Volume & money flow · daily rule · Sectors
Money Flow Index on Communication Services Select Sector ETF
XLC with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2018
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding XLC over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2018 | Hold, since 2018 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +6.5% | +11.0% | −2.6% | +8.4% |
| Total return | +68% | +135% | −12% | +49% |
| Worst drawdown | −44.4% | −46.7% | −44.2% | −44.2% |
| Volatility | 15.2% | 22.1% | 14.7% | 21.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.31 | 0.46 | −0.37 | 0.31 |
| Time invested | 32% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 10 of 14 closed calls (71%). In calls averaged +7.4%; out calls saw XLC move +12.3% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | XLC moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | OUT | $114.84 | now | −2.2% | open |
| Nov 17, 2025 | IN | $109.82 | Dec 8, 2025 | +4.6% | ✓ right |
| Apr 5, 2023 | OUT | $55.99 | Nov 17, 2025 | +96.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 24, 2023 | IN | $51.08 | Apr 5, 2023 | +9.6% | ✓ right |
| Jan 18, 2023 | OUT | $49.15 | Feb 24, 2023 | +3.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 23, 2021 | IN | $77.56 | Jan 18, 2023 | −36.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 18, 2021 | OUT | $69.06 | Sep 23, 2021 | +12.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 25, 2020 | IN | $55.12 | Feb 18, 2021 | +25.3% | ✓ right |
| Sep 3, 2020 | OUT | $59.15 | Sep 25, 2020 | −6.8% | ✓ right |
| Mar 13, 2020 | IN | $43.20 | Sep 3, 2020 | +36.9% | ✓ right |
| Nov 20, 2019 | OUT | $48.42 | Mar 13, 2020 | −10.8% | ✓ right |
| Oct 3, 2019 | IN | $45.50 | Nov 20, 2019 | +6.4% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 15 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.