 of 100 inmoves about 2.9× its index; fell about 3.3× as far as its index in past crashes
LSCCLattice SemiconductorHigh 5/102.03+133%47 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 3.7×; is up 133% in t
MCHPMicrochip TechnologyHigh 5/102.00+0%31 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 2.3×
MRVLMarvell TechnologyHigh 5/102.20+265%63 of 100 inmoves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 265% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
NBISNebius GroupHigh 5/102.73–30 of 98 inmoves about 2.7× its index; carries 2.2× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 1.2×
NXPINXP SemiconductorsHigh 5/101.53−1%23 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes
PRSOPerasoHigh 5/100.80−77%16 of 100 infell about 2.0× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
TSLATeslaHigh 5/101.82+72%45 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes
ALABAstera LabsModerate 4/102.78+388%46 of 99 inmoves about 2.8× its index; is up 388% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
ALNYAlnylam PharmaceuticalsModerate 4/100.96−21%13 of 100 incarries 3.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.3×
AMATApplied MaterialsModerate 4/101.69+130%42 of 100 inmoves about 1.7× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 130% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
AVGOBroadcomModerate 4/102.49+100%36 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 100% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
CEGConstellation EnergyModerate 4/101.51+12%54 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; carries 1.7× as much debt as equity
DASHDoorDashModerate 4/101.77+29%41 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index; fell about 2.7× as far as its index in past crashes
DDOGDatadogModerate 4/101.39+118%68 of 100 inmoves about 1.4× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
JPMJPMorgan ChaseModerate 4/101.02+55%37 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 3.7× as much debt as equity
KLACKLAModerate 4/101.86+132%42 of 100 inmoves about 1.9× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 132% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
MARMarriottModerate 4/100.96+44%67 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity)
METAMeta PlatformsModerate 4/101.47+30%57 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes
NAMMNamib MineralsModerate 4/10−2.48–19 of 98 inowes more than it owns (negative equity)
NVDANvidiaModerate 4/102.15+70%54 of 100 inmoves about 2.1× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes
SUPXSuperX AI TechnologyModerate 4/100.03+43%19 of 99 inoperating profit doesn't cover its interest
URIUnited RentalsModerate 4/101.41+32%61 of 100 inmoves about 1.4× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.7× as much debt as equity
ABNBAirbnbModerate 3/101.29+23%48 of 100 inmoves about 1.3× its index; fell about 1.9× as far as its index in past crashes
AMGNAmgenModerate 3/100.41+34%62 of 100 incarries 6.6× as much debt as equity
AMZNAmazonModerate 3/101.47+37%61 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes
ARMArm HoldingsModerate 3/102.82+69%30 of 100 inmoves about 2.8× its index
CARRCarrier GlobalModerate 3/101.23−31%24 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
FCFranklin CoveyModerate 3/101.17−54%46 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
ISRGIntuitive SurgicalModerate 3/101.22−13%54 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes
MELIMercadoLibreModerate 3/101.02−10%48 of 100 infell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 2.0× as much debt as equity
MPWRMonolithic Power SystemsModerate 3/102.20+43%48 of 100 inmoves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes
ORLYO'Reilly AutomotiveModerate 3/100.21+9%34 of 100 inowes more than it owns (negative equity)
PYPLPayPalModerate 3/101.13−29%56 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes
QCOMQualcommModerate 3/101.79+9%32 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index
SNPSSynopsysModerate 3/101.61−8%54 of 100 inmoves about 1.6× its index
SPCXSpaceXModerate 3/10––35 of 59 inoperating profit doesn't cover its interest
STMSTMicroelectronicsModerate 3/101.60+81%36 of 100 inmoves about 1.6× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes
TTWOTake-Two InteractiveModerate 3/100.86+29%22 of 100 inoperating profit doesn't cover its interest
WDAYWorkdayModerate 3/101.08−23%41 of 100 infell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes
ADBEAdobeLow 2/101.05−52%25 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
