Energy & power

Exxon Mobil (XOM)

$174.08 +1.1% on the day·+59.6% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Your signal

Buy86 / 100

Buy: 86 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (at its 1-year high) scores 100 and lifts it; Plays in (77%) scores 77 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	XOM	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	77%	77	40	30.8
Off the high	at its 1-year high	100	30	30.0
Trend	+16% vs 200-day	84	30	25.2

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for XOM

Factor	XOM	Points	What it is
Plays in	77%	77	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	−0% · 22 analysts	28	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	2.4 · buy	30	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	22.4×	57	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	15.2×	52	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.38	50	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	2.0×	72	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	2.8×	56	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	2.4%	57	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+113%	84	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+44%	82	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	9%	45	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	13%	51	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	0.16×	77	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	at its 1-year high	100	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+16% vs 200-day	84	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+60%	82	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	0/10 · low	100	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on XOM

77 of the 100 plays hold XOM right now.
The trend-following, breakout, momentum and volume plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion plays mostly say out.
It closed 16% above its 200-day average and at a 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $173.64, 0% below the close (22 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in77 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.16×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+16%). Higher than on 89% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about XOM now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn XOM: right 11 of 30 · Out since Mar 20, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn XOM: right 22 of 62 · In since Jul 23, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn XOM: right 14 of 34 · In since Dec 31, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn XOM: right 126 of 188 · Out since Jul 7, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn XOM: right 15 of 26 · Out since Jan 21, 2025 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn XOM: right 55 of 105 · Out since Sep 3, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn XOM: right 24 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

XOM, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved XOM lately

Its biggest move against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Mon Sep 21−4.7% against the S&P 5002.4× a normal day

XOM −3.2%, the S&P 500 +1.5% that session; −3.0% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on XOM was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for XOM starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved +1.5%. The 58 other Energy & power stocks Be The Puck covers moved −1.1% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Fri Oct 30, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 3.76.

Over its last 12 reports, XOM's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±1.5% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 2 times.
XOM after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 14 of 25 times (median +0.2%).
XOM after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 13 of 15 times (median −2.1%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on XOM

