Industrials & rentals

Carrier Global (CARR)

$55.03 −0.7% on the day·−1.7% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Your signal

Sell19 / 100

Sell: 19 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Plays in (24%) scores 24 and lifts it; Off the high (−27% from its 1-year high) scores 9 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	CARR	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	24%	24	40	9.6
Off the high	−27% from its 1-year high	9	30	2.7
Trend	−10% vs 200-day	21	30	6.3

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for CARR

Factor	CARR	Points	What it is
Plays in	24%	24	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+36% · 23 analysts · capped: below 200-day	50	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	2.0 · buy	50	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	36.0×	33	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Forward P/E	16.6×	47	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.07	62	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	2.1×	70	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Price to book	3.3×	43	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Dividend yield	0.8%	24	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Earnings growth	−76%	6	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Revenue growth	−5%	7	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Profit margin	6%	37	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Return on equity	9%	40	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Debt to equity	0.88×	33	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Off the high	−27% from its 1-year high	9	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	−10% vs 200-day	21	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	−2%	30	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	3/10 · moderate	70	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on CARR

24 of the 100 plays hold CARR right now.
The trend-following, breakout and momentum plays mostly say out.
It closed 10% below its 200-day average and 27% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads moderate: it moves about 1.2× its index and fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $74.66, 36% above the close (23 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in24 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureModerate3 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple0.90×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−10%). Higher than on 17% of days since 2020. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about CARR now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn CARR: right 4 of 10 · Out since Oct 29, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn CARR: right 16 of 31 · Out since Jul 28, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn CARR: right 6 of 11 · Out since Aug 31, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn CARR: right 35 of 54 · Out since Oct 6, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn CARR: right 7 of 13 · In since Sep 8, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn CARR: right 15 of 29 · In since Jul 22, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn CARR: right 6 of 13 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

CARR, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved CARR lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P 500; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Thu Oct 8+2.0% against the S&P 5001.1× a normal day

CARR +1.5%, the S&P 500 −0.5% that session.

HeadlineMarketBeat · Oct 8, 1:57 pm ET
Carrier Global Corporation $CARR Stock Bought by YHB Investment Advisors Inc.
HeadlineMarketWatch · Oct 7, 4:51 pm ET
Carrier Global Corp. stock outperforms competitors despite losses on the day
HeadlineYahoo Finance · Oct 7, 4:15 pm ET
Carrier Board of Directors Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

Fri Sep 25+2.2% against the S&P 5001.2× a normal day

CARR +2.7%, the S&P 500 +0.5% that session; +1.1% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

Initiated at BuyAnalyst rating · Sep 25, 8:51 am ET
Wells Fargo started coverage at Overweight. Target $67.00.
After new coverage at Buy, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 66% of the time (413 of 628 on 158 stocks; median move +0.7%). High predictability

Tue Sep 15−2.6% against the S&P 5001.3× a normal day

CARR −3.0%, the S&P 500 −0.4% that session; −6.5% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on CARR was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for CARR starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved −0.4%. The 8 other Industrials & rentals stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.9% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Thu Oct 29, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 0.77.

Over its last 12 reports, CARR's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±5.7% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 6 times.
CARR after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 10 of 18 times (median +0.4%).
CARR after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 2 of 3 times (median −6.1%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on CARR

