Volume & money flow · daily rule · Industrials & rentals
Money Flow Index on Carrier Global
CARR with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2020
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding CARR over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2020 | Hold, since 2020 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +2.9% | +25.2% | +3.7% | +3.1% |
| Total return | +20% | +328% | +20% | +16% |
| Worst drawdown | −31.3% | −40.8% | −31.3% | −39.7% |
| Volatility | 19.8% | 33.2% | 22.6% | 32.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.09 | 0.75 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Time invested | 38% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 7 of 13 closed calls (54%). In calls averaged +3.4%; out calls saw CARR move +32.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | CARR moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | IN | $59.11 | now | −6.9% | open |
| Feb 5, 2026 | OUT | $62.65 | Sep 8, 2026 | −5.7% | ✓ right |
| Aug 18, 2025 | IN | $65.48 | Feb 5, 2026 | −4.3% | ✕ wrong |
| May 7, 2025 | OUT | $68.73 | Aug 18, 2025 | −4.7% | ✓ right |
| Nov 6, 2024 | IN | $73.53 | May 7, 2025 | −6.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 28, 2024 | OUT | $69.19 | Nov 6, 2024 | +6.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 12, 2024 | IN | $62.45 | Aug 28, 2024 | +10.8% | ✓ right |
| May 16, 2024 | OUT | $63.05 | Jun 12, 2024 | −1.0% | ✓ right |
| Apr 22, 2024 | IN | $51.85 | May 16, 2024 | +21.6% | ✓ right |
| Mar 14, 2024 | OUT | $55.42 | Apr 22, 2024 | −6.4% | ✓ right |
| Aug 22, 2023 | IN | $51.65 | Mar 14, 2024 | +7.3% | ✓ right |
| Nov 3, 2022 | OUT | $37.31 | Aug 22, 2023 | +38.4% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 14 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.