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following27 of 30 in Breakouts & channels15 of 15 in Momentum17 of 17 in Mean reversion4 of 15 in Volume & money flow8 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on XOM went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +7.0%	Exit below $165.36 (−5.0%)	26% 173/672	+0.4% / +9.5%	−68.2% / −62.4%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Jul 24, 2026 +11.6%	Exit below $153.37 (−11.9%)	25% 32/130	+2.3% / +9.5%	−62.0% / −62.4%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Jul 13, 2026 +21.2%	Exit below $161.50 (−7.2%)	22% 91/412	+3.1% / +9.5%	−66.3% / −62.4%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Jul 17, 2026 +18.9%	Exit below $162.29 (−6.8%)	19% 23/120	+2.6% / +9.5%	−32.6% / −62.4%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Jul 17, 2026 +18.9%	Exit below $152.82 (−12.2%)	23% 19/82	+5.0% / +9.5%	−38.9% / −62.4%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Jul 17, 2026 +18.9%	Exit below $155.95 (−10.4%)	26% 25/96	+2.5% / +9.5%	−40.7% / −62.4%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2025 +61.9%	Exit below $151.91 (−12.7%)	30% 12/40	+8.2% / +9.5%	−39.1% / −62.4%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Aug 20, 2025 +65.0%	Exit below $149.66 (−14.0%)	14% 28/202	+6.1% / +9.5%	−46.1% / −62.4%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Aug 11, 2025 +70.8%	Not on one close	34% 11/32	+6.8% / +9.5%	−44.0% / −62.4%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2025 +56.9%	Exit below $149.66 (−14.0%)	14% 19/140	+5.5% / +9.5%	−40.8% / −62.4%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Jul 24, 2026 +11.6%	Exit below $163.02 (−6.4%)	35% 51/146	+3.5% / +9.5%	−40.1% / −62.4%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +7.0%	Exit below $169.79 (−2.5%)	23% 189/812	−0.9% / +9.5%	−74.7% / −62.4%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Exit below $162.58 (−6.6%)	36% 96/268	+6.4% / +9.5%	−35.1% / −62.4%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Jun 26, 2025 +64.4%	Not on one close	42% 11/26	+8.7% / +8.6%	−29.1% / −62.4%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Jul 23, 2026 +11.7%	Exit below $140.35 (−19.4%)	30% 43/144	+3.7% / +9.5%	−40.2% / −62.4%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Jul 23, 2026 +11.7%	Exit below $151.36 (−13.1%)	23% 30/130	+3.2% / +9.5%	−54.3% / −62.4%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Jul 16, 2026 +20.0%	Exit below $163.54 (−6.1%)	39% 60/152	+6.8% / +9.5%	−38.5% / −62.4%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +5.8%	Not on one close	40% 129/324	+3.6% / +9.5%	−35.2% / −62.4%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +6.1%	Exit below $153.67 (−11.7%)	35% 217/622	+2.6% / +9.5%	−61.1% / −62.4%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +3.0%	Exit below $155.85 (−10.5%)	34% 72/212	+4.5% / +9.5%	−46.8% / −62.4%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +5.8%	Exit below $161.54 (−7.2%)	35% 180/512	+2.4% / +9.5%	−46.4% / −62.4%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 +11.3%	Not on one close	38% 42/112	+4.1% / +9.5%	−30.9% / −62.4%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Jul 17, 2026 +18.9%	Exit below $137.71 (−20.9%)	29% 55/188	+3.2% / +9.5%	−59.3% / −62.4%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +4.9%	Exit below $162.18 (−6.8%)	33% 63/190	+1.9% / +9.5%	−47.7% / −62.4%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +5.8%	Exit below $148.36 (−14.8%)	32% 78/246	+4.9% / +9.5%	−42.9% / −62.4%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Not on one close	39% 87/224	+4.9% / +9.5%	−50.9% / −62.4%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Jul 17, 2026 +18.9%	Exit below $138.09 (−20.7%)	28% 45/159	+1.3% / +9.5%	−74.4% / −62.4%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Jul 23, 2026 +11.7%	Exit below $96.49 (−44.6%)	27% 31/116	+3.0% / +9.5%	−52.6% / −62.4%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +11.1%	Not on one close	37% 80/216	+5.4% / +9.5%	−26.8% / −62.4%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Mar 20, 2026 +10.5%	Not on one close	37% 11/30	+1.5% / +9.5%	−9.9% / −62.4%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Jul 17, 2026 +18.9%	Exit below $155.85 (−10.5%)	38% 51/134	+6.3% / +9.5%	−40.1% / −62.4%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Exit below $165.05 (−5.2%)	33% 45/136	+3.3% / +9.5%	−29.6% / −62.4%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Aug 17, 2026 +7.8%	Exit below $155.85 (−10.5%)	32% 30/94	+4.3% / +9.5%	−40.7% / −62.4%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Aug 10, 2026 +9.6%	Exit below $162.32 (−6.8%)	28% 29/102	+2.9% / +9.5%	−37.4% / −62.4%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	IN	Jul 13, 2026 +21.2%	Exit below $155.85 (−10.5%)	36% 38/106	+2.6% / +9.5%	−44.1% / −62.4%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Exit below $165.52 (−4.9%)	27% 42/153	+2.2% / +9.5%	−29.0% / −62.4%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Exit below $164.13 (−5.7%)	31% 68/216	+0.7% / +9.5%	