Market indexes
Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow)
An index is a scoreboard, not something you can buy directly. Investors hold it through an index fund or ETF, which tracks it closely. The plays read the index itself.
Your signal
Hold: 58 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−5% from its 1-year high) scores 84 and lifts it; Plays in (44%) scores 44 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | Dow | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 44% | 44 | 40 | 17.6 |
| Off the high | −5% from its 1-year high | 84 | 30 | 25.2 |
| Trend | +3% vs 200-day | 52 | 30 | 15.6 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for Dow
| Factor | Dow | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 44% | 44 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −5% from its 1-year high | 84 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | +3% vs 200-day | 52 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | +12% | 48 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 0/10 · low | 100 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
- 44 of the 100 plays hold Dow right now.
- The volume plays mostly say in; the breakout and pattern plays mostly say out.
- It closed 3% above its 200-day average and 5% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about Dow now.
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
Dow, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on Dow
All 100 plays, by family.
Calls right: how often the play's calls on Dow went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Exit below 51,524 (−0.3%) | 28% 176/626 | +0.5% / +7.5% | −50.6% / −53.8% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 0.0% | Enter above 52,345 (+1.3%) | 27% 29/109 | +3.6% / +7.5% | −20.2% / −53.8% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −1.4% | Enter above 52,021 (+0.7%) | 27% 89/333 | +3.8% / +7.5% | −26.9% / −53.8% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | Feb 27, 2026 +5.5% | Enter above 58,717 (+13.6%) | 24% 8/34 | +2.2% / +7.5% | −8.8% / −53.8% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +7.8% | Exit below 51,141 (−1.0%) | 19% 17/88 | +4.3% / +7.5% | −32.2% / −53.8% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Jul 10, 2026 −1.8% | Enter above 54,624 (+5.7%) | 25% 14/56 | +0.9% / +7.5% | −23.2% / −53.8% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | IN | Apr 30, 2026 +4.1% | Exit below 50,422 (−2.4%) | 32% 12/38 | +6.3% / +7.5% | −21.8% / −53.8% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | IN | Apr 8, 2026 +7.8% | Exit below 50,397 (−2.5%) | 17% 29/166 | +4.6% / +7.5% | −18.4% / −53.8% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Jul 15, 2025 +17.4% | Not on one close | 33% 9/27 | +4.8% / +7.5% | −39.3% / −53.8% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Apr 8, 2026 +7.8% | Exit below 50,397 (−2.5%) | 18% 22/123 | +5.5% / +7.5% | −16.0% / −53.8% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 −1.7% | Enter above 54,487 (+5.5%) | 38% 51/133 | +3.9% / +7.5% | −22.1% / −53.8% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 −2.1% | Enter above 52,028 (+0.7%) | 25% 198/788 | −0.2% / +7.5% | −57.4% / −53.8% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below 50,770 (−1.7%) | 39% 105/270 | +4.4% / +7.5% | −32.8% / −53.8% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | May 13, 2025 +22.6% | Not on one close | 29% 7/24 | +4.2% / +7.5% | −30.5% / −53.8% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −0.8% | Enter above 56,740 (+9.8%) | 30% 42/139 | +3.0% / +7.5% | −17.3% / −53.8% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | OUT | Sep 15, 2026 −0.8% | Enter above 53,487 (+3.5%) | 32% 34/105 | +4.5% / +7.5% | −22.5% / −53.8% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −1.4% | Enter above 52,365 (+1.3%) | 41% 73/177 | +4.4% / +7.5% | −26.2% / −53.8% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 −1.7% | Not on one close | 39% 121/309 | +2.2% / +7.5% | −21.6% / −53.8% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below 50,970 (−1.4%) | 35% 183/516 | +2.6% / +7.5% | −32.9% / −53.8% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 −2.1% | Enter above 52,751 (+2.1%) | 35% 67/189 | +3.5% / +7.5% | −20.6% / −53.8% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below 50,997 (−1.3%) | 38% 201/535 | +2.5% / +7.5% | −37.6% / −53.8% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Jul 20, 2026 −0.3% | Enter above 60,751 (+17.6%) | 30% 46/151 | +1.7% / +7.5% | −12.8% / −53.8% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −1.4% | Enter above 54,461 (+5.4%) | 31% 53/171 | +3.8% / +7.5% | −28.1% / −53.8% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 0.0% | Enter above 53,224 (+3.0%) | 33% 38/115 | +4.1% / +7.5% | −33.2% / −53.8% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −2.1% | Enter above 53,505 (+3.6%) | 33% 70/213 | +2.7% / +7.5% | −34.3% / −53.8% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Not on one close | 38% 91/238 | +2.5% / +7.5% | −49.3% / −53.8% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −1.4% | Enter above 54,078 (+4.7%) | 33% 43/129 | +4.2% / +7.5% | −23.8% / −53.8% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 0.0% | Enter above 57,893 (+12.0%) | 29% 28/97 | +4.8% / +7.5% | −20.8% / −53.8% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Jul 10, 2026 −1.8% | Not on one close | 32% 72/223 | +1.6% / +7.5% | −24.7% / −53.8% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Oct 3, 2025 +10.5% | Not on one close | 59% 13/22 | +2.0% / +7.5% | −4.9% / −53.8% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −1.4% | Enter above 52,319 (+1.3%) | 32% 45/139 | +3.9% / +7.5% | −25.0% / −53.8% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Aug 18, 2026 −3.1% | Enter above 54,744 (+5.9%) | 28% 53/187 | +0.5% / +7.5% | −17.7% / −53.8% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −1.4% | Enter above 54,744 (+5.9%) | 23% 28/123 | +1.7% / +7.5% | −20.9% / −53.8% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Aug 20, 2026 −2.1% | Enter above 54,349 (+5.2%) | 26% 32/123 | +2.0% / +7.5% | −21.2% / −53.8% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −1.4% | Not on one close | 26% 33/126 | +0.9% / +7.5% | −24.9% / −53.8% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Aug 20, 2026 −2.1% | Enter above 52,912 (+2.4%) | 32% 57/177 | +2.0% / +7.5% | −13.5% / −53.8% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Aug 20, 2026 −2.1% | Enter above 52,216 (+1.1%) | 32% 64/197 | +1.8% / +7.5% | −19.7% / −53.8% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | OUT | Aug 20, 2026 −2.1% | Enter above 52,421 (+1.5%) | 39% 64/165 | +5.4% / +7.5% | −23.5% / −53.8% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Aug 20, 2026 −2.1% | Enter above 52,389 (+1.4%) | 39% 74/189 | +3.8% / +7.5% | −34.8% / −53.8% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | May 8, 2025 +24.9% | Exit below 44,946 (−13.0%) | 43% 12/28 | +5.7% / +7.5% | −30.7% / −53.8% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −3.3% | Enter above 52,007 (+0.7%) | 27% 99/365 | +2.1% / +7.5% | −33.7% / −53.8% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Aug 6, 2026 −4.1% | Not on one close | 28% 64/228 | +1.4% / +7.5% | −17.5% / −53.8% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Aug 18, 2026 −3.1% | Enter above 52,388 (+1.4%) | 32% 46/142 | +1.5% / +7.5% | −18.7% / −53.8% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above 51,928 (+0.5%) | 32% 251/776 | −0.1% / +7.5% | −44.2% / −53.8% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Feb 19, 2026 +4.6% | Enter above 52,216 (+1.1%) | 17% 6/36 | +0.9% / +7.5% | −11.9% / −53.8% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | IN | Dec 29, 2023 +37.1% | Exit below 49,319 (−4.5%) | 35% 12/34 | +5.3% / +7.5% | −26.1% / −53.8% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | IN | Dec 29, 2023 +37.1% | Not on one close | 61% 17/28 | +6.6% / +7.5% | −37.1% / −53.8% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | OUT | Nov 30, 2018 +102.3% | Enter above 54,839 (+6.1%) | 50% 10/20 | +3.9% / +7.6% | −16.0% / −53.8% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Sep 22, 2026 −0.4% | Buy 52,199–59,420 (+1.0%) | 18% 38/213 | +2.7% / +7.5% | −22.3% / −53.8% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | IN | Jan 31, 2023 +51.6% | Exit below 46,197 (−10.6%) | 67% 4/6 | +6.6% / +7.5% | −37.1% / −53.8% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | OUT | Aug 7, 2026 −4.4% | Enter above 53,739 (+4.0%) | 32% 34/106 | +1.0% / +7.5% | −24.9% / −53.8% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 50,026 (−3.2%) | 36% 162/450 | +5.0% / +7.5% | −24.8% / −53.8% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below 51,535 (−0.3%) | 31% 234/758 | +0.9% / +7.5% | −44.7% / −53.8% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below 47,248 (−8.6%) | 39% 125/324 | +3.4% / +7.5% | −31.7% / −53.8% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Mar 31, 2023 +55.3% | Not on one close | 44% 7/16 | +7.3% / +7.5% | −37.1% / −53.8% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Aug 11, 2026 −3.9% | Enter above 52,066 (+0.8%) | 28% 197/698 | −0.2% / +7.5% | −41.0% / −53.8% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below 48,727 (−5.7%) | 36% 102/286 | +2.0% / +7.5% | −30.6% / −53.8% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −1.4% | Enter above 54,665 (+5.8%) | 31% 53/169 | +3.6% / +7.5% | −27.9% / −53.8% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +1.5% | Enter above 50,905 (−1.5%) | 37% 31/83 | +4.3% / +7.5% | −23.5% / −53.8% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | IN | Dec 29, 2023 +37.1% | Not on one close | 50% 12/24 | +5.1% / +7.4% | −37.1% / −53.8% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | IN | Dec 29, 2023 +37.1% | Not on one close | 59% 19/32 | +5.8% / +7.5% | −37.1% / −53.8% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Exit below 50,743 (−1.8%) | 37% 126/344 | +4.5% / +7.5% | −26.3% / −53.8% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Jun 3, 2026 +1.9% | Not on one close | 73% 32/44 | +5.5% / +7.5% | −52.3% / −53.8% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 2, 2026 +1.0% | Not on one close | 63% 239/378 | +3.5% / +7.5% | −13.2% / −53.8% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 6, 2026 +0.3% | Buy 50,397–51,180 (−0.9%) | 65% 291/447 | +5.3% / +7.5% | −14.3% / −53.8% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 +0.0% | Buy below 50,761 (−1.8%) | 58% 114/198 | +3.7% / +7.5% | −33.5% / −53.8% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | IN | Sep 14, 2026 −1.4% | Not on one close | 63% 99/157 | +5.8% / +7.5% | −31.4% / −53.8% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Not on one close | 63% 180/284 | +4.3% / +7.5% | −54.4% / −53.8% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | IN | Aug 20, 2026 −2.1% | Not on one close | 65% 46/71 | +3.2% / +7.5% | −53.8% / −53.8% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Nov 22, 2004 +392.6% | Sell above 121,810 (+135.7%) | – | +7.5% / +7.5% | −53.8% / −53.8% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Jun 16, 2020 +96.5% | Buy below 36,917 (−28.6%) | 67% 4/6 | +2.1% / +7.5% | −10.6% / −53.8% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Aug 25, 2026 −3.6% | Not on one close | 48% 143/300 | +2.7% / +7.5% | −60.6% / −53.8% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 +1.0% | Not on one close | 55% 243/438 | +0.9% / +7.5% | −54.3% / −53.8% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Sell