Volume & money flow · daily rule · Crypto
Money Flow Index on Bitcoin
BTC with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2014
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding BTC over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2014 | Hold, since 2014 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +2.7% | +57.2% | +2.0% | +7.7% |
| Total return | +37% | +23,013% | +11% | +45% |
| Worst drawdown | −76.9% | −83.4% | −62.0% | −76.6% |
| Volatility | 31.5% | 66.0% | 34.3% | 51.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.18 | 0.99 | 0.12 | 0.33 |
| Time invested | 30% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 15 of 26 closed calls (58%). In calls averaged +4.6%; out calls saw BTC move +308.2% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | BTC moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | OUT | $77,830 | now | +6.8% | open |
| Jun 11, 2026 | IN | $63,561 | Aug 28, 2026 | +22.4% | ✓ right |
| Apr 15, 2026 | OUT | $74,805 | Jun 11, 2026 | −15.0% | ✓ right |
| Nov 26, 2025 | IN | $90,518 | Apr 15, 2026 | −17.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 15, 2025 | OUT | $117,777 | Nov 26, 2025 | −23.1% | ✓ right |
| Mar 2, 2025 | IN | $94,248 | Jul 15, 2025 | +25.0% | ✓ right |
| Oct 1, 2024 | OUT | $60,837 | Mar 2, 2025 | +54.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 6, 2024 | IN | $56,034 | Oct 1, 2024 | +8.6% | ✓ right |
| Nov 6, 2023 | OUT | $35,037 | Aug 6, 2024 | +59.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 23, 2023 | IN | $26,432 | Nov 6, 2023 | +32.6% | ✓ right |
| Jan 24, 2023 | OUT | $22,636 | Aug 23, 2023 | +16.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 13, 2022 | IN | $41,167 | Jan 24, 2023 | −45.0% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 27 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.