Oct 13 close Sign in

Market indexes

Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow)

An index is a scoreboard, not something you can buy directly. Investors hold it through an index fund or ETF, which tracks it closely. The plays read the index itself.

Your signal

Hold58 / 100

Hold: 58 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−5% from its 1-year high) scores 84 and lifts it; Plays in (44%) scores 44 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weightDowPointsWeightAdds
Plays in44%444017.6
Off the high−5% from its 1-year high843025.2
Trend+3% vs 200-day523015.6

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for Dow
FactorDowPointsWhat it is
Plays in44%44The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside––How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating––The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E––Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0.
Forward P/E––Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0.
PEG––P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth.
Price to sales––Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher.
Price to book––Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher.
Dividend yield––Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0.
Earnings growth––Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher.
Revenue growth––Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher.
Profit margin––Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher.
Return on equity––Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher.
Debt to equity––Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0.
Off the high−5% from its 1-year high84How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend+3% vs 200-day52How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum+12%48The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure0/10 · low100The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in44 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.03×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+3%). Higher than on 37% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about Dow now.

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on Dow

All 100 plays, by family.

Calls right: how often the play's calls on Dow went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

PlayCallSinceNext moveCalls rightAnnual returnWorst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · dailyINOct 12, 2026 −0.3%Exit below 51,524 (−0.3%)28% 176/626+0.5% / +7.5%−50.6% / −53.8%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weeklyOUTSep 18, 2026 0.0%Enter above 52,345 (+1.3%)27% 29/109+3.6% / +7.5%−20.2% / −53.8%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −1.4%Enter above 52,021 (+0.7%)27% 89/333+3.8% / +7.5%−26.9% / −53.8%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · dailyOUTFeb 27, 2026 +5.5%Enter above 58,717 (+13.6%)24% 8/34+2.2% / +7.5%−8.8% / −53.8%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weeklyINApr 10, 2026 +7.8%Exit below 51,141 (−1.0%)19% 17/88+4.3% / +7.5%−32.2% / −53.8%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weeklyOUTJul 10, 2026 −1.8%Enter above 54,624 (+5.7%)25% 14/56+0.9% / +7.5%−23.2% / −53.8%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-endINApr 30, 2026 +4.1%Exit below 50,422 (−2.4%)32% 12/38+6.3% / +7.5%−21.8% / −53.8%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · dailyINApr 8, 2026 +7.8%Exit below 50,397 (−2.5%)17% 29/166+4.6% / +7.5%−18.4% / −53.8%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · dailyINJul 15, 2025 +17.4%Not on one close33% 9/27+4.8% / +7.5%−39.3% / −53.8%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · dailyINApr 8, 2026 +7.8%Exit below 50,397 (−2.5%)18% 22/123+5.5% / +7.5%−16.0% / −53.8%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weeklyOUTSep 11, 2026 −1.7%Enter above 54,487 (+5.5%)38% 