Oct 13 close Sign in

Industrials & rentals

Avis Budget (CAR)

Your signal

Sell10 / 100

Sell: 10 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Plays in (22%) scores 22 and lifts it; Off the high (−85% from its 1-year high) scores 0 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weightCARPointsWeightAdds
Plays in22%22408.8
Off the high−85% from its 1-year high0300.0
Trend−31% vs 200-day3300.9
Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for CAR
FactorCARPointsWhat it is
Plays in22%22The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside+14% · 7 analysts49How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating3.4 · hold0The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/Eloss0Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Forward P/E20.2×32Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG0.1797P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales0.3×98Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Price to booknegative book0Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Dividend yieldnone0Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth+880%99Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth+1%12Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Profit margin−6%9Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Return on equity––Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher.
Debt to equitynegative equity0Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-03-31.
Off the high−85% from its 1-year high0How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend−31% vs 200-day3How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum−28%11The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure8/10 · very high20The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on CAR

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in22 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureVery high8 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple0.69×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−31%). Higher than on 11% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about CAR now.

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved CAR lately

Its biggest move against the S&P 500 in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Tue Sep 22−8.1% against the S&P 5002.5× a normal day

CAR −8.1%, the S&P 500 0.0% that session; −9.5% against the S&P 500 over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on CAR was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for CAR starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P 500 moved 0.0%. The 8 other Industrials & rentals stocks Be The Puck covers moved +1.4% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on CAR

All 100 plays, by family.

Calls right: how often the play's calls on CAR went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

