Sectors
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
Your signal
Buy64 / 100
Buy: 64 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Trend (+16% vs 200-day) scores 83 and lifts it; Plays in (52%) scores 52 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | SMH | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 52% | 52 | 40 | 20.8 |
| Off the high | −12% from its 1-year high | 60 | 30 | 18.0 |
| Trend | +16% vs 200-day | 83 | 30 | 24.9 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for SMH
| Factor | SMH | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 52% | 52 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −12% from its 1-year high | 60 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | +16% vs 200-day | 83 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | +74% | 87 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 4/10 · moderate | 60 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on SMH- 52 of the 100 plays hold SMH right now.
- The trend-following plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion plays mostly say out.
- It closed 16% above its 200-day average and 12% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads moderate: it moves about 1.9× its index and fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in52 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureModerate4 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.16×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+16%). Higher than on 76% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about SMH now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn SMH: right 10 of 34 · Out since May 26, 2026Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn SMH: right 26 of 68 · In since Aug 17, 2026Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn SMH: right 12 of 31 · In since Jul 31, 2025Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn SMH: right 111 of 186 · Out since Aug 4, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn SMH: right 24 of 42 · In since Jul 30, 2026Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn SMH: right 60 of 111 · In since Mar 9, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn SMH: right 23 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
SMH, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on SMH
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following21 of 30 inBreakouts & channels5 of 15 inMomentum11 of 17 inMean reversion4 of 15 inVolume & money flow5 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns2 of 3 inCalendar4 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on SMH went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.5% | Enter above $604.61 (+2.8%) | 25% 168/667 | +5.6% / +18.8% | −49.4% / −64.2% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | IN | Apr 2, 2026 +49.9% | Exit below $566.58 (−3.7%) | 25% 28/112 | +13.3% / +18.8% | −44.2% / −64.2% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +2.6% | Exit below $586.57 (−0.3%) | 21% 84/408 | +7.7% / +18.8% | −44.6% / −64.2% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +2.6% | Exit below $580.19 (−1.3%) | 15% 34/231 | +4.6% / +18.9% | −35.4% / −64.2% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Jun 20, 2025 +126.7% | Exit below $556.48 (−5.4%) | 26% 19/73 | +14.3% / +18.8% | −36.3% / −64.2% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Jun 6, 2025 +133.4% | Exit below $556.48 (−5.4%) | 33% 29/89 | +13.4% / +18.8% | −33.9% / −64.2% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | IN | May 30, 2025 +146.1% | Exit below $517.88 (−11.9%) | 28% 12/43 | +14.1% / +18.8% | −33.6% / −64.2% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | IN | May 12, 2025 +148.5% | Exit below $509.21 (−13.4%) | 16% 27/165 | +15.0% / +18.8% | −33.8% / −64.2% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Jun 30, 2025 +111.5% | Not on one close | 44% 11/25 | +16.9% / +18.8% | −33.6% / −64.2% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Jun 2, 2025 +142.5% | Exit below $509.21 (−13.4%) | 17% 19/109 | +14.2% / +18.8% | −35.1% / −64.2% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | IN | Sep 11, 2026 +3.4% | Exit below $524.28 (−10.9%) | 40% 57/142 | +9.0% / +18.8% | −50.5% / −64.2% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 −3.2% | Enter above $612.64 (+4.2%) | 24% 202/845 | +0.8% / +18.8% | −64.4% / −64.2% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | IN | Aug 13, 2026 −0.2% | Exit below $542.86 (−7.7%) | 36% 93/258 | +6.7% / +18.8% | −45.2% / −64.2% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | May 19, 2025 +139.8% | Not on one close | 24% 7/29 | +14.0% / +18.9% | −34.9% / −64.2% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 −3.2% | Exit below $539.50 (−8.3%) | 26% 38/146 | +10.5% / +18.8% | −33.3% / −64.2% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | IN | Sep 25, 2026 −3.0% | Exit below $561.44 (−4.5%) | 31% 34/108 | +11.8% / +18.8% | −33.1% / −64.2% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.5% | Enter above $625.75 (+6.4%) | 34% 62/185 | +6.0% / +18.8% | −49.9% / −64.2% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | IN | Sep 28, 2026 −2.0% | Not on one close | 45% 156/346 | +9.3% / +18.8% | −32.7% / −64.2% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.5% | Enter above $600.37 (+2.1%) | 35% 204/581 | +6.2% / +18.8% | −46.6% / −64.2% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 −3.2% | Exit below $537.73 (−8.6%) | 35% 75/216 | +5.2% / +18.8% | −55.9% / −64.2% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 −3.2% | Enter above $632.30 (+7.5%) | 37% 196/530 | +5.5% / +18.8% | −44.9% / −64.2% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Jun 23, 2026 −5.5% | Not on one close | 28% 39/140 | +2.3% / +18.8% | −46.9% / −64.2% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 −1.3% | Exit below $507.52 (−13.7%) | 26% 55/208 | +9.3% / +18.8% | −50.0% / −64.2% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 −2.5% | Enter above $627.46 (+6.7%) | 34% 71/207 | +9.9% / +18.8% | −53.4% / −64.2% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +2.6% | Exit below $417.83 (−29.0%) | 29% 74/258 | +6.1% / +18.8% | −50.4% / −64.2% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.5% | Not on one close | 38% 98/257 | +8.3% / +18.8% | −36.1% / −64.2% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 −1.3% | Exit below $522.59 (−11.1%) | 29% 51/178 | +10.5% / +18.8% | −43.9% / −64.2% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 −3.2% | Exit below $370.53 (−37.0%) | 26% 27/102 | +10.9% / +18.8% | −38.7% / −64.2% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 +4.9% | Exit below $540.45 (−8.1%) | 35% 77/220 | +5.9% / +18.8% | −37.2% / −64.2% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | May 26, 2026 −2.3% | Not on one close | 29% 10/34 | +1.1% / +18.8% | −13.9% / −64.2% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 −1.3% | Exit below $540.45 (−8.1%) | 32% 52/160 | +4.0% / +18.8% | −57.2% / −64.2% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.5% | Enter above $639.47 (+8.7%) | 31% 50/163 | +5.9% / +18.8% | −33.8% / −64.2% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | IN | Oct 1, 2026 −4.8% | Exit below $585.44 (−0.5%) | 30% 35/118 | +5.5% / +18.8% | −28.3% / −64.2% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 −3.2% | Exit below $588.98 (+0.1%) | 24% 32/131 | +3.5% / +18.8% | −27.7% / −64.2% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | IN | Aug 17, 2026 −1.0% | Exit below $540.75 (−8.1%) | 35% 42/120 | +6.5% / +18.8% | −32.7% / −64.2% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.5% | Enter above $640.79 (+9.0%) | 36% 61/171 | +5.8% / +18.8% | −26.9% / −64.2% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.5% | Enter above $647.37 (+10.1%) | 33% 75/227 | +2.7% / +18.8% | −49.9% / −64.2% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.5% | Enter above $633.90 (+7.8%) | 30% 65/215 | +3.5% / +18.8% | −46.9% / −64.2% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $632.15 (+7.5%) | 35% 68/197 | +7.2% / +18.8% | −38.6% / −64.2% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | Aug 17, 2026 −1.0% | Exit below $532.42 (−9.5%) | 38% 26/68 | +14.4% / +18.8% | −42.4% / −64.2% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 −2.5% | Enter above $603.75 (+2.7%) | 26% 98/381 | +7.5% / +18.8% | −40.2% / −64.2% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 −3.2% | Not on one close | 26% 67/256 | +2.4% / +18.8% | −18.3% / −64.2% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 −2.5% | Not on one close | 31% 