51/133+3.9% / +7.5%−22.1% / −53.8%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −2.1%Enter above 52,028 (+0.7%)25% 198/788−0.2% / +7.5%−57.4% / −53.8%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Exit below 50,770 (−1.7%)39% 105/270+4.4% / +7.5%−32.8% / −53.8%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · dailyINMay 13, 2025 +22.6%Not on one close29% 7/24+4.2% / +7.5%−30.5% / −53.8%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · dailyOUTSep 10, 2026 −0.8%Enter above 56,740 (+9.8%)30% 42/139+3.0% / +7.5%−17.3% / −53.8%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · dailyOUTSep 15, 2026 −0.8%Enter above 53,487 (+3.5%)32% 34/105+4.5% / +7.5%−22.5% / −53.8%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −1.4%Enter above 52,365 (+1.3%)41% 73/177+4.4% / +7.5%−26.2% / −53.8%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · dailyOUTSep 11, 2026 −1.7%Not on one close39% 121/309+2.2% / +7.5%−21.6% / −53.8%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Exit below 50,970 (−1.4%)35% 183/516+2.6% / +7.5%−32.9% / −53.8%
AroonTushar S. Chande · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −2.1%Enter above 52,751 (+2.1%)35% 67/189+3.5% / +7.5%−20.6% / −53.8%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINOct 5, 2026 +0.8%Exit below 50,997 (−1.3%)38% 201/535+2.5% / +7.5%−37.6% / −53.8%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTJul 20, 2026 −0.3%Enter above 60,751 (+17.6%)30% 46/151+1.7% / +7.5%−12.8% / −53.8%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −1.4%Enter above 54,461 (+5.4%)31% 53/171+3.8% / +7.5%−28.1% / −53.8%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weeklyOUTSep 18, 2026 0.0%Enter above 53,224 (+3.0%)33% 38/115+4.1% / +7.5%−33.2% / −53.8%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 −2.1%Enter above 53,505 (+3.6%)33% 70/213+2.7% / +7.5%−34.3% / −53.8%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · dailyINOct 12, 2026 −0.3%Not on one close38% 91/238+2.5% / +7.5%−49.3% / −53.8%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −1.4%Enter above 54,078 (+4.7%)33% 43/129+4.2% / +7.5%−23.8% / −53.8%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · dailyOUTSep 18, 2026 0.0%Enter above 57,893 (+12.0%)29% 28/97+4.8% / +7.5%−20.8% / −53.8%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · dailyOUTJul 10, 2026 −1.8%Not on one close32% 72/223+1.6% / +7.5%−24.7% / −53.8%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTOct 3, 2025 +10.5%Not on one close59% 13/22+2.0% / +7.5%−4.9% / −53.8%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −1.4%Enter above 52,319 (+1.3%)32% 45/139+3.9% / +7.5%−25.0% / −53.8%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTAug 18, 2026 −3.1%Enter above 54,744 (+5.9%)28% 53/187+0.5% / +7.5%−17.7% / −53.8%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −1.4%Enter above 54,744 (+5.9%)23% 28/123+1.7% / +7.5%−20.9% / −53.8%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTAug 20, 2026 −2.1%Enter above 54,349 (+5.2%)26% 32/123+2.0% / +7.5%−21.2% / −53.8%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −1.4%Not on one close26% 33/126+0.9% / +7.5%−24.9% / −53.8%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · dailyOUTAug 20, 2026 −2.1%Enter above 52,912 (+2.4%)32% 57/177+2.0% / +7.5%−13.5% / −53.8%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTAug 20, 2026 −2.1%Enter above 52,216 (+1.1%)32% 64/197+1.8% / +7.5%−19.7% / −53.8%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · dailyOUTAug 20, 2026 −2.1%Enter above 52,421 (+1.5%)39% 64/165+5.4% / +7.5%−23.5% / −53.8%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTAug 20, 2026 −2.1%Enter above 52,389 (+1.4%)39% 74/189+3.8% / +7.5%−34.8% / −53.8%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · dailyINMay 8, 2025 +24.9%Exit below 44,946 (−13.0%)43% 12/28+5.7% / +7.5%−30.7% / −53.8%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −3.3%Enter above 52,007 (+0.7%)27% 