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following4 of 30 in Breakouts & channels0 of 15 in Momentum4 of 17 in Mean reversion6 of 15 in Volume & money flow5 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on CARR went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2020. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	OUT	Jul 28, 2026 −12.9%	Enter above $55.88 (+1.5%)	29% 50/173	+13.9% / +20.0%	−25.4% / −40.8%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −11.0%	Enter above $63.34 (+15.1%)	37% 7/19	+5.8% / +6.4%	−27.0% / −40.8%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	Jul 28, 2026 −12.9%	Enter above $58.16 (+5.7%)	24% 25/103	+5.6% / +12.0%	−28.5% / −40.8%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Jul 28, 2026 −12.9%	Not on one close	14% 8/57	−2.6% / +6.9%	−40.5% / −40.8%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 −12.3%	Enter above $67.74 (+23.1%)	24% 5/21	+3.3% / +6.8%	−31.6% / −40.8%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −11.0%	Enter above $66.03 (+20.0%)	35% 8/23	+7.1% / +7.6%	−29.5% / −40.8%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 −5.5%	Enter above $61.92 (+12.5%)	31% 4/13	+1.8% / +8.6%	−42.4% / −40.8%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 −8.5%	Enter above $61.48 (+11.7%)	23% 7/31	+9.0% / +8.6%	−32.6% / −40.8%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 +0.3%	Not on one close	43% 3/7	+5.2% / +8.6%	−47.0% / −40.8%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 −8.5%	Enter above $61.48 (+11.7%)	21% 6/29	+2.3% / +7.9%	−44.9% / −40.8%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Jul 24, 2026 −20.1%	Enter above $57.38 (+4.3%)	37% 13/35	+10.9% / +13.3%	−26.4% / −40.8%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +0.1%	Enter above $55.99 (+1.7%)	22% 57/258	+4.0% / +21.2%	−45.4% / −40.8%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 −0.1%	Exit below $40.79 (−25.9%)	36% 23/64	+8.8% / +10.0%	−30.9% / −40.8%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 −6.5%	Enter above $141.42 (+157.0%)	15% 2/13	−3.0% / +4.9%	−48.2% / −40.8%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Jul 28, 2026 −12.9%	Enter above $89.62 (+62.9%)	33% 11/33	+11.8% / +12.6%	−25.4% / −40.8%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Jul 28, 2026 −12.9%	Enter above $66.46 (+20.8%)	40% 10/25	+15.2% / +15.1%	−27.6% / −40.8%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Jul 8, 2026 −17.2%	Enter above $58.99 (+7.2%)	44% 18/41	+24.1% / +24.6%	−25.6% / −40.8%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Jul 10, 2026 −20.4%	Not on one close	39% 33/85	+13.8% / +24.6%	−31.7% / −40.8%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $54.18 (−1.5%)	38% 69/181	+12.2% / +24.1%	−29.5% / −40.8%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Jul 13, 2026 −19.5%	Enter above $59.73 (+8.5%)	44% 26/59	+18.2% / +21.8%	−39.8% / −40.8%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 −2.4%	Exit below $53.84 (−2.2%)	35% 57/163	+6.0% / +21.5%	−37.5% / −40.8%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Nov 12, 2025 −0.6%	Enter above $89.04 (+61.8%)	36% 15/42	+10.0% / +20.9%	−20.3% / −40.8%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Jul 20, 2026 −17.5%	Enter above $64.46 (+17.1%)	37% 16/43	+15.1% / +17.2%	−29.2% / −40.8%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Sep 25, 2026 −2.4%	Exit below $54.11 (−1.7%)	30% 24/79	+4.6% / +24.6%	−50.7% / −40.8%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Jul 8, 2026 −17.2%	Enter above $93.33 (+69.6%)	34% 21/61	+13.1% / +17.2%	−21.8% / −40.8%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above $56.79 (+3.2%)	33% 25/76	+1.3% / +10.0%	−42.6% / −40.8%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Jul 20, 2026 −17.5%	Enter above $64.67 (+17.5%)	30% 12/40	+5.4% / +12.0%	−29.8% / −40.8%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Jul 30, 2026 −10.4%	Enter above $96.00 (+74.4%)	37% 10/27	+8.5% / +12.0%	−28.6% / −40.8%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 −1.4%	Exit below $54.38 (−1.2%)	38% 21/55	+7.0% / +7.3%	−21.3% / −40.8%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Oct 29, 2025 −8.4%	Not on one close	40% 4/10	+4.6% / +17.2%	−8.5% / −40.8%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Jul 28, 2026 −12.9%	Enter above $56.79 (+3.2%)	38% 13/34	+18.1% / +24.6%	−26.8% / −40.8%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jul 7, 2026 −19.6%	Enter above $68.02 (+23.6%)	29% 12/42	+7.3% / +16.2%	−27.6% / −40.8%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jul 28, 2026 −12.9%	Enter above $68.30 (+24.1%)	29% 8/28	+7.9% / +16.2%	−29.9% / −40.8%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jul 7, 2026 −19.6%	Enter above $166.90 (+203.3%)	26% 8/31	+3.2% / +12.0%	−35.0% / −40.8%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	May 19, 2026 −10.1%	Enter above $58.19 (+5.7%)	32% 13/40	+4.0% / +24.6%	−45.2% / −40.8%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Jul 2, 2026 −21.2%	Enter above $59.60 (+8.3%)	31% 16/52	+6.5% / +21.2%	−25.4% / −40.8%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jul 2, 2026 −21.2%	Enter above $56.60 (+2.8%)	45% 25/56	+17.2% / +25.6%	