Healthcare

Medtronic (MDT)

$93.01 +1.2% on the day·+0.5% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Your signal

Buy60 / 100

Buy: 60 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−9% from its 1-year high) scores 71 and lifts it; Plays in (49%) scores 49 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	MDT	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	49%	49	40	19.6
Off the high	−9% from its 1-year high	71	30	21.3
Trend	+7% vs 200-day	64	30	19.2

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for MDT

Factor	MDT	Points	What it is
Plays in	49%	49	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+12% · 25 analysts	46	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.8 · buy	60	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	22.9×	54	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Forward P/E	14.5×	56	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.60	44	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	3.2×	57	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Price to book	2.4×	65	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Dividend yield	3.1%	72	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Earnings growth	+12%	40	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Revenue growth	+10%	39	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Profit margin	14%	57	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Return on equity	10%	42	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Debt to equity	0.56×	47	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-07-31.
Off the high	−9% from its 1-year high	71	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+7% vs 200-day	64	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+1%	33	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	1/10 · low	90	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on MDT

49 of the 100 plays hold MDT right now.
The volume plays mostly say in; the breakout plays mostly say out.
It closed 7% above its 200-day average and 9% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low.
Analysts' average 12-month target is $104.40, 12% above the close (25 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in49 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow1 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.07×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+7%). Higher than on 65% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about MDT now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn MDT: right 20 of 50 · Out since Oct 18, 2024 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn MDT: right 20 of 43 · In since Jul 6, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn MDT: right 13 of 43 · Out since Jun 30, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn MDT: right 127 of 203 · Out since Oct 12, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn MDT: right 16 of 30 · In since Sep 28, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn MDT: right 46 of 92 · In since Oct 5, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn MDT: right 24 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

MDT, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved MDT lately

Its biggest move against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Mon Oct 12+4.0% against the S&P 5002.5× a normal day

MDT +3.9%, the S&P 500 −0.1% that session.

Price target cutAnalyst rating · Oct 12, 6:07 am ET
BTIG cut its price target to $99.00 from $100, keeping Buy.
After price target cuts, stocks did worse than their index at the first close after the news 53% of the time (1,291 of 2,458 on 197 stocks; median move −0.1%). This time the stock went the other way. Low predictability
MDT after price target cuts: behind its index at the first close after the news 9 of 16 times (median −0.4%).
HeadlineSeeking Alpha · Oct 12, 9:22 am ET
Medtronic's MiniMed exchange offer oversubscribed; 18.3% acceptance
HeadlineTimothy Sykes · Oct 12, 9:19 am ET
Medtronic Stock Draws Traders As Pipeline And Portfolio Shift
HeadlineMarketWatch · Oct 12, 4:30 pm ETafter that close
Medtronic PLC stock outperforms competitors on strong trading day

Next earnings report

Tue Nov 17, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 1.33.

Over its last 12 reports, MDT's typical move against the S&P 500 at the first close after the report was ±3.3% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 6 times.
MDT after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 10 of 11 times (median +3.0%).
MDT after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 3 of 4 times (median −4.2%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on MDT

