Sectors
Communication Services Select Sector ETF (XLC)
Your signal
Hold51 / 100
Hold: 51 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−6% from its 1-year high) scores 81 and lifts it; Plays in (35%) scores 35 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | XLC | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 35% | 35 | 40 | 14.0 |
| Off the high | −6% from its 1-year high | 81 | 30 | 24.3 |
| Trend | −1% vs 200-day | 41 | 30 | 12.3 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for XLC
| Factor | XLC | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 35% | 35 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −6% from its 1-year high | 81 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | −1% vs 200-day | 41 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | −0% | 33 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 1/10 · low | 90 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on XLC- 35 of the 100 plays hold XLC right now.
- The breakout and momentum plays mostly say out.
- It closed 1% below its 200-day average and 6% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low: it fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in35 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow1 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple0.99×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−1%). Higher than on 23% of days since 2019. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about XLC now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn XLC: right 2 of 8 · Out since Mar 18, 2024Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn XLC: right 8 of 12 · Out since Mar 27, 2026Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn XLC: right 3 of 6 · Out since Aug 31, 2026Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn XLC: right 47 of 66 · Out since Jul 1, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn XLC: right 10 of 14 · Out since Dec 8, 2025Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn XLC: right 18 of 37 · In since Apr 30, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn XLC: right 8 of 16 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
XLC, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on XLC
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following11 of 30 inBreakouts & channels2 of 15 inMomentum5 of 17 inMean reversion7 of 15 inVolume & money flow4 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns1 of 3 inCalendar5 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on XLC went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2018. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $111.57 (−0.6%) | 33% 66/201 | +7.5% / +12.0% | −29.1% / −46.7% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | OUT | Oct 2, 2026 +1.8% | Enter above $111.33 (−0.8%) | 30% 8/27 | +14.4% / +12.8% | −16.8% / −46.7% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $111.54 (−0.7%) | 25% 32/127 | +7.3% / +13.3% | −26.2% / −46.7% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | Mar 12, 2026 −1.7% | Not on one close | 23% 15/66 | +8.7% / +13.3% | −15.9% / −46.7% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Jun 5, 2026 +1.1% | Enter above $124.35 (+10.8%) | 40% 6/15 | +15.8% / +12.8% | −15.0% / −46.7% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Mar 13, 2026 −1.0% | Enter above $124.06 (+10.5%) | 37% 11/30 | +12.5% / +13.3% | −15.6% / −46.7% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | OUT | Jun 30, 2026 +5.2% | Enter above $112.64 (+0.3%) | 43% 3/7 | +13.8% / +13.2% | −30.1% / −46.7% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −0.6% | Enter above $112.96 (+0.6%) | 17% 6/35 | +14.7% / +13.0% | −20.3% / −46.7% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | OUT | Jun 23, 2026 +5.0% | Enter above $197.11 (+75.6%) | 50% 3/6 | +13.7% / +13.0% | −30.1% / −46.7% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −0.6% | Enter above $176.95 (+57.6%) | 21% 5/24 | +13.9% / +12.6% | −20.1% / −46.7% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | OUT | Oct 2, 2026 +1.8% | Enter above $113.92 (+1.5%) | 33% 16/48 | +6.5% / +13.2% | −27.2% / −46.7% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 +0.7% | Exit below $111.27 (−0.9%) | 33% 83/255 | +6.1% / +11.9% | −35.1% / −46.7% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 +1.0% | Enter above $116.70 (+3.9%) | 34% 34/99 | +4.9% / +13.9% | −36.4% / −46.7% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | Apr 18, 2023 +99.2% | Exit below $81.30 (−27.6%) | 50% 2/4 | +13.0% / +13.3% | −28.8% / −46.7% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 +2.1% | Enter above $112.35 (+0.1%) | 30% 14/46 | +9.0% / +14.0% | −17.2% / −46.7% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | IN | Aug 13, 2026 +0.1% | Exit below $109.30 (−2.7%) | 33% 13/39 | +11.9% / +12.4% | −16.0% / −46.7% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | IN | Aug 4, 2026 +0.5% | Exit below $109.01 (−2.9%) | 38% 25/66 | +5.9% / +11.2% | −33.0% / −46.7% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Oct 2, 2026 +1.8% | Not on one close | 43% 43/99 | +8.0% / +11.2% | −15.9% / −46.7% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 +1.7% | Enter above $114.32 (+1.8%) | 35% 70/199 | +4.2% / +11.2% | −43.2% / −46.7% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 +2.1% | Enter above $115.61 (+3.0%) | 32% 23/73 | +2.9% / +11.5% | −34.6% / −46.7% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $109.73 (−2.3%) | 37% 77/207 | +1.2% / +11.4% | −39.2% / −46.7% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2025 −1.7% | Not on one close | 33% 14/42 | +3.0% / +12.0% | −17.8% / −46.7% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 +2.1% | Enter above $112.62 (+0.3%) | 31% 20/64 | +8.9% / +12.2% | −20.0% / −46.7% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | IN | Aug 7, 2026 +1.3% | Exit below $108.44 (−3.4%) | 38% 19/50 | +11.3% / +11.2% | −25.5% / −46.7% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $108.85 (−3.1%) | 33% 26/79 | +8.6% / +12.2% | −18.2% / −46.7% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Not on one close | 39% 32/82 | +7.8% / +13.9% | −39.1% / −46.7% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 +2.1% | Enter above $112.56 (+0.3%) | 30% 17/56 | +7.3% / +13.3% | −22.3% / −46.7% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | IN | Aug 24, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $109.64 (−2.4%) | 40% 10/25 | +13.6% / +13.3% | −17.0% / −46.7% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 +1.7% | Not on one close | 31% 27/88 | +2.3% / +13.5% | −29.6% / −46.7% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Mar 18, 2024 +43.3% | Not on one close | 25% 2/8 | +2.4% / +12.2% | −3.8% / −46.7% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 +2.1% | Enter above $115.61 (+3.0%) | 39% 21/54 | +4.2% / +11.2% | −36.1% / −46.7% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 +1.7% | Enter above $115.61 (+3.0%) | 34% 20/58 | +4.4% / +12.3% | −22.7% / −46.7% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 +1.7% | Enter above $115.61 (+3.0%) | 34% 13/38 | +7.1% / +12.3% | −14.8% / −46.7% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Jun 2, 2026 −0.6% | Enter above $117.32 (+4.5%) | 29% 11/38 | +7.6% / +13.3% | −13.6% / −46.7% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | IN | Jul 10, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $109.66 (−2.3%) | 41% 17/41 | +5.3% / +11.2% | −20.6% / −46.7% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Apr 24, 2026 −2.2% | Enter above $115.46 (+2.8%) | 28% 18/64 | +4.3% / +11.9% | −22.6% / −46.7% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 +1.0% | Enter above $114.73 (+2.2%) | 29% 22/76 | +1.8% / +11.1% | −34.6% / −46.7% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 +2.1% | Enter above $114.75 (+2.2%) | 31% 22/70 | +6.5% / +11.2% | −24.0% / −46.7% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 +1.7% | Enter above $114.91 (+2.3%) | 36% 27/75 | +6.1% / +11.2% | −34.2% / −46.7% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | OUT | Mar 27, 2026 +5.5% | Enter above $115.89 (+3.2%) | 67% 8/12 | +15.7% / +14.0% | −29.8% / −46.7% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 +2.1% | Enter above $113.73 (+1.3%) | 28% 35/124 | +7.5% / +11.9% | −29.2% / −46.7% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Apr 