PlayCallSinceNext moveCalls rightAnnual returnWorst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 −23.5%Enter above $112.39 (+4.5%)28% 165/591+20.7% / +5.6%−81.5% / −99.0%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weeklyOUTJun 26, 2026 −35.4%Enter above $145.49 (+35.2%)34% 34/99+16.6% / +5.6%−80.8% / −99.0%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · dailyOUTJun 24, 2026 −38.6%Enter above $125.31 (+16.5%)30% 89/301+27.7% / +5.6%−70.7% / −99.0%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · dailyOUTOct 28, 2025 −26.2%Not on one close23% 26/112+9.8% / +5.9%−49.6% / −99.0%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weeklyOUTJul 10, 2026 −31.1%Enter above $169.84 (+57.8%)21% 15/72+9.4% / +5.6%−82.0% / −99.0%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weeklyOUTJun 26, 2026 −35.4%Enter above $169.84 (+57.8%)20% 18/90+7.9% / +5.6%−87.5% / −99.0%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 +0.9%Enter above $139.35 (+29.5%)28% 12/43+6.9% / +5.6%−89.4% / −99.0%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · dailyOUTJul 29, 2026 −30.5%Enter above $155.36 (+44.4%)15% 24/158+12.8% / +5.6%−81.4% / −99.0%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · dailyOUTAug 21, 2026 −26.6%Not on one close24% 8/34+1.5% / +5.6%−93.5% / −99.0%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTJul 29, 2026 −30.5%Not on one close16% 15/92+6.7% / +5.6%−84.3% / −99.0%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weeklyOUTJul 10, 2026 −31.1%Enter above $142.34 (+32.3%)36% 45/125+21.8% / +5.6%−80.8% / −99.0%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 +1.5%Enter above $108.53 (+0.9%)25% 191/770+25.3% / +5.6%−84.6% / −99.0%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · dailyINOct 5, 2026 −0.4%Exit below $72.96 (−32.2%)36% 97/268+9.6% / +5.6%−85.1% / −99.0%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · dailyOUTAug 10, 2026 −22.4%Not on one close21% 10/47+2.0% / +5.8%−83.1% / −99.0%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · dailyOUTMay 1, 2026 −42.0%Enter above $312.15 (+190.1%)35% 39/111+25.0% / +5.6%−74.7% / −99.0%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · dailyOUTMay 13, 2026 −27.7%Enter above $154.30 (+43.4%)36% 34/95+22.4% / +5.6%−79.6% / −99.0%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · dailyOUTApr 22, 2026 −75.8%Enter above $121.17 (+12.6%)44% 64/147+32.0% / +5.6%−79.0% / −99.0%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · dailyOUTApr 30, 2026 −40.4%Not on one close46% 123/265+24.9% / +5.6%−74.7% / −99.0%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −22.4%Enter above $100.60 (−6.5%)35% 180/509+27.1% / +5.6%−79.9% / −99.0%
AroonTushar S. Chande · dailyOUTJun 30, 2026 −27.2%Enter above $135.81 (+26.2%)41% 84/207+18.8% / +5.6%−83.1% / −99.0%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTOct 12, 2026 +2.4%Enter above $113.66 (+5.6%)38% 187/489+16.3% / +5.6%−89.0% / −99.0%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTMay 6, 2026 −34.5%Enter above $113.71 (+5.7%)37% 59/158+16.8% / +5.6%−79.1% / −99.0%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · dailyOUTJun 24, 2026 −38.6%Enter above $175.76 (+63.3%)35% 59/167+23.9% / +5.6%−76.0% / −99.0%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weeklyOUTAug 28, 2026 −22.1%Enter above $110.22 (+2.4%)39% 116/295+21.8% / +5.6%−79.6% / −99.0%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTJul 29, 2026 −30.5%Enter above $394.99 (+267.1%)33% 72/219+23.2% / +5.6%−76.4% / −99.0%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −4.5%Not on one close42% 94/224+16.7% / +5.6%−85.0% / −99.0%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · dailyOUTMay 1, 2026 −42.0%Enter above $173.05 (+60.8%)35% 55/157+26.4% / +5.6%−74.7% / −99.0%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · dailyOUTMay 13, 2026 −27.7%Enter above $340.98 (+216.9%)30% 28/93+19.2% / +5.6%−79.6% / −99.0%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Exit below $104.02 (−3.3%)37% 75/205+7.7% / +5.6%−77.0% / −99.0%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTJun 9, 2025 −14.7%Not on one close48% 20/42+4.3% / +5.6%−30.3% / −99.0%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · dailyOUTJun 29, 2026 −30.7%Enter above $119.85 (+11.4%)42% 54/128+17.4% / +5.6%−82.3% / −99.0%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTApr 23, 2026 −53.0%Enter above $148.37 (+37.9%)36% 43/120+21.8% / +5.6%−67.9% / −99.0%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTMay 7, 2026 −30.2%Enter above $167.30 (+55.5%)38% 32/84+19.0% / +5.6%−78.4% / −99.0%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTApr 22, 2026 −75.8%Not on one close37% 30/82+16.7% / +5.6%−59.0% / −99.0%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · dailyOUTJul 31, 2026 −21.7%Enter above $135.81 (+26.2%)47% 48/103+25.9% / +5.6%−82.2% / −99.0%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · dailyOUTApr 23, 2026 −53.0%Enter above $126.16 (+17.2%)41% 56/137+17.6% / +5.6%−71.1% / −99.0%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTApr 23, 2026 −53.0%Enter above $118.30 (+9.9%)39% 78/202+22.5% / +5.6%−67.9% / −99.0%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · dailyOUTAug 13, 2026 −21.5%Enter above $118.70 (+10.3%)40% 72/181+25.8% / +5.6%−65.7% / −99.0%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTJun 29, 2026 −30.7%Enter above $118.05 (+9.7%)40% 68/171+29.5% / +5.6%−80.5% / −99.0%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −19.6%Enter above $115.89 (+7.7%)41% 96/236+15.7% / +5.6%−87.0% / −99.0%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTJun 25, 2026 −34.9%Enter above $126.19 (+17.3%)29% 93/321+29.4% / +5.6%−82.3% / −99.0%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · dailyOUTApr 22, 2026 −75.8%Not on one close31% 48/154+8.4% / +5.6%−44.0% / −99.0%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · dailyOUTApr 23, 2026 −53.0%Not on one close41% 45/110+7.5% / +5.6%−67.9% / −99.0%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Exit below $104.72 (−2.7%)37% 247/675+27.4% / +5.6%−75.4% / −99.0%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTOct 3, 2025 −30.4%Not on one close38% 16/42+5.3% / +5.6%−29.1% / −99.0%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-endOUTJun 30, 2026 −27.2%Enter above $141.09 (+31.1%)32% 12/37+1.6% / +5.5%−85.3% / −99.0%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-endOUTJul 31, 2026 −21.7%Not on one close31% 11/35+6.3% / +5.5%−80.8% / −99.0%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-endOUTJun 30, 2026 −27.2%Enter above $156.89 (+45.8%)34% 11/32+6.4% / +5.5%−79.6% / −99.0%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTFeb 21, 2025 +23.5%Not on one close24% 27/112+4.5% / +5.6%−51.1% / −99.0%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-endOUTJul 31, 2025 −36.8%Not on one close33% 