99/365+2.1% / +7.5%−33.7% / −53.8%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · dailyOUTAug 6, 2026 −4.1%Not on one close28% 64/228+1.4% / +7.5%−17.5% / −53.8%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · dailyOUTAug 18, 2026 −3.1%Enter above 52,388 (+1.4%)32% 46/142+1.5% / +7.5%−18.7% / −53.8%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Enter above 51,928 (+0.5%)32% 251/776−0.1% / +7.5%−44.2% / −53.8%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTFeb 19, 2026 +4.6%Enter above 52,216 (+1.1%)17% 6/36+0.9% / +7.5%−11.9% / −53.8%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-endINDec 29, 2023 +37.1%Exit below 49,319 (−4.5%)35% 12/34+5.3% / +7.5%−26.1% / −53.8%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-endINDec 29, 2023 +37.1%Not on one close61% 17/28+6.6% / +7.5%−37.1% / −53.8%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-endOUTNov 30, 2018 +102.3%Enter above 54,839 (+6.1%)50% 10/20+3.9% / +7.6%−16.0% / −53.8%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTSep 22, 2026 −0.4%Buy 52,199–59,420 (+1.0%)18% 38/213+2.7% / +7.5%−22.3% / −53.8%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-endINJan 31, 2023 +51.6%Exit below 46,197 (−10.6%)67% 4/6+6.6% / +7.5%−37.1% / −53.8%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weeklyOUTAug 7, 2026 −4.4%Enter above 53,739 (+4.0%)32% 34/106+1.0% / +7.5%−24.9% / −53.8%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · dailyINOct 6, 2026 +0.3%Exit below 50,026 (−3.2%)36% 162/450+5.0% / +7.5%−24.8% / −53.8%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · dailyINOct 6, 2026 +0.3%Exit below 51,535 (−0.3%)31% 234/758+0.9% / +7.5%−44.7% / −53.8%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · dailyINOct 8, 2026 +0.9%Exit below 47,248 (−8.6%)39% 125/324+3.4% / +7.5%−31.7% / −53.8%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-endINMar 31, 2023 +55.3%Not on one close44% 7/16+7.3% / +7.5%−37.1% / −53.8%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · dailyOUTAug 11, 2026 −3.9%Enter above 52,066 (+0.8%)28% 197/698−0.2% / +7.5%−41.0% / −53.8%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Exit below 48,727 (−5.7%)36% 102/286+2.0% / +7.5%−30.6% / −53.8%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −1.4%Enter above 54,665 (+5.8%)31% 53/169+3.6% / +7.5%−27.9% / −53.8%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 +1.5%Enter above 50,905 (−1.5%)37% 31/83+4.3% / +7.5%−23.5% / −53.8%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-endINDec 29, 2023 +37.1%Not on one close50% 12/24+5.1% / +7.4%−37.1% / −53.8%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · dailyINDec 29, 2023 +37.1%Not on one close59% 19/32+5.8% / +7.5%−37.1% / −53.8%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · dailyINOct 12, 2026 −0.3%Exit below 50,743 (−1.8%)37% 126/344+4.5% / +7.5%−26.3% / −53.8%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTJun 3, 2026 +1.9%Not on one close73% 32/44+5.5% / +7.5%−52.3% / −53.8%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTOct 2, 2026 +1.0%Not on one close63% 239/378+3.5% / +7.5%−13.2% / −53.8%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 +0.3%Buy 50,397–51,180 (−0.9%)65% 291/447+5.3% / +7.5%−14.3% / −53.8%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 +0.0%Buy below 50,761 (−1.8%)58% 114/198+3.7% / +7.5%−33.5% / −53.8%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · dailyINSep 14, 2026 −1.4%Not on one close63% 99/157+5.8% / +7.5%−31.4% / −53.8%