−44.4% / −62.4%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Exit below $164.33 (−5.6%)	38% 77/200	+3.4% / +9.5%	−38.2% / −62.4%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Jul 17, 2026 +18.9%	Exit below $164.01 (−5.8%)	40% 69/172	+7.1% / +9.5%	−38.2% / −62.4%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Jul 23, 2026 +11.7%	Exit below $152.91 (−12.2%)	35% 22/62	+5.2% / +9.5%	−42.8% / −62.4%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.3%	Exit below $164.97 (−5.2%)	28% 87/316	+4.0% / +9.5%	−48.2% / −62.4%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $171.39 (−1.5%)	25% 49/199	+0.5% / +9.5%	−32.5% / −62.4%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +3.0%	Exit below $129.47 (−25.6%)	36% 48/132	+0.9% / +9.5%	−23.1% / −62.4%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +6.3%	Exit below $171.01 (−1.8%)	30% 223/748	−0.7% / +9.5%	−76.0% / −62.4%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Exit below $164.13 (−5.7%)	29% 9/31	+1.6% / +9.5%	−6.8% / −62.4%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +47.6%	Exit below $115.24 (−33.8%)	47% 15/32	+6.7% / +9.2%	−36.2% / −62.4%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +47.6%	Not on one close	41% 14/34	+7.0% / +9.2%	−37.3% / −62.4%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Jan 30, 2026 +25.6%	Exit below $128.14 (−26.4%)	55% 12/22	+7.4% / +9.2%	−26.7% / −62.4%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Aug 14, 2026 +9.4%	Exit below $153.76 (−11.7%)	15% 29/190	+1.5% / +9.5%	−55.1% / −62.4%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 +8.2%	Exit below $147.97 (−15.0%)	36% 8/22	+4.1% / +9.5%	−46.2% / −62.4%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +4.9%	Exit below $158.16 (−9.1%)	27% 34/126	+1.3% / +9.5%	−40.9% / −62.4%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +5.8%	Exit below $156.83 (−9.9%)	33% 149/458	+2.7% / +9.5%	−56.5% / −62.4%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +7.4%	Exit below $166.90 (−4.1%)	28% 227/798	−0.2% / +9.5%	−73.2% / −62.4%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Exit below $145.18 (−16.6%)	42% 124/292	+7.5% / +9.5%	−36.7% / −62.4%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +53.2%	Not on one close	24% 4/17	+8.7% / +8.8%	−35.3% / −62.4%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.3%	Exit below $166.40 (−4.4%)	27% 176/660	0.0% / +9.5%	−58.0% / −62.4%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Exit below $136.79 (−21.4%)	40% 105/260	+6.3% / +9.5%	−47.5% / −62.4%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Jul 20, 2026 +18.1%	Exit below $137.10 (−21.2%)	30% 54/182	+3.2% / +9.5%	−57.7% / −62.4%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +12.7%	Exit below $156.04 (−10.4%)	28% 26/92	+4.5% / +9.2%	−50.6% / −62.4%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +47.6%	Not on one close	41% 13/32	+5.8% / +8.0%	−37.3% / −62.4%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +47.6%	Not on one close	36% 10/28	+6.5% / +9.2%	−37.8% / −62.4%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +3.0%	Exit below $157.09 (−9.8%)	33% 115/350	+4.5% / +9.5%	−52.6% / −62.4%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jun 18, 2025 +59.7%	Not on one close	74% 28/38	+7.8% / +9.5%	−57.9% / −62.4%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +8.0%	Buy $149.66–$155.08 (−10.9%)	60% 171/286	+2.7% / +9.5%	−18.9% / −62.4%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +7.0%	Buy $149.66–$164.05 (−5.8%)	66% 244/372	+7.1% / +9.5%	−30.0% / −62.4%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jul 7, 2026 +23.7%	Buy below $154.84 (−11.1%)	67% 126/188	+3.9% / +9.5%	−62.1% / −62.4%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Jul 17, 2026 +18.9%	Not on one close	64% 108/170	+5.8% / +9.5%	−56.3% / −62.4%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +6.1%	Not on one close	65% 195/302	+4.4% / +9.5%	−57.9% / −62.4%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Jul 15, 2026 +21.2%	Not on one close	69% 44/64	+5.3% / +9.5%	−56.1% / −62.4%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +602.3%	Sell above $361.74 (+107.8%)	–	+9.5% / +9.5%	−62.4% / −62.4%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Apr 9, 2025 +72.5%	Not on one close	20% 2/10	+1.4% / +9.5%	−11.6% / −62.4%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +7.1%	Exit below $166.13 (−4.6%)	43% 148/341	+2.4% / +9.5%	−55.3% / −62.4%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +8.0%	Exit below $172.58 (−0.9%)	58% 262/451	+3.5% / +9.5%	−47.6% / −62.4%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +3.3%	Buy below $174.08 (0.0%)	59% 1074/1826	+8.8% / +9.5%	−30.6% / −62.4%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Jul 13, 2026 +21.2%	Not on one close	58% 51/88	+3.9% / +9.5%	−14.1% / −62.4%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +7.4%	Exit below $172.71 (−0.8%)	38% 416/1094	+3.1% / +9.5%	−54.9% / −62.4%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +12.7%	Buy below $166.03 (−4.6%)	54% 67/124	+3.8% / +9.5%	−59.7% / −62.4%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +6.4%	