Crypto
Bitcoin (BTC)
Your signal
Buy67 / 100
Buy: 67 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−4% from its 1-year high) scores 86 and lifts it; Plays in (41%) scores 41 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | BTC | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 41% | 41 | 40 | 16.4 |
| Off the high | −4% from its 1-year high | 86 | 30 | 25.8 |
| Trend | +15% vs 200-day | 82 | 30 | 24.6 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for BTC
| Factor | BTC | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 41% | 41 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −4% from its 1-year high | 86 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | +15% vs 200-day | 82 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | −28% | 11 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 3/10 · moderate | 70 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on BTC- 41 of the 100 plays hold BTC right now.
- The momentum, mean-reversion and volume plays mostly say out.
- It closed 15% above its 200-day average and 4% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads moderate: it fell about 1.9× as far as its index in past crashes.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in41 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureModerate3 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.15×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+15%). Higher than on 57% of days since 2015. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about BTC now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn BTC: right 28 of 64 · Out since Oct 12, 2026Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn BTC: right 62 of 160 · In since Aug 19, 2026Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn BTC: right 4 of 10 · Out since Dec 31, 2025Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn BTC: right 76 of 126 · Out since Jul 3, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn BTC: right 15 of 26 · Out since Aug 28, 2026Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn BTC: right 181 of 379 · In since Sep 14, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn BTC: right 10 of 24 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
BTC, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on BTC
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following19 of 30 inBreakouts & channels7 of 15 inMomentum4 of 17 inMean reversion4 of 15 inVolume & money flow2 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns1 of 3 inCalendar4 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on BTC went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2014. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 +1.6% | Enter above $83,306 (+0.3%) | 29% 114/388 | +69.3% / +58.2% | −49.5% / −83.4% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | IN | Aug 23, 2026 +6.9% | Exit below $70,977 (−14.6%) | 34% 13/38 | +66.0% / +65.2% | −72.5% / −83.4% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | IN | Aug 17, 2026 +28.8% | Exit below $80,206 (−3.5%) | 28% 57/201 | +69.1% / +60.3% | −56.7% / −83.4% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | IN | Sep 9, 2026 +6.2% | Exit below $81,157 (−2.3%) | 23% 25/109 | +49.3% / +67.8% | −46.9% / −83.4% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Sep 13, 2026 +8.1% | Exit below $72,257 (−13.0%) | 24% 9/37 | +50.2% / +67.3% | −68.8% / −83.4% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Nov 2, 2025 −24.9% | Enter above $85,765 (+3.2%) | 26% 10/38 | +60.1% / +70.1% | −64.3% / −83.4% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | IN | Aug 31, 2026 +5.8% | Exit below $71,912 (−13.5%) | 47% 7/15 | +71.6% / +66.7% | −72.4% / −83.4% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | IN | Aug 19, 2026 +20.0% | Exit below $72,158 (−13.2%) | 15% 11/75 | +61.4% / +64.9% | −70.1% / −83.4% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Sep 8, 2026 +5.9% | Not on one close | 43% 9/21 | +55.4% / +64.9% | −68.4% / −83.4% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Sep 3, 2026 +2.2% | Exit below $72,158 (−13.2%) | 17% 11/63 | +48.6% / +67.3% | −71.5% / −83.4% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | IN | Aug 2, 2026 +30.9% | Exit below $75,587 (−9.0%) | 42% 31/73 | +53.6% / +64.9% | −63.7% / −83.4% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 +1.6% | Enter above $83,420 (+0.4%) | 27% 156/584 | +52.4% / +57.7% | −61.8% / −83.4% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 +6.2% | Enter above $105,081 (+26.5%) | 45% 71/159 | +65.3% / +65.4% | −71.0% / −83.4% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +2.7% | Not on one close | 47% 8/17 | +58.6% / +65.5% | −79.0% / −83.4% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | IN | Aug 20, 2026 +13.8% | Exit below $72,771 (−12.4%) | 47% 37/79 | +65.8% / +66.5% | −62.1% / −83.4% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | IN | Aug 19, 2026 +20.0% | Exit below $72,245 (−13.1%) | 38% 30/79 | +52.7% / +57.8% | −65.7% / −83.4% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | IN | Jul 21, 2026 +24.9% | Exit below $79,708 (−4.1%) | 37% 46/125 | +42.1% / +57.5% | −54.1% / −83.4% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 +1.6% | Not on one close | 45% 100/222 | +66.0% / +57.5% | −42.1% / −83.4% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | OUT | Oct 6, 2026 −2.9% | Enter above $85,433 (+2.8%) | 40% 156/388 | +71.0% / +56.6% | −67.2% / −83.4% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 −4.1% | Exit below $80,098 (−3.6%) | 40% 69/173 | +48.4% / +56.3% | −59.7% / −83.4% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −0.2% | Enter above $85,766 (+3.2%) | 39% 128/328 | +35.0% / +56.5% | −75.3% / −83.4% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $84,127 (+1.2%) | 39% 57/148 | +48.4% / +56.2% | −52.0% / −83.4% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | IN | Aug 19, 2026 +20.0% | Exit below $76,036 (−8.5%) | 40% 49/122 | +66.7% / +56.9% | −59.3% / −83.4% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | IN | Sep 20, 2026 +2.4% | Exit below $83,021 (−0.1%) | 39% 63/162 | +56.5% / +56.6% | −71.5% / −83.4% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Aug 20, 2026 +13.8% | Exit below $53,235 (−35.9%) | 36% 59/166 | +58.8% / +56.9% | −57.7% / −83.4% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +1.7% | Not on one close | 47% 70/148 | +73.7% / +65.4% | −52.5% / −83.4% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | IN | Aug 19, 2026 +20.0% | Exit below $75,392 (−9.3%) | 41% 46/113 | +71.9% / +60.3% | −58.8% / −83.4% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | IN | Aug 20, 2026 +13.8% | Exit below $33,284 (−59.9%) | 46% 29/63 | +66.1% / +60.3% | −66.6% / −83.4% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 −0.5% | Not on one close | 29% 38/130 | +30.6% / +67.3% | −60.3% / −83.4% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 +1.6% | Not on one close | 44% 28/64 | +3.6% / +56.9% | −29.4% / −83.4% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 −4.1% | Exit below $80,337 (−3.3%) | 49% 45/91 | +56.2% / +57.5% | −61.2% / −83.4% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +1.7% | Enter above $87,147 (+4.9%) | 44% 41/94 | +54.0% / +55.7% | −36.0% / −83.4% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +1.7% | Enter above $87,364 (+5.1%) | 40% 28/70 | +46.7% / +55.7% | −49.1% / −83.4% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | Aug 27, 2026 +3.5% | Exit below $79,978 (−3.8%) | 42% 28/67 | +46.4% / +60.3% | −41.5% / −83.4% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 +8.5% | Enter above $87,364 (+5.1%) | 47% 32/68 | +44.3% / +57.5% | −48.3% / −83.4% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −0.2% | Enter above $88,585 (+6.6%) | 46% 51/112 | +54.6% / +57.7% | −36.1% / −83.4% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −0.2% | Enter above $86,788 (+4.4%) | 39% 65/166 | +43.9% / +58.1% | −55.4% / −83.4% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 −4.1% | Exit below $80,787 (−2.8%) | 41% 62/151 | +54.8% / +57.2% | −58.0% / −83.4% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Aug 19, 2026 +20.0% | Exit below $80,169 (−3.5%) | 43% 61/143 | +67.6% / +57.5% | −43.5% / −83.4% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | Aug 19, 2026 +20.0% | Exit below $73,739 (−11.3%) | 39% 62/160 | +42.3% / +54.9% | −73.8% / −83.4% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Sep 19, 2026 +2.3% | Exit below $81,596 (−1.8%) | 33% 85/258 | +67.1% / +56.6% | −52.9% / −83.4% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −1.5% | Not on one close | 40% 58/144 | +43.2% / +57.5% | −29.2% / −83.4% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 +5.8% | Enter above $92,429 (+11.2%) | 40% 38/94 | +11.4% / +57.7% | −52.2% / −83.4% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $82,472 (−0.7%) | 35% 192/555 | +55.7% / +56.6% | −70.0% / −83.4% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 +6.2% | Not on one close | 28% 9/32 | +10.6% / +66.0% | −34.6% / −83.4% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | OUT | Nov 30, 2025 −8.1% | Enter above $113,601 (+36.7%) | 62% 5/8 | +61.0% / +70.0% | −81.0% / −83.4% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | OUT | Dec 31, 2025 −5.0% | Not on one close | 40% 4/10 | +44.0% / +70.0% | −90.4% / −83.4% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | OUT | Nov 30, 2025 −8.1% | Enter above $126,317 (+52.0%) | 70% 7/10 | +60.9% / +70.0% | −81.0% / −83.4% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | Aug 23, 2026 +6.9% | Exit below $73,377 (−11.7%) | 25% 24/95 | +25.6% / +59.8% | −49.0% / −83.4% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | OUT | Nov 30, 2025 −8.1% | Enter above $105,107 (+26.5%) | 42% 10/24 | +44.3% / +69.9% | −54.5% / −83.4% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | IN | Aug 23, 2026 +6.9% | Exit below $75,589 (−9.0%) | 29% 12/41 | +64.2% / +64.3% | −64.4% / −83.4% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Sep 29, 2026 −0.6% | Enter above $90,471 (+8.9%) | 38% 111/293 | +63.7% / +56.9% | −50.9% / −83.4% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 +1.6% | Enter above $83,315 (+0.3%) | 32% 167/518 | +64.1% / +56.9% | −58.0% / −83.4% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 −2.1% | Enter above $106,928 (+28.7%) | 48% 102/212 | +59.6% / +57.7% | −64.8% / −83.4% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | OUT | May 31, 2026 +12.9% | Enter above $74,837 (−9.9%) | 50% 2/4 | +20.5% / +63.1% | −73.2% / −83.4% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Sep 26, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $86,738 (+4.4%) | 35% 136/394 | +51.0% / +57.5% | −41.9% / −83.4% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | OUT | Oct 2, 2026 −1.7% | Enter above $124,603 (+50.0%) | 48% 85/176 | +59.9% / +60.3% | −66.7% / −83.4% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | IN | Aug 19, 2026 +20.0% | Exit below $75,574 (−9.1%) | 39% 47/119 | +67.7% / +60.3% | −64.5% / −83.4% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | IN | Aug 31, 2026 +5.8% | Exit below $78,305 (−5.8%) | 52% 14/27 | +70.5% / +70.0% | −76.1% / −83.4% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | OUT | Dec 31, 2025 −5.0% | Not on one close | 33% 3/9 | +20.7% / +38.4% | −90.4% / −83.4% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | OUT | Dec 31, 2025 −5.0% | Not on one close | 33% 4/12 | +31.3% / +70.0% | −90.4% / −83.4% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 29, 2026 −0.6% | Enter above $95,670 (+15.1%) | 43% 92/215 | +73.7% / +65.4% | −66.1% / −83.4% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Aug 30, 2026 +7.0% | Not on one close | 60% 25/42 | +17.0% / +57.2% | −67.6% / −83.4% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 11, 2026 −0.7% | Buy $72,158–$76,292 (−8.2%) | 64% 145/226 | +11.0% / +64.9% | −32.5% / −83.4% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 −0.2% | Sell above $83,680 (+0.7%) | 63% 153/241 | +13.5% / +64.9% | −47.7% / −83.4% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Jul 3, 2026 +32.9% | Buy below $81,050 (−2.5%) | 60% 76/126 | −5.3% / +58.1% | −80.0% / −83.4% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −1.5% | Not on one close | 61% 74/121 | +0.3% / +58.4% | −82.5% / −83.4% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 +0.7% | Not on one close | 62% 127/205 | +14.3% / +56.6% | −67.0% / −83.4% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | OUT | Aug 25, 2026 +5.8% | Not on one close | 60% 30/50 | +11.2% / +54.5% | −80.9% / −83.4% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Mar 14, 2021 +40.1% | Sell above $174,407 (+109.9%) | 75% 15/20 | +64.5% / +64.9% | −78.7% / −83.4% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Jun 7, 2026 +31.4% | Not on one close | 61% 28/46 | +5.7% / +65.4% | −35.3% / −83.4% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Sep 29, 2026 −0.6% | Enter above $83,520 (+0.5%) | 52% 134/256 | +50.0% / +57.7% | −61.9% / −83.4% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Oct 3, 2026 −2.0% | Not on one close | 50% 158/319 | +12.8% / +57.7% | −74.4% / −83.4% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Buy below $83,094 (0.0%) | 59% 739/1260 | −1.5% / +54.8% | −56.7% / −83.4% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Dec 9, 2025 −10.4% | Not on one close | 47% 30/64 | +5.4% / +64.9% | −46.1% / −83.4% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −0.2% | Enter above $83,672 (+0.7%) | 39% 314/800 | +55.7% / +56.9% | −49.1% / −83.4% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | OUT | Jul 31, 2026 +32.3% | Buy below $85,239 (+2.6%) | 61% 48/79 | +10.4% / +59.0% | −68.0% / −83.4% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 −1.5% | Not on one close | 26% 175/662 | +47.3% / +58.1% | −62.3% / −83.4% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 +1.6% | Not on one close | 42% 57/136 | +63.2% / +57.5% | −64.3% / −83.4% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 +6.8% | Not on one close | 58% 15/26 | +2.7% / +57.2% | −76.9% / −83.4% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | OUT | Jan 31, 2026 +5.7% | Enter above $85,869 (+3.3%) | 44% 15/34 | +47.2% / +67.8% | −59.6% / −83.4% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −0.2% | Enter above $84,368 (+1.5%) | 30% 156/513 | +71.1% / +55.9% | −57.6% / −83.4% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +1.7% | Enter above $87,604 (+5.4%) | 35% 93/262 | +51.6% / +58.1% | −68.3% / −83.4% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Oct 2, 2026 −1.7% | Not on one close | 31% 153/490 | +39.7% / +57.5% | −74.7% / −83.4% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | IN | Oct 3, 2026 −2.0% | Not on one close | 32% 21/66 | +64.7% / +68.3% | −72.9% / −83.4% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Sell $68,886–$82,511 (−0.7%) | 36% 268/749 | +32.4% / +61.9% | −63.9% / −83.4% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | IN | Sep 14, 2026 +6.3% | Exit below $81,762 (−1.6%) | 48% 181/379 | +45.8% / +54.9% | −54.3% / −83.4% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Sep 15, 2026 +9.9% | Not on one close | 48% 45/94 | +68.3% / +55.6% | −62.4% / −83.4% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | May 28, 2026 +13.0% | Not on one close | 50% 19/38 | +2.6% / +57.1% | −10.8% / −83.4% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 +8.9% | Buys Oct 31 | 42% 10/24 | +24.8% / +54.8% | −78.0% / −83.4% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 27, 2026 +7.4% | Enter above $86,979 (+4.7%) | 50% 12/24 | +27.2% / +56.9% | −77.9% / −83.4% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | Apr 28, 2026 +8.8% | Window opens Oct 16 | 43% 10/23 | +40.9% / +56.9% | −76.6% / −83.4% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 2, 2026 −7.6% | Buys Dec 26 | 46% 11/24 | +3.8% / +54.8% | −19.6% / −83.4% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 3, 2026 −2.0% | Buys Oct 30 | 52% 150/290 | +16.1% / +54.8% | −39.4% / −83.4% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 −0.5% | Sells Jun 30 | 43% 3/7 | +6.3% / +54.8% | −68.9% / −83.4% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 +4.3% | Buys Nov 24 | 53% 118/224 | +1.4% / +54.8% | −22.0% / −83.4% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 31, 2022 +402.2% | Not on one close | 30% 3/10 | +32.6% / +60.5% | −83.4% / −83.4% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 +1.6% | Sells Oct 16 | 48% 609/1259 | +4.0% / +54.8% | −78.8% / −83.4% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 +9.1% | Buys Oct 27 | 49% 93/190 | +1.9% / +54.8% | −38.4% / −83.4% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 3, 2026 −2.0% | Sells Oct 18 | 47% 140/298 | +29.9% / +54.8% | −62.9% / −83.4% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Sep 17, 2014 | Always in | – | +53.8% | −83.4% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureModerate3 of 10 points
- Market swings1/3
- Past crashes2/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
- It fell about 1.9× as far as its index in past crashes.
- Beta0.62Moves about 0.6× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture154%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 154% as much on average.
- Two-year change+32%
- From 52-week high−27%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.