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following16 of 30 in Breakouts & channels4 of 15 in Momentum6 of 17 in Mean reversion8 of 15 in Volume & money flow8 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns2 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on MDT went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +5.1%	Exit below $89.14 (−4.2%)	24% 167/687	−2.9% / +5.2%	−59.8% / −57.6%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Jul 10, 2026 +11.8%	Exit below $85.87 (−7.7%)	28% 31/109	+2.9% / +5.2%	−36.2% / −57.6%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $88.50 (−4.9%)	21% 85/401	−0.8% / +5.2%	−45.3% / −57.6%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Feb 17, 2026 −1.1%	Not on one close	13% 18/134	+0.3% / +5.2%	−24.3% / −57.6%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Mar 6, 2026 +4.9%	Enter above $89.33 (−4.0%)	24% 18/76	+2.9% / +5.2%	−29.7% / −57.6%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Feb 20, 2026 −1.5%	Enter above $97.20 (+4.5%)	24% 23/94	+2.2% / +5.2%	−19.1% / −57.6%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +7.8%	Enter above $85.71 (−7.8%)	28% 13/46	+3.7% / +5.2%	−28.5% / −57.6%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +6.0%	Exit below $86.90 (−6.6%)	13% 23/171	+3.0% / +5.2%	−32.1% / −57.6%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +1.1%	Not on one close	21% 7/34	+0.4% / +5.2%	−47.9% / −57.6%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2026 +6.8%	Enter above $247.67 (+166.3%)	12% 16/134	+0.5% / +5.2%	−42.2% / −57.6%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +4.9%	Enter above $97.42 (+4.7%)	38% 51/136	+2.3% / +5.2%	−36.3% / −57.6%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +5.1%	Exit below $88.76 (−4.6%)	22% 171/765	+0.1% / +5.2%	−49.0% / −57.6%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 +4.2%	Enter above $98.18 (+5.6%)	37% 93/252	+2.9% / +5.2%	−37.1% / −57.6%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Aug 18, 2026 +1.8%	Exit below $46.56 (−49.9%)	18% 7/38	0.0% / +4.9%	−45.6% / −57.6%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +7.8%	Enter above $89.16 (−4.1%)	29% 43/146	+2.4% / +5.2%	−37.4% / −57.6%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Jul 2, 2026 +12.7%	Exit below $86.07 (−7.5%)	32% 36/111	+4.7% / +5.2%	−30.2% / −57.6%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $84.40 (−9.3%)	34% 54/157	+1.6% / +5.2%	−31.0% / −57.6%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +4.9%	Not on one close	41% 136/331	+1.6% / +5.2%	−54.5% / −57.6%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $86.08 (−7.5%)	35% 214/605	+1.3% / +5.2%	−36.8% / −57.6%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +5.0%	Enter above $93.93 (+1.0%)	38% 78/204	+4.4% / +5.2%	−29.4% / −57.6%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +5.1%	Exit below $86.06 (−7.5%)	37% 182/491	+0.6% / +5.2%	−42.3% / −57.6%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +5.0%	Enter above $282.72 (+204.0%)	34% 52/154	−0.4% / +5.2%	−26.6% / −57.6%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $89.08 (−4.2%)	29% 57/195	+2.7% / +5.2%	−36.3% / −57.6%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +4.9%	Enter above $89.84 (−3.4%)	34% 56/164	+1.5% / +5.2%	−43.5% / −57.6%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $70.08 (−24.7%)	33% 71/215	+2.8% / +5.2%	−40.6% / −57.6%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	36% 83/233	+0.5% / +5.2%	−45.4% / −57.6%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $87.50 (−5.9%)	32% 48/151	+2.7% / +5.2%	−37.1% / −57.6%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Jul 9, 2026 +13.8%	Exit below $78.20 (−15.9%)	31% 34/108	+2.9% / +5.2%	−39.6% / −57.6%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +2.8%	Not on one close	38% 76/200	+2.3% / +5.2%	−40.6% / −57.6%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Oct 18, 2024 +7.6%	Not on one close	40% 20/50	+1.0% / +5.2%	−23.4% / −57.6%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +5.0%	Enter above $93.78 (+0.8%)	39% 48/124	+3.7% / +5.2%	−37.9% / −57.6%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 +4.2%	Enter above $94.63 (+1.7%)	32% 44/136	+0.8% / +5.2%	−27.8% / −57.6%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +5.0%	Enter above $94.63 (+1.7%)	31% 31/100	+0.3% / +5.2%	−33.3% / −57.6%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +7.8%	Enter above $93.40 (+0.4%)	30% 31/104	+0.5% / +5.2%	−33.1% / −57.6%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $85.22 (−8.4%)	30% 41/137	+1.3% / +5.2%	−39.2% / −57.6%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 +3.1%	Enter above $94.41 (+1.5%)	29% 43/146	−1.3% / +5.2%	−39.3% / −57.6%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above $93.77 (+0.8%)	31% 69/222	−0.4% / +5.2%	−32.4% / −57.6%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 +5.9%	Enter above $93.04 (+0.0%)	34% 65/190	+1.7% / +5.2%	−30.4% / −57.6%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2026 +6.8%	Enter