above 51,670 (0.0%) | 60% 1029/1711 | +5.0% / +7.5% | −17.6% / −53.8% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | IN | Sep 2, 2026 −2.6% | Sell above 51,892 (+0.4%) | 58% 56/97 | +4.5% / +7.5% | −14.5% / −53.8% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.0% | Exit below 51,117 (−1.1%) | 38% 406/1075 | +0.9% / +7.5% | −50.9% / −53.8% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | IN | Aug 31, 2026 −2.9% | Sell above 51,933 (+0.5%) | 52% 69/132 | +5.1% / +7.5% | −41.3% / −53.8% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Not on one close | 27% 211/784 | +1.2% / +7.5% | −39.6% / −53.8% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Aug 12, 2026 −3.9% | Not on one close | 35% 65/187 | +2.2% / +7.5% | −39.1% / −53.8% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | IN | Sep 25, 2026 −0.3% | Not on one close | 48% 16/33 | +2.1% / +7.5% | −46.4% / −53.8% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Jan 29, 2015 +196.7% | Not on one close | 23% 7/30 | +7.5% / +7.5% | −37.1% / −53.8% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 +0.0% | Exit below 51,598 (−0.1%) | 28% 231/814 | +0.9% / +7.5% | −48.0% / −53.8% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below 51,083 (−1.1%) | 34% 119/348 | +3.3% / +7.5% | −30.4% / −53.8% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below 51,670 (0.0%) | 33% 190/572 | −1.4% / +7.5% | −57.0% / −53.8% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | IN | Apr 30, 2026 +4.1% | Not on one close | 37% 32/86 | +5.3% / +7.5% | −39.8% / −53.8% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Not on one close | 34% 316/921 | +0.5% / +7.5% | −55.1% / −53.8% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | OUT | Jul 16, 2026 −1.7% | Not on one close | 50% 52/104 | +2.9% / +7.5% | −56.3% / −53.8% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 +0.6% | Not on one close | 30% 33/110 | +1.9% / +7.5% | −25.3% / −53.8% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Mar 18, 2026 +11.8% | Not on one close | 44% 28/64 | +1.9% / +7.5% | −9.0% / −53.8% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 +4.1% | Buys Oct 30 | 51% 22/43 | +5.4% / +7.5% | −37.1% / −53.8% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Window opens Apr 1 | 50% 22/44 | +5.5% / +7.5% | −38.1% / −53.8% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | May 5, 2026 +4.8% | Window opens Oct 16 | 51% 22/43 | +5.5% / +7.5% | −37.1% / −53.8% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 +5.5% | Buys Dec 23 | 43% 19/44 | +2.1% / +7.5% | −6.6% / −53.8% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +0.8% | Buys Oct 29 | 47% 247/526 | +1.7% / +7.5% | −18.3% / −53.8% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +1.5% | Sells Jun 30 | 55% 6/11 | +3.8% / +7.5% | −18.8% / −53.8% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −3.3% | Buys Nov 24 | 46% 185/400 | +1.7% / +7.5% | −7.1% / −53.8% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +55.9% | Not on one close | 30% 6/20 | +4.9% / +7.5% | −26.9% / −53.8% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Sells Oct 16 | 52% 1179/2284 | +2.0% / +7.5% | −43.3% / −53.8% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 +0.4% | Buys Oct 27 | 45% 155/348 | +2.1% / +7.5% | −5.2% / −53.8% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.0% | Sells Oct 16 | 49% 266/541 | +3.2% / +7.5% | −32.7% / −53.8% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jan 3, 2005 | Always in | – | +7.5% | −53.8% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test works- Market swings0/3
- Past crashes0/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
Nothing on the checklist stands out.
- Beta0.80Moves about 0.8× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture114%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 114% as much on average.