−21.2% / −40.8%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Jul 7, 2026 −19.6%	Enter above $57.26 (+4.1%)	41% 22/54	+16.3% / +24.2%	−30.3% / −40.8%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jul 7, 2026 −19.6%	Enter above $57.90 (+5.2%)	33% 17/51	+20.3% / +24.6%	−39.4% / −40.8%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Jul 28, 2026 −12.9%	Enter above $61.49 (+11.7%)	52% 16/31	+18.7% / +23.1%	−28.3% / −40.8%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Jul 7, 2026 −19.6%	Enter above $56.73 (+3.1%)	31% 28/89	+19.4% / +20.9%	−30.7% / −40.8%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	May 4, 2026 −16.2%	Not on one close	30% 20/66	+0.6% / +24.6%	−18.0% / −40.8%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Feb 13, 2026 −15.3%	Enter above $59.72 (+8.5%)	43% 19/44	+6.4% / +21.2%	−15.5% / −40.8%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $56.08 (+1.9%)	29% 65/228	+5.9% / +26.1%	−43.5% / −40.8%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Feb 25, 2026 −9.9%	Enter above $56.60 (+2.8%)	50% 7/14	+10.6% / +10.7%	−8.4% / −40.8%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	May 29, 2026 −13.5%	Enter above $60.99 (+10.8%)	29% 2/7	+6.5% / +6.5%	−33.8% / −40.8%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 −5.5%	Not on one close	55% 6/11	+11.3% / +6.5%	−35.4% / −40.8%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2025 −18.6%	Enter above $67.81 (+23.2%)	45% 5/11	+9.5% / +6.5%	−26.6% / −40.8%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Aug 6, 2026 −14.0%	Not on one close	31% 11/36	+8.3% / +12.2%	−29.4% / −40.8%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Dec 31, 2024 −17.6%	Enter above $71.94 (+30.7%)	38% 3/8	+5.1% / +8.7%	−31.4% / −40.8%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −11.0%	Enter above $65.99 (+19.9%)	36% 12/33	+6.0% / +12.4%	−38.5% / −40.8%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 −0.1%	Exit below $51.69 (−6.1%)	35% 44/127	+6.5% / +17.2%	−30.8% / −40.8%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −1.0%	Enter above $55.51 (+0.9%)	30% 65/216	+6.2% / +17.2%	−34.2% / −40.8%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +0.3%	Exit below $41.06 (−25.4%)	43% 33/76	+13.9% / +16.6%	−30.5% / −40.8%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 −5.5%	Enter above $54.78 (−0.5%)	17% 1/6	+1.7% / +5.6%	−43.5% / −38.1%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Jun 29, 2026 −24.8%	Enter above $56.29 (+2.3%)	32% 53/168	+10.9% / +24.6%	−17.2% / −40.8%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 −1.5%	Exit below $31.75 (−42.3%)	35% 24/69	+6.2% / +12.0%	−31.7% / −40.8%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Jul 20, 2026 −17.5%	Enter above $64.89 (+17.9%)	37% 16/43	+10.5% / +12.0%	−29.7% / −40.8%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 −11.0%	Enter above $57.50 (+4.5%)	29% 5/17	+3.1% / +6.5%	−38.3% / −40.8%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 −5.5%	Not on one close	62% 5/8	+18.8% / +6.9%	−32.4% / −38.1%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Aug 29, 2025 −14.3%	Not on one close	20% 1/5	+8.0% / +6.5%	−35.4% / −40.8%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 −2.4%	Exit below $49.99 (−9.2%)	41% 34/82	+11.8% / +10.0%	−22.8% / −40.8%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Aug 26, 2026 −6.3%	Not on one close	55% 6/11	+1.7% / +25.2%	−39.4% / −40.8%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 3, 2026 −6.9%	Not on one close	56% 45/80	+1.8% / +8.6%	−21.0% / −40.8%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 3, 2026 −6.9%	Not on one close	66% 71/108	+10.7% / +8.6%	−21.0% / −40.8%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 −1.9%	Buy below $53.89 (−2.1%)	65% 35/54	+7.2% / +25.6%	−18.0% / −40.8%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Jul 9, 2026 −18.6%	Not on one close	59% 24/41	+2.6% / +26.8%	−33.7% / −40.8%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +0.1%	Not on one close	61% 55/90	+10.9% / +24.1%	−27.5% / −40.8%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Jul 13, 2026 −19.5%	Not on one close	47% 9/19	+1.3% / +24.2%	−36.3% / −40.8%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Dec 31, 2020 +57.4%	Sell above $148.60 (+170.0%)	–	+8.6% / +8.6%	−40.8% / −40.8%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2025 −16.7%	Not on one close	50% 3/6	+4.0% / +10.0%	−5.5% / −40.8%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 −0.7%	Not on one close	45% 45/100	+7.3% / +21.2%	−34.7% / −40.8%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2026 −0.6%	Not on one close	61% 87/142	+22.6% / +21.2%	−33.3% / −40.8%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −1.3%	Buy below $55.03 (0.0%)	57% 316/558	+3.7% / +26.7%	−39.6% / −40.8%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Jul 30, 2026 −10.4%	Sell above $55.99 (+1.8%)	70% 19/27	+7.2% / +8.6%	−20.9% / −40.8%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above $56.17 (+2.1%)	32% 100/310	−0.4% / +17.2%	−31.7% / −40.8%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 −11.0%	Sell above $55.97 (+1.7%)	63% 24/38	+16.3% / +21.9%	−37.4% / −40.8%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 −12.3%	Not