10/30+7.8% / +5.6%−67.2% / −99.0%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weeklyOUTJun 26, 2026 −35.4%Enter above $171.46 (+59.3%)29% 26/90+14.5% / +5.6%−80.0% / −99.0%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −3.3%Exit below $90.13 (−16.2%)34% 144/428+16.1% / +5.6%−82.6% / −99.0%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 +1.5%Enter above $109.21 (+1.5%)30% 225/753+11.3% / +5.6%−90.7% / −99.0%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −4.5%Exit below $60.22 (−44.0%)43% 125/294+18.8% / +5.6%−84.5% / −99.0%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-endINJan 31, 2025 +20.0%Exit below $38.39 (−64.3%)35% 8/23+12.0% / +7.3%−94.2% / −98.8%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · dailyOUTJul 29, 2026 −30.5%Enter above $117.82 (+9.5%)29% 160/548+11.2% / +5.6%−73.6% / −99.0%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · dailyINOct 9, 2026 +1.5%Exit below $62.41 (−42.0%)45% 113/252+24.5% / +5.6%−82.2% / −99.0%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · dailyOUTMay 1, 2026 −42.0%Enter above $179.09 (+66.4%)37% 59/159+25.6% / +5.6%−75.3% / −99.0%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 +0.9%Enter above $118.74 (+10.3%)35% 27/77+12.6% / +5.5%−85.4% / −99.0%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-endOUTJul 31, 2026 −21.7%Not on one close27% 8/30+6.2% / +7.8%−80.8% / −98.8%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · dailyOUTJul 31, 2026 −21.7%Not on one close40% 17/43+4.2% / +5.5%−80.8% / −99.0%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −4.5%Exit below $94.46 (−12.2%)34% 113/332+14.5% / +5.6%−81.1% / −99.0%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINSep 18, 2026 −8.6%Not on one close67% 31/46+0.2% / +5.6%−97.9% / −99.0%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTJul 2, 2026 −34.2%Not on one close60% 143/238−4.0% / +5.6%−85.7% / −99.0%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTJul 14, 2026 −32.7%Not on one close63% 194/306+1.3% / +5.6%−86.7% / −99.0%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · dailyINSep 10, 2026 −15.1%Sell above $108.98 (+1.3%)61% 123/201−14.1% / +5.6%−98.9% / −99.0%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · dailyINJul 2, 2026 −34.2%Not on one close55% 79/143−7.0% / +5.6%−97.3% / −99.0%
Williams %RLarry Williams · dailyINSep 3, 2026 −22.3%Not on one close57% 143/249−8.6% / +5.6%−99.1% / −99.0%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · dailyINSep 17, 2026 −6.6%Not on one close55% 36/65−0.1% / +5.6%−97.4% / −99.0%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · dailyINApr 23, 2026 −53.0%Sell above $375.50 (+249.0%)75% 6/8+5.9% / +5.6%−99.0% / −99.0%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · dailyOUTMay 20, 2026 −29.6%Not on one close59% 41/70−8.0% / +5.6%−87.8% / −99.0%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 +1.5%Not on one close43% 136/318−3.5% / +5.6%−98.4% / −99.0%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 +1.5%Not on one close53% 219/412−13.3% / +5.6%−97.2% / −99.0%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Buy below $107.60 (0.0%)57% 1113/1938−5.2% / +5.6%−86.7% / −99.0%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTFeb 18, 2026 −12.7%Not on one close47% 35/74−2.3% / +5.6%−85.1% / −99.0%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 +1.5%Enter above $111.07 (+3.2%)37% 383/1042+18.7% / +5.6%−74.7% / −99.0%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-endINSep 30, 2026 +0.9%Sell above $108.82 (+1.1%)61% 75/123−1.0% / +5.6%−97.3% / −99.0%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −18.9%Not on one close27% 199/737+19.9% / +5.6%−83.7% / −99.0%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · dailyOUTSep 2, 2026 −21.9%Not on one close39% 76/197+3.1% / +5.6%−87.0% / −99.0%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · dailyOUTJul 29, 2026 −30.5%Not on one close60% 30/50+13.2% / +5.6%−95.7% / −99.0%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · dailyOUTJul 31, 2026 −21.7%Not on one close40% 57/142−8.2% / +5.7%−99.0% / −99.0%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 −2.2%Enter above $108.20 (+0.6%)26% 186/707+12.7% / +5.6%−86.0% / −99.0%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −19.6%Enter above $119.53 (+11.1%)40% 129/325+22.3% / +5.6%−79.1% / −99.0%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · dailyOUTAug 25, 2026 −25.9%Enter above $107.60 (+0.0%)38% 204/538+15.6% / +5.6%−90.4% / −99.0%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · dailyINApr 8, 2026 −58.8%Flips at next check29% 28/95+5.5% / +5.9%−88.4% / −99.0%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Not on one close36% 297/827+13.9% / +5.6%−84.7% / −99.0%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 +1.5%Not on one close52% 64/123+2.3% / +5.6%−96.1% / −99.0%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −19.6%Not on one close36% 34/95+1.2% / +5.6%−73.1% / −99.0%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTJan 26, 2026 −7.9%Not on one close44% 28/64+2.8% / +5.6%−32.9% / −99.0%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 30, 2026 −40.4%Buys Oct 3058% 25/43+11.7% / +5.6%−86.2% / −99.0%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 23, 2026 −53.0%Not on one close53% 23/43+6.2% / +5.6%−86.6% / −99.0%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · dailyOUTApr 24, 2026 −47.3%Window opens Oct 1658% 25/43+12.3% / +5.6%−89.4% / −99.0%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTJan 5, 2026 −16.7%Buys Dec 2341% 18/44+0.2% / +5.6%−21.2% / −99.0%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 −0.4%Buys Oct 2951% 266/526+6.8% / +5.6%−65.3% / −99.0%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINSep 30, 2026 +0.9%Sells Jun 3073% 8/11+6.8% / +5.6%−54.6% / −99.0%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −22.4%Buys Nov 2451% 204/400+5.6% / +5.6%−27.2% / −99.0%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-endINDec 30, 2022 −30.9%Not on one close35% 7/20−4.4% / +5.6%−85.5% / −99.0%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyINOct 12, 2026 +2.4%Sells Oct 1650% 1150/2284+0.6% / +5.6%−98.1% / −99.0%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 −8.0%Buys Oct 2750% 175/348+2.8% / +5.6%−28.0% / −99.0%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −3.3%Sells Oct 1649% 267/541+6.7% / +5.6%−85.1% / −99.0%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmarkINJan 3, 2005Always in–+5.6%−99.0%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works
ExposureVery high8 of 10 points
  • Market swings3/3
  • Past crashes2/2
  • Debt3/3
  • Run-up0/2
  • It moves about 1.8× its index.
  • It fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes.
  • It owes more than it owns (negative equity).
  • It operating profit doesn't cover its interest.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 · back to its old high Feb 2013