- Two-year change+21%
- From 52-week high−5%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
Who would feel a crash first
The U.S. stocks Be The Puck covers, ranked by crash exposure. Be The Puck covers a sample of names, not the full index.
| Stock | Exposure | Beta | 2-yr change | Plays in | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKLBRocket Lab | Very high 10/10 | 2.51 | +562% | 26 of 100 in | moves about 2.5× its index; fell about 2.7× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 562% in |
| OPTTOcean Power Technologies | Very high 9/10 | 16.32 | +380% | 30 of 100 in | moves about 16.3× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 380% in |
| CARAvis Budget | Very high 8/10 | 1.85 | +30% | 22 of 100 in | moves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit |
| CRWDCrowdStrike | Very high 8/10 | 1.90 | +226% | 62 of 100 in | moves about 1.9× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 226% in |
| EOSEEos Energy | Very high 8/10 | 2.52 | −26% | 15 of 100 in | moves about 2.5× its index; fell about 3.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit |
| FLNCFluence Energy | Very high 8/10 | 2.08 | −69% | 24 of 100 in | moves about 2.1× its index; fell about 3.2× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| GPROGoPro | Very high 8/10 | 2.77 | −9% | 32 of 100 in | moves about 2.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| LITELumentum | Very high 8/10 | 2.32 | +1,348% | 55 of 100 in | moves about 2.3× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 1348% in |
| MARAMARA Holdings | Very high 8/10 | 2.01 | −43% | 14 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 2.6× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| RIOTRiot Platforms | Very high 8/10 | 2.37 | +98% | 19 of 100 in | moves about 2.4× its index; fell about 2.4× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| AMDAMD | Very high 7/10 | 2.04 | +261% | 57 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 261% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| INTCIntel | Very high 7/10 | 2.00 | +336% | 34 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 2.4×; is up 336% in t |
| MSTRStrategy (MicroStrategy) | Very high 7/10 | 1.50 | −28% | 40 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| MUMicron | Very high 7/10 | 2.52 | +796% | 40 of 100 in | moves about 2.5× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 796% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| QUTXQuantum X | Very high 7/10 | −6.16 | +800% | 20 of 100 in | fell about 2.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit doesn't cover its interest; |
| WSCWillScot | Very high 7/10 | 1.76 | −51% | 25 of 100 in | moves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 4.4× as much debt as equity; operating profit cover |
| APPAppLovin | High 6/10 | 3.12 | +85% | 16 of 100 in | moves about 3.1× its index; fell about 3.2× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.6× as much debt as equity |
| AXONAxon Enterprise | High 6/10 | 1.52 | −5% | 20 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 1.2× |
| BTDRBitdeer Technologies | High 6/10 | 2.41 | +22% | 12 of 100 in | moves about 2.4× its index; carries 2.2× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 1.7× |
| CRWVCoreWeave | High 6/10 | 1.71 | – | 11 of 98 in | moves about 1.7× its index; carries 15.5× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 0.0× |
| HTZHertz | High 6/10 | 1.20 | −37% | 34 of 100 in | moves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit |
| LRCXLam Research | High 6/10 | 2.04 | +269% | 43 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 269% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| NPCENeuroPace | High 6/10 | 0.94 | +92% | 26 of 100 in | fell about 2.8× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 3.7× as much debt as equity; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| PLTRPalantir | High 6/10 | 2.48 | +380% | 68 of 100 in | moves about 2.5× its index; fell about 2.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 380% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| SBUXStarbucks | High 6/10 | 1.13 | +1% | 28 of 100 in | moves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity) |