above $93.42 (+0.4%)	37% 61/166	+3.0% / +5.2%	−36.6% / −57.6%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Jul 6, 2026 +12.9%	Exit below $84.42 (−9.2%)	47% 20/43	+5.8% / +5.2%	−30.0% / −57.6%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $88.59 (−4.7%)	29% 86/301	+2.1% / +5.2%	−29.1% / −57.6%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 +1.6%	Not on one close	27% 43/160	−0.2% / +5.2%	−26.4% / −57.6%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 +0.5%	Not on one close	39% 58/148	+0.9% / +5.2%	−28.2% / −57.6%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +6.0%	Exit below $86.20 (−7.3%)	34% 229/675	+1.1% / +5.2%	−41.9% / −57.6%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Apr 16, 2026 +10.5%	Not on one close	26% 10/38	+1.6% / +5.2%	−8.2% / −57.6%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	Mar 31, 2026 +9.2%	Enter above $91.03 (−2.1%)	19% 9/47	+0.0% / +4.9%	−56.8% / −57.6%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Jun 30, 2026 +19.9%	Not on one close	30% 13/43	−0.4% / +4.9%	−63.6% / −57.6%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Feb 27, 2026 −2.3%	Enter above $101.22 (+8.8%)	34% 14/41	+1.2% / +4.9%	−39.9% / −57.6%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Aug 6, 2026 +9.1%	Exit below $84.98 (−8.6%)	26% 41/155	+5.1% / +5.2%	−24.0% / −57.6%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Mar 31, 2026 +9.2%	Enter above $96.87 (+4.2%)	20% 4/20	+0.8% / +5.2%	−56.4% / −57.6%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +5.1%	Exit below $87.05 (−6.4%)	28% 37/131	+0.0% / +5.2%	−30.4% / −57.6%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below $83.28 (−10.5%)	38% 162/429	+3.1% / +5.2%	−49.1% / −57.6%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +5.1%	Exit below $89.13 (−4.2%)	28% 226/801	−3.4% / +5.2%	−63.2% / −57.6%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 +4.2%	Enter above $89.23 (−4.1%)	42% 123/290	+4.1% / +5.2%	−37.4% / −57.6%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +7.8%	Enter above $97.81 (+5.2%)	42% 5/12	+5.0% / +4.8%	−50.8% / −57.0%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $91.08 (−2.1%)	27% 170/639	−3.4% / +5.2%	−54.1% / −57.6%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +3.4%	Enter above $99.02 (+6.5%)	41% 110/268	+3.4% / +5.2%	−33.7% / −57.6%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 +3.9%	Enter above $89.47 (−3.8%)	29% 56/194	+2.4% / +5.2%	−35.8% / −57.6%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +7.8%	Enter above $85.27 (−8.3%)	37% 35/95	+2.4% / +4.9%	−33.1% / −57.6%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Jun 30, 2026 +19.9%	Not on one close	34% 13/38	+2.5% / +5.3%	−45.1% / −57.0%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	May 29, 2026 +28.2%	Not on one close	39% 15/38	+1.7% / +4.9%	−45.2% / −57.6%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $87.91 (−5.5%)	35% 118/339	+1.9% / +5.2%	−44.5% / −57.6%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2026 +3.5%	Not on one close	60% 25/42	+3.0% / +5.2%	−56.5% / −57.6%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 +3.9%	Not on one close	60% 190/316	+3.5% / +5.2%	−15.0% / −57.6%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +5.1%	Not on one close	63% 236/372	+0.2% / +5.2%	−47.2% / −57.6%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 +1.2%	Buy below $83.79 (−9.9%)	63% 127/203	+2.4% / +5.2%	−48.7% / −57.6%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.9%	Not on one close	61% 93/153	+2.5% / +5.2%	−46.4% / −57.6%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $91.45 (−1.7%)	62% 174/281	+2.6% / +5.2%	−49.4% / −57.6%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Dec 12, 2025 −3.8%	Not on one close	54% 34/63	+3.7% / +5.2%	−49.3% / −57.6%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +219.2%	Sell above $210.03 (+125.8%)	–	+5.2% / +5.2%	−57.6% / −57.6%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Aug 25, 2022 +16.1%	Buy below $56.01 (−39.8%)	83% 10/12	+2.7% / +5.2%	−8.2% / −57.6%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +6.0%	Not on one close	44% 149/337	+1.5% / +5.2%	−42.1% / −57.6%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 1, 2026 +1.9%	Exit below $91.65 (−1.5%)	54% 240/441	−1.2% / +5.2%	−55.4% / −57.6%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +6.0%	Buy below $93.01 (0.0%)	57% 1034/1807	+1.5% / +5.2%	−34.1% / −57.6%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 12, 2026 +1.2%	Not on one close	55% 54/98	−0.4% / +5.2%	−55.6% / −57.6%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +7.7%	Exit below $84.05 (−9.6%)	37% 392/1067	−1.5% / +5.2%	−49.5% / −57.6%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +7.8%	Sell above $88.03 (−5.4%)	63% 86/136	+7.3% / +5.2%	−38.1% / −57.6%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +6.0%	Not on one close	26% 209/813	+1.6% / +5.2%	−42.1% / −57.6%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 +1.7%	Not on one close	44% 82/186	+2.6% / +5.2%	