23, 2026 −3.8% | Not on one close | 21% 19/90 | +0.8% / +11.2% | −14.0% / −46.7% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Sep 17, 2026 +0.3% | Enter above $119.92 (+6.8%) | 30% 14/46 | −0.3% / +11.9% | −25.0% / −46.7% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $111.29 (−0.9%) | 31% 90/289 | −2.7% / +11.6% | −48.9% / −46.7% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Dec 18, 2024 +17.7% | Not on one close | 38% 6/16 | +4.7% / +13.8% | −8.4% / −46.7% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | OUT | Jun 30, 2026 +5.2% | Enter above $117.59 (+4.7%) | 38% 3/8 | +10.5% / +13.0% | −30.1% / −46.7% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 +1.1% | Not on one close | 50% 3/6 | +13.4% / +13.0% | −30.1% / −46.7% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | OUT | Mar 31, 2026 +1.9% | Enter above $130.75 (+16.5%) | 62% 5/8 | +14.3% / +13.0% | −23.6% / −46.7% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 +0.7% | Exit below $110.91 (−1.2%) | 22% 12/55 | +11.8% / +13.0% | −19.0% / −46.7% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +94.8% | Exit below $101.15 (−9.9%) | 40% 2/5 | +11.1% / +14.2% | −30.1% / −46.7% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | OUT | Mar 13, 2026 −1.0% | Enter above $116.28 (+3.6%) | 40% 24/60 | +9.7% / +15.7% | −21.3% / −46.7% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 +1.0% | Enter above $111.91 (−0.3%) | 40% 59/146 | +5.8% / +12.2% | −32.8% / −46.7% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $111.38 (−0.8%) | 34% 94/279 | +2.8% / +12.2% | −31.8% / −46.7% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 +1.0% | Enter above $118.85 (+5.8%) | 36% 44/123 | +1.8% / +12.0% | −26.6% / −46.7% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Jan 31, 2023 +112.5% | Exit below $75.54 (−32.7%) | 0% 0/1 | +13.2% / +13.1% | −18.0% / −46.7% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −0.2% | Enter above $114.04 (+1.6%) | 28% 77/276 | +0.3% / +11.2% | −23.2% / −46.7% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | OUT | Sep 29, 2026 +0.7% | Enter above $124.28 (+10.7%) | 34% 36/107 | +3.0% / +13.3% | −25.0% / −46.7% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 +2.1% | Enter above $112.67 (+0.4%) | 32% 20/62 | +9.2% / +13.3% | −18.7% / −46.7% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | IN | Aug 31, 2026 +1.1% | Exit below $110.92 (−1.2%) | 33% 6/18 | +13.0% / +13.0% | −25.4% / −46.7% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 +1.1% | Not on one close | 67% 2/3 | +9.9% / +7.4% | −25.8% / −46.7% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 +1.1% | Not on one close | 50% 3/6 | +12.8% / +13.0% | −30.1% / −46.7% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 +1.0% | Enter above $113.56 (+1.1%) | 36% 46/127 | +4.0% / +13.9% | −36.2% / −46.7% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Mar 31, 2026 +1.9% | Not on one close | 55% 6/11 | +1.0% / +11.0% | −44.2% / −46.7% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 −3.1% | Not on one close | 61% 83/136 | +7.9% / +13.0% | −9.7% / −46.7% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | May 28, 2026 −3.2% | Not on one close | 61% 97/158 | +7.9% / +13.0% | −28.4% / −46.7% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Jul 1, 2026 +2.7% | Buy below $108.93 (−3.0%) | 71% 47/66 | +6.7% / +11.1% | −23.8% / −46.7% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.6% | Not on one close | 60% 39/65 | +4.9% / +11.0% | −29.1% / −46.7% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.6% | Not on one close | 61% 65/107 | +8.8% / +11.2% | −34.7% / −46.7% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | OUT | Apr 14, 2026 −3.1% | Not on one close | 64% 14/22 | +3.9% / +11.6% | −28.7% / −46.7% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Apr 4, 2019 +150.9% | Sell above $273.02 (+143.2%) | – | +13.0% / +13.0% | −46.7% / −46.7% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Apr 9, 2025 +22.0% | Not on one close | 50% 1/2 | +3.7% / +13.9% | −1.4% / −46.7% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.2% | Not on one close | 51% 56/109 | +2.9% / +11.9% | −32.7% / −46.7% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.6% | Not on one close | 60% 103/171 | +6.6% / +11.9% | −29.8% / −46.7% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 +0.7% | Buy below $112.28 (0.0%) | 57% 390/690 | +6.1% / +11.2% | −14.9% / −46.7% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Apr 13, 2026 −1.6% | Not on one close | 69% 29/42 | +9.1% / +13.0% | −23.7% / −46.7% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $109.53 (−2.5%) | 35% 144/406 | −2.7% / +12.2% | −51.5% / −46.7% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | OUT | Jul 31, 2026 +4.1% | Buy below $113.21 (+0.8%) | 59% 30/51 | +10.3% / +12.0% | −25.0% / −46.7% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 +0.7% | Not on one close | 30% 88/297 | +3.3% / +11.1% | −36.5% / −46.7% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 +1.6% | Not on one close | 42% 34/80 | +2.5% / +11.2% | −33.0% / −46.7% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | OUT | Dec 8, 2025 −2.2% | Not on one close | 71% 10/14 | +6.5% / +11.0% | −44.4% / −46.7% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Mar 20, 2023 +111.2% | Exit below $108.54 (−3.3%) | 36% 5/14 | +11.9% / +13.4% | −49.7% / −46.7% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 +0.7% | Exit below $111.27 (−0.9%) | 29% 93/321 | +1.7% / +11.8% | −42.7% / −46.7% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | OUT | Sep 29, 2026 +0.7% | Enter above $113.26 (+0.9%) | 37% 48/129 | +8.2% / +11.1% | −25.0% / −46.7% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $112.28 (+0.0%) | 36% 89/247 | −2.8% / +11.2% | −48.3% / −46.7% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 +0.9% | Enter above $112.63 (+0.3%) | 43% 10/23 | +15.1% / +12.9% | −30.1% / −46.7% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 +0.6% | Not on one close | 35% 124/351 | +2.4% / +13.8% | −42.2% / −46.7% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | IN | Apr 30, 2026 −3.1% | Exit below $111.47 (−0.7%) | 49% 18/37 | +0.9% / +11.5% | −46.1% / −46.7% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 +2.1% | Not on one close | 31% 10/32 | +3.8% / +11.5% | −32.4% / −46.7% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 +0.7% | Not on one close | 50% 13/26 | +3.4% / +11.2% | −11.4% / −46.7% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 −3.1% | Buys Oct 30 | 50% 8/16 | +8.2% / +11.2% | −30.9% / −46.7% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Window opens Apr 1 | 59% 10/17 | +7.9% / +12.2% | −30.1% / −46.7% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | Apr 29, 2026 −2.0% | Window opens Oct 16 | 44% 7/16 | +6.6% / +12.2% | −30.1% / −46.7% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 −3.8% | Buys Dec 23 | 44% 7/16 | +3.5% / +11.2% | −2.4% / −46.7% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +0.6% | Buys Oct 29 | 50% 100/200 | +6.9% / +11.2% | −16.2% / −46.7% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +1.2% | Sells Jun 30 | 60% 3/5 | +6.3% / +11.2% | −20.3% / −46.7% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 +0.6% | Buys Nov 24 | 46% 71/156 | +3.0% / +11.2% | −2.6% / −46.7% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +143.9% | Not on one close | 33% 2/6 | +15.5% / +14.7% | −18.0% / −46.7% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 +0.7% | Sells Oct 16 | 49% 427/867 | +4.1% / +11.2% | −43.2% / −46.7% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −0.3% | Buys Oct 27 | 42% 55/130 | +2.5% / +11.2% | −5.9% / −46.7% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.8% | Sells Oct 16 | 45% 92/206 | +3.7% / +11.2% | −27.7% / −46.7% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jun 19, 2018 | Always in | – | +11.3% | −46.7% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureLow1 of 10 points
- Market swings0/3
- Past crashes1/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
- It fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes.
- Beta0.91Moves about 0.9× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture95%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 95% as much on average.
- Two-year change+27%
- From 52-week high−6%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.