ADIAnalog DevicesLow 2/101.56+83%64 of 100 inmoves about 1.6× its index
ADSKAutodeskLow 2/101.05−18%48 of 100 infell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes
AEPAmerican Electric PowerLow 2/10−0.03+37%51 of 100 incarries 1.7× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.8×
BKRBaker HughesLow 2/100.64+55%30 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes
CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific PartnersLow 2/100.41+43%57 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.6× as much debt as equity
CDNSCadence Design SystemsLow 2/101.49+18%52 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes
EIXEdison InternationalLow 2/100.20−26%38 of 100 incarries 2.5× as much debt as equity
EXCExelonLow 2/10−0.09+15%38 of 100 incarries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.5×
FERFerrovialLow 2/100.70+28%23 of 100 incarries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 3.4×
FLXSFlexsteel IndustriesLow 2/100.73+118%62 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
GEHCGE HealthCareLow 2/101.25−24%46 of 100 inmoves about 1.3× its index
GOOGLAlphabetLow 2/101.21+118%61 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
HONAHoneywell AerospaceLow 2/10––21 of 59 incarries 1.9× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 3.9×
IDXXIDEXX LaboratoriesLow 2/101.01+9%31 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
INTUIntuitLow 2/100.68−50%33 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes
KDPKeurig Dr PepperLow 2/100.18−5%67 of 100 in
PANWPalo Alto NetworksLow 2/101.30+113%66 of 100 inmoves about 1.3× its index; is up 113% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
RRyder SystemLow 2/101.14+65%40 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index; carries 2.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.7×
SNDKSandiskLow 2/102.54–28 of 98 inmoves about 2.5× its index
XELXcel EnergyLow 2/100.11+28%45 of 100 incarries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.3×
BSXBoston ScientificLow 1/100.77−50%26 of 100 in
CMCSAComcastLow 1/100.50−41%21 of 100 infell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes
CPRTCopartLow 1/100.89−53%16 of 100 in
CSCOCiscoLow 1/100.81+122%67 of 100 inis up 122% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
DXCMDexComLow 1/101.06+23%44 of 100 infell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes
FANGDiamondback EnergyLow 1/100.31+7%51 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes
FTNTFortinetLow 1/101.03+130%74 of 100 inis up 130% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
HONHoneywellLow 1/100.76+1%31 of 100 incarries 2.5× as much debt as equity
LLYEli LillyLow 1/100.56+27%54 of 100 incarries 2.1× as much debt as equity
MDTMedtronicLow 1/100.38+11%49 of 100 in
MSFTMicrosoftLow 1/101.14+33%65 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index
NFLXNetflixLow 1/101.07−3%24 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
NVONovo NordiskLow 1/101.06−66%24 of 100 in
ODFLOld Dominion Freight LineLow 1/100.99−7%43 of 100 in
PDDPDD HoldingsLow 1/100.81−43%45 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
PEPPepsiCoLow 1/100.14−21%28 of 100 incarries 2.5× as much debt as equity
PFEPfizerLow 1/100.37+11%58 of 100 inoperating profit covers interest only 3.8×
ROSTRoss StoresLow 1/100.66+61%29 of 100 infell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes
STHHSTMicroelectronics (currency-hedged ETF)Low 1/101.46–34 of 98 inmoves about 1.5× its index
TMUST-Mobile USLow 1/100.35−25%19 of 100 incarries 2.0× as much debt as equity
TRNSTranscatLow 1/101.00−31%42 of 100 inoperating profit covers interest only 2.7×
TXNTexas InstrumentsLow 1/101.26+48%65 of 100 inmoves about 1.3× its index
AAPLAppleLow 0/101.04+51%66 of 100 in
ADPADPLow 0/100.52+1%59 of 100 in
APAAPA CorpLow 0/100.35+93%74 of 100 in
COSTCostcoLow 0/100.48+9%54 of 100 in
CSXCSXLow 0/100.64+41%46 of 100 in
CTASCintasLow 0/100.70+1%62 of 100 in
FASTFastenalLow 0/100.61+40%63 of 100 in
GILDGilead SciencesLow 0/100.34+84%56 of 100 in
LINLindeLow 0/100.35+7%59 of 100 in
MDLZMondelezLow 0/100.06−7%46 of 100 in
MNSTMonster BeverageLow 0/100.40+69%43 of 100 in
PAYXPaychexLow 0/100.46−18%37 of 100 in
PCARPaccarLow 0/100.75+8%29 of 100 in
REGNRegeneronLow 0/100.63−25%37 of 100 in
ROPRoper TechnologiesLow 0/100.55−32%37 of 100 in
TRIThomson ReutersLow 0/100.54−34%52 of 100 in
VRTXVertex PharmaceuticalsLow 0/100.58+1%33 of 100 in
WMTWalmartLow 0/100.55+43%55 of 100 in
XOMExxon MobilLow 0/100.01+50%77 of 100 in

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