−38.5% / −57.6%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +3.9%	Not on one close	53% 16/30	+3.6% / +5.2%	−40.9% / −57.6%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +5.1%	Not on one close	41% 54/133	+3.3% / +5.2%	−56.2% / −57.6%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +6.0%	Exit below $85.69 (−7.9%)	26% 191/743	−0.6% / +5.2%	−43.6% / −57.6%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below $75.52 (−18.8%)	34% 126/375	+0.0% / +5.2%	−48.0% / −57.6%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.2%	Not on one close	35% 206/589	−3.5% / +5.2%	−68.2% / −57.6%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	27% 34/124	−0.6% / +5.1%	−53.8% / −57.6%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +5.7%	Not on one close	34% 333/989	−0.5% / +5.2%	−53.4% / −57.6%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +5.7%	Exit below $92.35 (−0.7%)	50% 46/92	+2.8% / +5.2%	−44.0% / −57.6%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	Jun 3, 2026 +21.4%	Exit below $72.06 (−22.5%)	36% 34/95	+2.7% / +5.2%	−39.8% / −57.6%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Oct 3, 2023 +34.1%	Not on one close	52% 29/56	+2.2% / +5.2%	−10.9% / −57.6%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +16.9%	Buys Oct 30	56% 24/43	+4.8% / +5.2%	−41.5% / −57.6%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +5.1%	Window opens Apr 1	55% 24/44	+5.2% / +5.2%	−45.4% / −57.6%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 21, 2026 +15.4%	Window opens Oct 16	56% 24/43	+4.6% / +5.2%	−41.3% / −57.6%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 −2.0%	Buys Dec 23	52% 23/44	+2.6% / +5.2%	−6.4% / −57.6%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +5.7%	Buys Oct 29	50% 262/526	+2.4% / +5.2%	−21.0% / −57.6%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +7.8%	Sells Jun 30	64% 7/11	+4.5% / +5.2%	−18.5% / −57.6%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −0.4%	Buys Nov 24	48% 192/400	+2.2% / +5.2%	−5.1% / −57.6%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +35.4%	Not on one close	50% 10/20	+5.9% / +5.2%	−29.9% / −57.6%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 12, 2026 +1.2%	Sells Oct 16	51% 1157/2284	+1.7% / +5.2%	−60.9% / −57.6%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +1.3%	Buys Oct 27	46% 160/348	+1.1% / +5.2%	−9.9% / −57.6%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +7.7%	Sells Oct 16	48% 259/541	+3.1% / +5.2%	−43.6% / −57.6%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 3, 2005	Always in	–	+5.2%	−57.6%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow1 of 10 points

Market swings1/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

Nothing on the checklist stands out.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 · back to its old high May 2013

MDT−56%

S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Oct 2020

MDT−36%

S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Oct 2022 · back to its old high Sep 2025

MDT−23%

S&P 500−25%

Beta0.38Moves about 0.4× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
Downside capture144%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 144% as much on average.
Two-year change+11%
From 52-week high−9%
Debt to equity0.57×
Net debt / EBITDA1.9×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover9.6×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Medical Devices · Medtronic plc develops, manufactures, and sells device-based medical therapies to healthcare systems, physicians, clinicians, and patients in the United States, Ireland, and internationally. It operates through three segments: The Cardiovascular Portfolio, Neuroscience Portfolio, and Medical Surgical Portfolio.

Size and valuation
Market cap	$119B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$37.5B	Total sales. The market values it at 3.2× sales.
P/E ratio	22.9×	Buyers pay $23 for each $1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	14.5×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	2.4×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	13.9%	Keeps 14¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+9.8%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+12.2%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	10.4%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$5.4B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$49.5B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$28.2B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$8.8B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.57×	Moderate.
Interest cover	9.6×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	$104.40	12% above the close, from 25 analysts (range $85.00 to $121.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	3.06%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-07-31; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

MDT: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Healthcare: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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