Not on one close	23% 196/852	−0.5% / +9.5%	−71.3% / −62.4%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +7.4%	Not on one close	32% 70/218	−0.4% / +9.5%	−63.8% / −62.4%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Jan 21, 2025 +65.1%	Not on one close	58% 15/26	+2.2% / +9.5%	−55.8% / −62.4%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Apr 20, 2026 +19.4%	Not on one close	30% 34/114	+2.0% / +9.5%	−74.4% / −62.4%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +7.0%	Exit below $167.89 (−3.6%)	26% 221/866	−2.3% / +9.5%	−76.7% / −62.4%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +6.1%	Exit below $134.72 (−22.6%)	35% 129/366	+3.0% / +9.5%	−41.8% / −62.4%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +6.4%	Not on one close	30% 183/616	−2.7% / +9.5%	−74.5% / −62.4%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +5.8%	Not on one close	34% 49/144	+4.2% / +9.4%	−52.0% / −62.4%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +6.1%	Not on one close	33% 332/1002	+1.0% / +9.5%	−59.6% / −62.4%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Sep 3, 2026 +7.3%	Not on one close	52% 55/105	+6.8% / +9.5%	−30.6% / −62.4%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	Aug 10, 2026 +9.6%	Exit below $150.56 (−13.5%)	34% 28/83	+3.0% / +9.5%	−32.2% / −62.4%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Apr 28, 2026 +17.2%	Not on one close	43% 26/60	+0.8% / +9.5%	−16.5% / −62.4%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +14.3%	Buys Oct 30	56% 24/43	+9.4% / +9.5%	−57.4% / −62.4%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +6.3%	Window opens Apr 1	52% 23/44	+9.2% / +9.5%	−57.7% / −62.4%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 +19.4%	Window opens Oct 16	51% 22/43	+7.6% / +9.5%	−58.5% / −62.4%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +41.6%	Buys Dec 23	57% 25/44	+3.1% / +9.5%	−9.8% / −62.4%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +6.1%	Buys Oct 29	48% 251/526	+0.9% / +9.5%	−44.1% / −62.4%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +7.0%	Sells Jun 30	36% 4/11	+4.4% / +9.5%	−32.8% / −62.4%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +9.2%	Buys Nov 24	49% 197/400	+1.8% / +9.5%	−11.1% / −62.4%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +78.5%	Not on one close	45% 9/20	+6.3% / +9.5%	−33.2% / −62.4%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.1%	Sells Oct 16	50% 1138/2284	+0.2% / +9.5%	−74.9% / −62.4%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +6.6%	Buys Oct 27	47% 164/348	+1.7% / +9.5%	−9.9% / −62.4%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +6.1%	Sells Oct 16	52% 280/541	+7.8% / +9.5%	−33.6% / −62.4%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+9.5%	−62.4%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow0 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

Nothing on the checklist stands out.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 · back to its old high Feb 2011

XOM−32%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Feb 2021

XOM−48%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jan 2022 · back to its old high Jan 2022

XOM0%

S&P 500−25%

Beta0.01Moves about 0.0× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture−111%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell -111% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+50%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high0%
Debt to equity0.16×
Net debt / EBITDA0.5×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover69.4×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Oil & Gas Integrated · ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products segment offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, as well as licensing services.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$716B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$361B	Total sales. The market values it at 2.0× sales.
P/E ratio	22.4×	Buyers pay $22 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	15.2×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	2.8×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	9.1%	Keeps 9¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+44.1%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+112.8%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	12.6%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$20.7B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$259B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$42.4B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$10.6B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.16×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	69.4×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$173.64	0% below the close, from 22 analysts (range $142.00 to $200.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	2.39%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

XOM: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Energy & power: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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