37/118 | +2.9% / +18.8% | −14.9% / −64.2% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 −2.5% | Enter above $611.95 (+4.1%) | 33% 244/733 | +4.6% / +18.8% | −58.4% / −64.2% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Aug 19, 2025 +102.8% | Not on one close | 26% 12/46 | +1.4% / +18.8% | −10.5% / −64.2% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | IN | Jun 30, 2025 +111.5% | Exit below $375.26 (−36.2%) | 30% 8/27 | +14.3% / +19.1% | −33.6% / −64.2% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | IN | Jul 31, 2025 +104.3% | Not on one close | 39% 12/31 | +15.1% / +19.1% | −35.7% / −64.2% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | IN | Jul 31, 2025 +104.3% | Exit below $417.26 (−29.1%) | 39% 12/31 | +15.5% / +19.1% | −33.6% / −64.2% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 +6.3% | Not on one close | 22% 41/189 | +7.5% / +18.8% | −46.8% / −64.2% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | OUT | Jul 31, 2026 +8.8% | Enter above $635.47 (+8.1%) | 32% 7/22 | +12.5% / +18.8% | −34.3% / −64.2% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | IN | Sep 4, 2026 +3.7% | Exit below $597.36 (+1.6%) | 33% 40/123 | +14.3% / +18.8% | −26.6% / −64.2% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 −2.5% | Enter above $656.61 (+11.6%) | 35% 154/445 | +8.6% / +18.8% | −43.7% / −64.2% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 −3.2% | Enter above $604.21 (+2.7%) | 29% 232/809 | +3.2% / +18.8% | −68.2% / −64.2% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | IN | Sep 10, 2026 +5.0% | Exit below $603.22 (+2.6%) | 39% 115/298 | +8.1% / +18.8% | −36.3% / −64.2% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Feb 28, 2023 +398.0% | Not on one close | 56% 5/9 | +20.3% / +19.0% | −38.1% / −64.2% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −5.9% | Enter above $646.86 (+10.0%) | 26% 187/708 | −0.3% / +18.8% | −61.3% / −64.2% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | IN | Sep 8, 2026 +2.5% | Exit below $546.54 (−7.1%) | 43% 107/246 | +11.0% / +18.8% | −43.3% / −64.2% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 −1.3% | Exit below $500.63 (−14.9%) | 29% 58/198 | +10.1% / +18.8% | −48.0% / −64.2% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | IN | Aug 31, 2026 +5.7% | Exit below $561.89 (−4.5%) | 31% 22/71 | +12.8% / +19.1% | −42.0% / −64.2% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | IN | Jul 31, 2025 +104.3% | Not on one close | 32% 8/25 | +16.1% / +20.7% | −36.6% / −64.2% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | IN | Jul 31, 2025 +104.3% | Not on one close | 31% 9/29 | +12.5% / +19.1% | −35.7% / −64.2% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $623.44 (+6.0%) | 34% 123/365 | +5.8% / +18.8% | −43.5% / −64.2% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | May 21, 2025 +144.3% | Not on one close | 72% 23/32 | +7.5% / +18.8% | −51.9% / −64.2% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 −3.2% | Sell above $597.43 (+1.6%) | 60% 190/317 | +8.3% / +18.8% | −18.3% / −64.2% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 −3.2% | Sell above $632.50 (+7.5%) | 66% 276/417 | +13.9% / +18.8% | −23.1% / −64.2% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Aug 4, 2026 +2.2% | Buy below $562.20 (−4.4%) | 60% 111/186 | +6.8% / +18.8% | −47.1% / −64.2% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 −2.1% | Not on one close | 65% 114/176 | +10.1% / +18.8% | −51.2% / −64.2% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Not on one close | 64% 188/295 | +10.8% / +18.8% | −56.1% / −64.2% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | OUT | May 5, 2025 +171.1% | Not on one close | 67% 49/73 | +11.6% / +18.8% | −55.7% / −64.2% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Nov 22, 2004 +4,004.2% | Sell above $1,230.76 (+109.3%) | – | +18.8% / +18.8% | −64.2% / −64.2% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Jul 30, 2026 +9.1% | Not on one close | 60% 12/20 | +3.3% / +18.8% | −5.3% / −64.2% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 +8.6% | Not on one close | 47% 142/304 | +5.3% / +18.8% | −55.9% / −64.2% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −5.9% | Enter above $598.27 (+1.7%) | 55% 227/416 | +5.2% / +18.8% | −53.3% / −64.2% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Buy