Williams %RLarry Williams · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Not on one close63% 180/284+4.3% / +7.5%−54.4% / −53.8%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · dailyINAug 20, 2026 −2.1%Not on one close65% 46/71+3.2% / +7.5%−53.8% / −53.8%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · dailyINNov 22, 2004 +392.6%Sell above 121,810 (+135.7%)–+7.5% / +7.5%−53.8% / −53.8%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · dailyOUTJun 16, 2020 +96.5%Buy below 36,917 (−28.6%)67% 4/6+2.1% / +7.5%−10.6% / −53.8%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINAug 25, 2026 −3.6%Not on one close48% 143/300+2.7% / +7.5%−60.6% / −53.8%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +1.0%Not on one close55% 243/438+0.9% / +7.5%−54.3% / −53.8%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Sell above 51,670 (0.0%)60% 1029/1711+5.0% / +7.5%−17.6% / −53.8%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyINSep 2, 2026 −2.6%Sell above 51,892 (+0.4%)58% 56/97+4.5% / +7.5%−14.5% / −53.8%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +1.0%Exit below 51,117 (−1.1%)38% 406/1075+0.9% / +7.5%−50.9% / −53.8%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-endINAug 31, 2026 −2.9%Sell above 51,933 (+0.5%)52% 69/132+5.1% / +7.5%−41.3% / −53.8%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · dailyINOct 8, 2026 +0.9%Not on one close27% 211/784+1.2% / +7.5%−39.6% / −53.8%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · dailyOUTAug 12, 2026 −3.9%Not on one close35% 65/187+2.2% / +7.5%−39.1% / −53.8%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · dailyINSep 25, 2026 −0.3%Not on one close48% 16/33+2.1% / +7.5%−46.4% / −53.8%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · dailyINJan 29, 2015 +196.7%Not on one close23% 7/30+7.5% / +7.5%−37.1% / −53.8%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · dailyINOct 9, 2026 +0.0%Exit below 51,598 (−0.1%)28% 231/814+0.9% / +7.5%−48.0% / −53.8%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Exit below 51,083 (−1.1%)34% 119/348+3.3% / +7.5%−30.4% / −53.8%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · dailyINOct 8, 2026 +0.9%Exit below 51,670 (0.0%)33% 190/572−1.4% / +7.5%−57.0% / −53.8%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · dailyINApr 30, 2026 +4.1%Not on one close37% 32/86+5.3% / +7.5%−39.8% / −53.8%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · dailyINOct 5, 2026 +0.8%Not on one close34% 316/921+0.5% / +7.5%−55.1% / −53.8%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · dailyOUTJul 16, 2026 −1.7%Not on one close50% 52/104+2.9% / +7.5%−56.3% / −53.8%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · dailyOUTSep 24, 2026 +0.6%Not on one close30% 33/110+1.9% / +7.5%−25.3% / −53.8%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTMar 18, 2026 +11.8%Not on one close44% 28/64+1.9% / +7.5%−9.0% / −53.8%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 30, 2026 +4.1%Buys Oct 3051% 22/43+5.4% / +7.5%−37.1% / −53.8%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINOct 5, 2026 +0.8%Window opens Apr 150% 22/44+5.5% / +7.5%−38.1% / −53.8%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · dailyOUTMay 5, 2026 +4.8%Window opens Oct 1651% 22/43+5.5% / +7.5%−37.1% / −53.8%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTJan 5, 2026 +5.5%Buys Dec 2343% 19/44+2.1% / +7.5%−6.6% / −53.8%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 +0.8%Buys Oct 2947% 247/526+1.7% / +7.5%−18.3% / −53.8%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINSep 30, 2026 +1.5%Sells Jun 3055% 6/11+3.8% / +7.5%−18.8% / −53.8%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −3.3%Buys Nov 2446% 185/400+1.7% / +7.5%−7.1% / −53.8%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-endINDec 30, 2022 +55.9%Not on one close30% 6/20+4.9% / +7.5%−26.9% / −53.8%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyINOct 12, 2026 −0.3%Sells Oct 1652% 1179/2284+2.0% / +7.5%−43.3% / −53.8%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 +0.4%Buys Oct 2745% 155/348+2.1% / +7.5%−5.2% / −53.8%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +1.0%Sells Oct 1649% 266/541+3.2% / +7.5%−32.7% / −53.8%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmarkINJan 3, 2005Always in–+7.5%−53.8%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works
ExposureLow0 of 10 points
  • Market swings0/3
  • Past crashes0/2
  • Debt0/3
  • Run-up0/2