CAR−98%
S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jan 2021

CAR−82%
S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Sep 2022 · back to its old high Oct 2022

CAR−32%
S&P 500−25%
  • Beta1.85Moves about 1.8× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
  • Downside capture297%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 297% as much on average.
  • Two-year change+30%
  • From 52-week high−85%
  • EquityNegativeOwes more than it owns.
  • Net debt / EBITDA18.6×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
  • Interest cover−1.2×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Rental & Leasing Services · Avis Budget Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides car and truck rentals, car sharing, and ancillary products and services to businesses and consumers in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia, and Australasia.

Size and valuation
Market cap$3.8BWhat the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)$11.7BTotal sales. The market values it at 0.3× sales.
P/E ration/aLost money over the last year, so there is no profit to divide by.
Forward P/E20.2×Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Profit and growth
Profit margin−5.7%Spends more than it brings in.
Revenue growth+0.7%The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth+880.0%Same comparison for profit.
Free cash flow$1.1BCash left after running and investing in the business.
Balance sheet
Total equity−$3.1BNegative: it owes more than it owns.
Total debt$29.1BLoans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash$558MCash and short-term investments on hand.
Interest cover−1.2×Operating profit divided by interest. Under 2× means one bad year could make the interest hard to pay.
Wall Street
Average analyst target$122.8614% above the close, from 7 analysts (range $94.00 to $160.00).
Consensus ratingHoldAnalysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-03-31; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

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