below $588.11 (0.0%) | 58% 1046/1816 | +13.4% / +18.8% | −27.8% / −64.2% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Aug 13, 2026 −0.2% | Not on one close | 62% 64/104 | +9.2% / +18.8% | −27.2% / −64.2% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −5.9% | Enter above $649.40 (+10.4%) | 36% 389/1086 | +4.0% / +18.8% | −68.3% / −64.2% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 +5.7% | Buy below $621.28 (+5.6%) | 60% 77/129 | +10.9% / +18.8% | −39.6% / −64.2% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 −2.5% | Not on one close | 24% 190/803 | +1.5% / +18.8% | −53.0% / −64.2% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 −1.3% | Not on one close | 39% 78/202 | +8.2% / +18.8% | −45.8% / −64.2% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | IN | Jul 30, 2026 +9.1% | Not on one close | 57% 24/42 | +7.1% / +18.8% | −55.0% / −64.2% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Jun 8, 2023 +307.8% | Exit below $435.51 (−25.9%) | 19% 13/70 | +13.8% / +19.0% | −52.1% / −64.2% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 −3.2% | Enter above $612.57 (+4.2%) | 26% 201/787 | +1.9% / +18.8% | −63.7% / −64.2% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 −1.3% | Exit below $641.11 (+9.0%) | 32% 116/362 | +8.9% / +18.8% | −37.8% / −64.2% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 −2.5% | Enter above $588.12 (+0.0%) | 34% 204/599 | +4.0% / +18.8% | −61.7% / −64.2% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | IN | Sep 4, 2026 +3.7% | Not on one close | 28% 36/127 | +10.7% / +19.1% | −42.0% / −64.2% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 −3.2% | Not on one close | 32% 301/937 | +5.2% / +18.8% | −64.7% / −64.2% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | IN | Mar 9, 2026 +49.1% | Not on one close | 54% 60/111 | +9.4% / +18.8% | −58.9% / −64.2% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | IN | Sep 4, 2026 +3.7% | Exit below $540.07 (−8.2%) | 38% 30/80 | +7.3% / +18.8% | −26.1% / −64.2% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Nov 26, 2024 +145.4% | Not on one close | 39% 26/66 | +0.7% / +18.8% | −18.5% / −64.2% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 +16.1% | Buys Oct 30 | 53% 23/43 | +12.4% / +18.8% | −37.6% / −64.2% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | May 4, 2026 +16.0% | Enter above $665.35 (+13.1%) | 58% 25/43 | +12.6% / +18.8% | −37.6% / −64.2% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | May 18, 2026 +7.7% | Window opens Oct 16 | 60% 26/43 | +14.2% / +18.8% | −35.1% / −64.2% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 +55.8% | Buys Dec 23 | 50% 22/44 | +2.3% / +18.8% | −9.1% / −64.2% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 −7.2% | Buys Oct 29 | 49% 256/526 | +4.2% / +18.8% | −29.1% / −64.2% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 −3.4% | Sells Jun 30 | 55% 6/11 | +5.7% / +18.8% | −27.5% / −64.2% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 +3.7% | Buys Nov 24 | 52% 206/400 | +3.0% / +18.8% | −8.9% / −64.2% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +487.5% | Not on one close | 25% 5/20 | +10.4% / +18.8% | −50.7% / −64.2% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.5% | Sells Oct 16 | 51% 1175/2284 | +9.0% / +18.8% | −61.1% / −64.2% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 +7.8% | Buys Oct 27 | 49% 171/348 | +4.2% / +18.8% | −6.9% / −64.2% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 −6.7% | Sells Oct 16 | 48% 259/541 | +6.6% / +18.8% | −39.6% / −64.2% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jan 3, 2005 | Always in | – | +18.8% | −64.2% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureModerate4 of 10 points
- Market swings2/3
- Past crashes1/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up1/2
- It moves about 1.9× its index.
- It fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes.
- It is up 131% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.
- Beta1.91Moves about 1.9× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture89%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 89% as much on average.
- Two-year change+131%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
- From 52-week high−12%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.