| STXSeagate Technology | High 6/10 | 1.99 | +601% | 29 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; is up 601% in two year |
| TERTeradyne | High 6/10 | 1.70 | +190% | 45 of 100 in | moves about 1.7× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 190% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| WDCWestern Digital | High 6/10 | 2.19 | +680% | 28 of 100 in | moves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 680% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| ASMLASML Holding | High 5/10 | 1.52 | +108% | 46 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 108% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| BKNGBooking Holdings | High 5/10 | 1.14 | −7% | 23 of 100 in | moves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity) |
| HOLOMicroCloud Hologram | High 5/10 | 2.89 | −99% | 12 of 100 in | moves about 2.9× its index; fell about 3.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| LSCCLattice Semiconductor | High 5/10 | 2.03 | +133% | 47 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 3.7×; is up 133% in t |
| MCHPMicrochip Technology | High 5/10 | 2.00 | +0% | 31 of 100 in | moves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 2.3× |
| MRVLMarvell Technology | High 5/10 | 2.20 | +265% | 63 of 100 in | moves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 265% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| NBISNebius Group | High 5/10 | 2.73 | – | 30 of 98 in | moves about 2.7× its index; carries 2.2× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 1.2× |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors | High 5/10 | 1.53 | −1% | 23 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes |
| PRSOPeraso | High 5/10 | 0.80 | −77% | 16 of 100 in | fell about 2.0× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| TSLATesla | High 5/10 | 1.82 | +72% | 45 of 100 in | moves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ALABAstera Labs | Moderate 4/10 | 2.78 | +388% | 46 of 99 in | moves about 2.8× its index; is up 388% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals | Moderate 4/10 | 0.96 | −21% | 13 of 100 in | carries 3.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.3× |
| AMATApplied Materials | Moderate 4/10 | 1.69 | +130% | 42 of 100 in | moves about 1.7× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 130% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| AVGOBroadcom | Moderate 4/10 | 2.49 | +100% | 36 of 100 in | moves about 2.5× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 100% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| CEGConstellation Energy | Moderate 4/10 | 1.51 | +12% | 54 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; carries 1.7× as much debt as equity |
| DASHDoorDash | Moderate 4/10 | 1.77 | +29% | 41 of 100 in | moves about 1.8× its index; fell about 2.7× as far as its index in past crashes |
| DDOGDatadog | Moderate 4/10 | 1.39 | +118% | 68 of 100 in | moves about 1.4× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| JPMJPMorgan Chase | Moderate 4/10 | 1.02 | +55% | 37 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 3.7× as much debt as equity |
| KLACKLA | Moderate 4/10 | 1.86 | +132% | 42 of 100 in | moves about 1.9× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 132% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h |
| MARMarriott | Moderate 4/10 | 0.96 | +44% | 67 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity) |
| METAMeta Platforms | Moderate 4/10 | 1.47 | +30% | 57 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes |
| NAMMNamib Minerals | Moderate 4/10 | −2.48 | – | 19 of 98 in | owes more than it owns (negative equity) |
| NVDANvidia | Moderate 4/10 | 2.15 | +70% | 54 of 100 in | moves about 2.1× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes |
| SUPXSuperX AI Technology | Moderate 4/10 | 0.03 | +43% | 19 of 99 in | operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| URIUnited Rentals | Moderate 4/10 | 1.41 | +32% | 61 of 100 in | moves about 1.4× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.7× as much debt as equity |
| ABNBAirbnb | Moderate 3/10 | 1.29 | +23% | 48 of 100 in | moves about 1.3× its index; fell about 1.9× as far as its index in past crashes |
| AMGNAmgen | Moderate 3/10 | 0.41 | +34% | 62 of 100 in | carries 6.6× as much debt as equity |
| AMZNAmazon | Moderate 3/10 | 1.47 | +37% | 61 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ARMArm Holdings | Moderate 3/10 | 2.82 | +69% | 30 of 100 in | moves about 2.8× its index |
| CARRCarrier Global | Moderate 3/10 | 1.23 | −31% | 24 of 100 in | moves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| FCFranklin Covey | Moderate 3/10 | 1.17 | −54% | 46 of 100 in | moves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ISRGIntuitive Surgical | Moderate 3/10 | 1.22 | −13% | 54 of 100 in | moves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes |
| MELIMercadoLibre | Moderate 3/10 | 1.02 | −10% | 48 of 100 in | fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 2.0× as much debt as equity |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems | Moderate 3/10 | 2.20 | +43% | 48 of 100 in | moves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive | Moderate 3/10 | 0.21 | +9% | 34 of 100 in | owes more than it owns (negative equity) |
| PYPLPayPal | Moderate 3/10 | 1.13 | −29% | 56 of 100 in | moves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes |
| QCOMQualcomm | Moderate 3/10 | 1.79 | +9% | 32 of 100 in | moves about 1.8× its index |
| SNPSSynopsys | Moderate 3/10 | 1.61 | −8% | 54 of 100 in | moves about 1.6× its index |
| SPCXSpaceX | Moderate 3/10 | – | – | 35 of 59 in | operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| STMSTMicroelectronics | Moderate 3/10 | 1.60 | +81% | 36 of 100 in | moves about 1.6× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes |
| TTWOTake-Two Interactive | Moderate 3/10 | 0.86 | +29% | 22 of 100 in | operating profit doesn't cover its interest |
| WDAYWorkday | Moderate 3/10 | 1.08 | −23% | 41 of 100 in | fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ADBEAdobe | Low 2/10 | 1.05 | −52% | 25 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| ADIAnalog Devices | Low 2/10 | 1.56 | +83% | 64 of 100 in | moves about 1.6× its index |
| ADSKAutodesk | Low 2/10 | 1.05 | −18% | 48 of 100 in | fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power | Low 2/10 | −0.03 | +37% | 51 of 100 in | carries 1.7× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.8× |
| BKRBaker Hughes | Low 2/10 | 0.64 | +55% | 30 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes |
| CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific Partners | Low 2/10 | 0.41 | +43% | 57 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.6× as much debt as equity |
| CDNSCadence Design Systems | Low 2/10 | 1.49 | +18% | 52 of 100 in | moves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes |
| EIXEdison International | Low 2/10 | 0.20 | −26% | 38 of 100 in | carries 2.5× as much debt as equity |
| EXCExelon | Low 2/10 | −0.09 | +15% | 38 of 100 in | carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.5× |
| FERFerrovial | Low 2/10 | 0.70 | +28% | 23 of 100 in | carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 3.4× |
| FLXSFlexsteel Industries | Low 2/10 | 0.73 | +118% | 62 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| GEHCGE HealthCare | Low 2/10 | 1.25 | −24% | 46 of 100 in | moves about 1.3× its index |
| GOOGLAlphabet | Low 2/10 | 1.21 | +118% | 61 of 100 in | moves about 1.2× its index; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| HONAHoneywell Aerospace | Low 2/10 | – | – | 21 of 59 in | carries 1.9× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 3.9× |