on one close	25% 65/258	+8.8% / +25.6%	−49.8% / −40.8%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Jul 1, 2026 −23.4%	Enter above $55.03 (+0.0%)	51% 25/49	+25.1% / +24.6%	−35.4% / −40.8%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Sep 8, 2026 −6.9%	Not on one close	54% 7/13	+2.9% / +25.2%	−31.3% / −40.8%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Mar 17, 2026 −2.7%	Not on one close	23% 5/22	+6.3% / +7.2%	−42.8% / −40.8%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −1.0%	Enter above $55.37 (+0.6%)	31% 62/203	+18.0% / +21.6%	−28.6% / −40.8%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +0.1%	Exit below $53.69 (−2.4%)	37% 39/105	+15.6% / +25.6%	−29.1% / −40.8%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 −1.3%	Exit below $55.03 (0.0%)	33% 64/194	+12.6% / +24.6%	−35.7% / −40.8%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 −12.0%	Not on one close	59% 10/17	+10.9% / +6.4%	−42.8% / −40.8%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −0.2%	Not on one close	32% 82/253	+2.3% / +11.3%	−38.3% / −40.8%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Jul 22, 2026 −19.2%	Not on one close	52% 15/29	+12.4% / +22.6%	−37.2% / −40.8%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above $56.08 (+1.9%)	27% 8/30	+1.8% / +25.7%	−38.0% / −40.8%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2025 −16.4%	Not on one close	41% 9/22	+4.4% / +24.3%	−7.1% / −40.8%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −17.5%	Buys Oct 30	46% 6/13	+11.0% / +26.7%	−33.0% / −40.8%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 24, 2026 −9.1%	Not on one close	50% 6/12	+8.9% / +17.2%	−34.5% / −40.8%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	May 15, 2026 −14.6%	Window opens Oct 16	50% 6/12	+4.2% / +17.2%	−36.0% / −40.8%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +3.5%	Buys Dec 23	50% 6/12	+2.8% / +26.7%	−5.0% / −40.8%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −1.3%	Buys Oct 29	48% 76/158	+10.7% / +26.7%	−23.0% / −40.8%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +0.3%	Sells Jun 30	33% 1/3	+8.1% / +26.7%	−16.0% / −40.8%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −7.8%	Buys Nov 24	52% 65/124	+3.2% / +26.7%	−8.1% / −40.8%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +40.1%	Not on one close	50% 2/4	+4.7% / +8.6%	−38.1% / −40.8%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 −0.7%	Sells Oct 16	49% 337/685	+13.2% / +26.7%	−38.1% / −40.8%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +1.4%	Buys Oct 27	44% 46/104	+2.3% / +26.7%	−10.8% / −40.8%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −0.2%	Sells Oct 16	44% 72/162	+7.4% / +26.7%	−46.3% / −40.8%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Mar 19, 2020	Always in	–	+27.8%	−40.8%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureModerate3 of 10 points

Market swings2/3
Past crashes1/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

It moves about 1.2× its index.
It fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes.

Past crashes, peak to low

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jun 2022 · back to its old high Jul 2023

CARR−34%

S&P 500−25%

Beta1.23Moves about 1.2× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture147%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 147% as much on average.
Two-year change−31%
From 52-week high−27%
Debt to equity0.90×
Net debt / EBITDA3.6×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover4.9×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Building Products & Equipment · Carrier Global Corporation provides intelligent climate and energy solutions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Climate Solutions Americas; Climate Solutions Europe; Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa; and Climate Solutions Transportation.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$45.4B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$22.1B	Total sales. The market values it at 2.1× sales.
P/E ratio	36.0×	Buyers pay $36 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	16.6×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	3.3×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	6.0%	Keeps 6¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	−5.1%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	−75.8%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	9.5%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$862M	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$13.8B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$12.4B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$1.3B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.90×	Moderate.
Interest cover	4.9×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$74.66	36% above the close, from 23 analysts (range $60.00 to $90.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.82%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-03-31; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

CARR: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Industrials & rentals: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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