Volume & money flow · daily rule · Energy & power
Money Flow Index on Exxon Mobil
XOM with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding XOM over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +2.2% | +9.5% | +5.3% | +27.9% |
| Total return | +61% | +614% | +29% | +240% |
| Worst drawdown | −55.8% | −62.4% | −7.8% | −20.5% |
| Volatility | 18.7% | 26.5% | 5.0% | 26.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.12 | 0.41 | 0.30 | 0.92 |
| Time invested | 33% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 15 of 26 closed calls (58%). In calls averaged +2.0%; out calls saw XOM move +15.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | XOM moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2025 | OUT | $105.41 | now | +65.1% | open |
| Dec 31, 2024 | IN | $101.72 | Jan 21, 2025 | +3.6% | ✓ right |
| Mar 7, 2024 | OUT | $99.10 | Dec 31, 2024 | +2.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 10, 2023 | IN | $94.01 | Mar 7, 2024 | +5.4% | ✓ right |
| Jan 21, 2021 | OUT | $38.55 | Nov 10, 2023 | +143.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 10, 2019 | IN | $50.04 | Jan 21, 2021 | −23.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 6, 2019 | OUT | $56.76 | Oct 10, 2019 | −11.8% | ✓ right |
| Dec 26, 2018 | IN | $48.60 | Mar 6, 2019 | +16.8% | ✓ right |
| Sep 13, 2018 | OUT | $57.70 | Dec 26, 2018 | −15.8% | ✓ right |
| Feb 12, 2018 | IN | $52.49 | Sep 13, 2018 | +9.9% | ✓ right |
| Sep 21, 2017 | OUT | $53.82 | Feb 12, 2018 | −2.5% | ✓ right |
| Aug 2, 2016 | IN | $56.03 | Sep 21, 2017 | −3.9% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 27 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.