| IDXXIDEXX Laboratories | Low 2/10 | 1.01 | +9% | 31 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| INTUIntuit | Low 2/10 | 0.68 | −50% | 33 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper | Low 2/10 | 0.18 | −5% | 67 of 100 in | |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks | Low 2/10 | 1.30 | +113% | 66 of 100 in | moves about 1.3× its index; is up 113% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| RRyder System | Low 2/10 | 1.14 | +65% | 40 of 100 in | moves about 1.1× its index; carries 2.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.7× |
| SNDKSandisk | Low 2/10 | 2.54 | – | 28 of 98 in | moves about 2.5× its index |
| XELXcel Energy | Low 2/10 | 0.11 | +28% | 45 of 100 in | carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.3× |
| BSXBoston Scientific | Low 1/10 | 0.77 | −50% | 26 of 100 in | |
| CMCSAComcast | Low 1/10 | 0.50 | −41% | 21 of 100 in | fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes |
| CPRTCopart | Low 1/10 | 0.89 | −53% | 16 of 100 in | |
| CSCOCisco | Low 1/10 | 0.81 | +122% | 67 of 100 in | is up 122% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| DXCMDexCom | Low 1/10 | 1.06 | +23% | 44 of 100 in | fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes |
| FANGDiamondback Energy | Low 1/10 | 0.31 | +7% | 51 of 100 in | fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes |
| FTNTFortinet | Low 1/10 | 1.03 | +130% | 74 of 100 in | is up 130% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history |
| HONHoneywell | Low 1/10 | 0.76 | +1% | 31 of 100 in | carries 2.5× as much debt as equity |
| LLYEli Lilly | Low 1/10 | 0.56 | +27% | 54 of 100 in | carries 2.1× as much debt as equity |
| MDTMedtronic | Low 1/10 | 0.38 | +11% | 49 of 100 in | |
| MSFTMicrosoft | Low 1/10 | 1.14 | +33% | 65 of 100 in | moves about 1.1× its index |
| NFLXNetflix | Low 1/10 | 1.07 | −3% | 24 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| NVONovo Nordisk | Low 1/10 | 1.06 | −66% | 24 of 100 in | |
| ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line | Low 1/10 | 0.99 | −7% | 43 of 100 in | |
| PDDPDD Holdings | Low 1/10 | 0.81 | −43% | 45 of 100 in | fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes |
| PEPPepsiCo | Low 1/10 | 0.14 | −21% | 28 of 100 in | carries 2.5× as much debt as equity |
| PFEPfizer | Low 1/10 | 0.37 | +11% | 58 of 100 in | operating profit covers interest only 3.8× |
| ROSTRoss Stores | Low 1/10 | 0.66 | +61% | 29 of 100 in | fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes |
| STHHSTMicroelectronics (currency-hedged ETF) | Low 1/10 | 1.46 | – | 34 of 98 in | moves about 1.5× its index |
| TMUST-Mobile US | Low 1/10 | 0.35 | −25% | 19 of 100 in | carries 2.0× as much debt as equity |
| TRNSTranscat | Low 1/10 | 1.00 | −31% | 42 of 100 in | operating profit covers interest only 2.7× |
| TXNTexas Instruments | Low 1/10 | 1.26 | +48% | 65 of 100 in | moves about 1.3× its index |
| AAPLApple | Low 0/10 | 1.04 | +51% | 66 of 100 in | |
| ADPADP | Low 0/10 | 0.52 | +1% | 59 of 100 in | |
| APAAPA Corp | Low 0/10 | 0.35 | +93% | 74 of 100 in | |
| COSTCostco | Low 0/10 | 0.48 | +9% | 54 of 100 in | |
| CSXCSX | Low 0/10 | 0.64 | +41% | 46 of 100 in | |
| CTASCintas | Low 0/10 | 0.70 | +1% | 62 of 100 in | |
| FASTFastenal | Low 0/10 | 0.61 | +40% | 63 of 100 in | |
| GILDGilead Sciences | Low 0/10 | 0.34 | +84% | 56 of 100 in | |
| LINLinde | Low 0/10 | 0.35 | +7% | 59 of 100 in | |
| MDLZMondelez | Low 0/10 | 0.06 | −7% | 46 of 100 in | |
| MNSTMonster Beverage | Low 0/10 | 0.40 | +69% | 43 of 100 in | |
| PAYXPaychex | Low 0/10 | 0.46 | −18% | 37 of 100 in | |
| PCARPaccar | Low 0/10 | 0.75 | +8% | 29 of 100 in | |
| REGNRegeneron | Low 0/10 | 0.63 | −25% | 37 of 100 in | |
| ROPRoper Technologies | Low 0/10 | 0.55 | −32% | 37 of 100 in | |
| TRIThomson Reuters | Low 0/10 | 0.54 | −34% | 52 of 100 in | |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals | Low 0/10 | 0.58 | +1% | 33 of 100 in | |
| WMTWalmart | Low 0/10 | 0.55 | +43% | 55 of 100 in | |
| XOMExxon Mobil | Low 0/10 | 0.01 | +50% | 77 of 100 in |
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.