Nothing on the checklist stands out.

Past crashes, peak to low

Dot-com bust Mar 2000 to Oct 2002 · back to its old high Feb 2006

Dow−34%
S&P 500−49%

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 · back to its old high Mar 2013

Dow−54%
S&P 500−57%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Nov 2020

Dow−37%
S&P 500−34%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Sep 2022 · back to its old high Dec 2023

Dow−21%
S&P 500−25%
  • Beta0.80Moves about 0.8× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
  • Downside capture114%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 114% as much on average.
  • Two-year change+21%
  • From 52-week high−5%

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

Who would feel a crash first

The U.S. stocks Be The Puck covers, ranked by crash exposure. Be The Puck covers a sample of names, not the full index.

StockExposureBeta2-yr changePlays inWhy
RKLBRocket LabVery high 10/102.51+562%26 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 2.7× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 562% in
OPTTOcean Power TechnologiesVery high 9/1016.32+380%30 of 100 inmoves about 16.3× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 380% in
CARAvis BudgetVery high 8/101.85+30%22 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit
CRWDCrowdStrikeVery high 8/101.90+226%62 of 100 inmoves about 1.9× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 226% in
EOSEEos EnergyVery high 8/102.52−26%15 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 3.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit
FLNCFluence EnergyVery high 8/102.08−69%24 of 100 inmoves about 2.1× its index; fell about 3.2× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
GPROGoProVery high 8/102.77−9%32 of 100 inmoves about 2.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
LITELumentumVery high 8/102.32+1,348%55 of 100 inmoves about 2.3× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest; is up 1348% in
MARAMARA HoldingsVery high 8/102.01−43%14 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 2.6× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
RIOTRiot PlatformsVery high 8/102.37+98%19 of 100 inmoves about 2.4× its index; fell about 2.4× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
AMDAMDVery high 7/102.04+261%57 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 261% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
INTCIntelVery high 7/102.00+336%34 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 2.4×; is up 336% in t
MSTRStrategy (MicroStrategy)Very high 7/101.50−28%40 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
MUMicronVery high 7/102.52+796%40 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 796% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
QUTXQuantum XVery high 7/10−6.16+800%20 of 100 infell about 2.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit doesn't cover its interest;
WSCWillScotVery high 7/101.76−51%25 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 4.4× as much debt as equity; operating profit cover
APPAppLovinHigh 6/103.12+85%16 of 100 inmoves about 3.1× its index; fell about 3.2× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.6× as much debt as equity
AXONAxon EnterpriseHigh 6/101.52−5%20 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 1.2×
BTDRBitdeer TechnologiesHigh 6/102.41+22%12 of 100 inmoves about 2.4× its index; carries 2.2× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 1.7×
CRWVCoreWeaveHigh 6/101.71–11 of 98 inmoves about 1.7× its index; carries 15.5× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 0.0×
HTZHertzHigh 6/101.20−37%34 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity); operating profit
LRCXLam ResearchHigh 6/102.04+269%43 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 269% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
NPCENeuroPaceHigh 6/100.94+92%26 of 100 infell about 2.8× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 3.7× as much debt as equity; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
PLTRPalantirHigh 6/102.48+380%68 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 2.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 380% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
SBUXStarbucksHigh 6/101.13+1%28 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity)
STXSeagate TechnologyHigh 6/101.99+601%29 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.8× as much debt as equity; is up 601% in two year
TERTeradyneHigh 6/101.70+190%45 of 100 inmoves about 1.7× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 190% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
WDCWestern DigitalHigh 6/102.19+680%28 of 100 inmoves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 680% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
ASMLASML HoldingHigh 5/101.52+108%46 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 108% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
BKNGBooking HoldingsHigh 5/101.14−7%23 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity)
HOLOMicroCloud HologramHigh 5/102.89−99%12 of 100 inmoves about 2.9× its index; fell about 3.3× as far as its index in past crashes
LSCCLattice SemiconductorHigh 5/102.03+133%47 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 3.7×; is up 133% in t
MCHPMicrochip TechnologyHigh 5/102.00+0%31 of 100 inmoves about 2.0× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit covers interest only 2.3×
MRVLMarvell TechnologyHigh 5/102.20+265%63 of 100 inmoves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 265% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
NBISNebius GroupHigh 5/102.73–30 of 98 inmoves about 2.7× its index; carries 2.2× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 1.2×
NXPINXP SemiconductorsHigh 5/101.53−1%23 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes
PRSOPerasoHigh 5/100.80−77%16 of 100 infell about 2.0× as far as its index in past crashes; operating profit doesn't cover its interest
TSLATeslaHigh 5/101.82+72%45 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index; fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes
ALABAstera LabsModerate 4/102.78+388%46 of 99 inmoves about 2.8× its index; is up 388% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
ALNYAlnylam PharmaceuticalsModerate 4/100.96−21%13 of 100 incarries 3.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.3×
AMATApplied MaterialsModerate 4/101.69+130%42 of 100 inmoves about 1.7× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 130% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
AVGOBroadcomModerate 4/102.49+100%36 of 100 inmoves about 2.5× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 100% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
CEGConstellation EnergyModerate 4/101.51+12%54 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; carries 1.7× as much debt as equity
DASHDoorDashModerate 4/101.77+29%41 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index; fell about 2.7× as far as its index in past crashes
DDOGDatadogModerate 4/101.39+118%68 of 100 inmoves about 1.4× its index; fell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
JPMJPMorgan ChaseModerate 4/101.02+55%37 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 3.7× as much debt as equity
KLACKLAModerate 4/101.86+132%42 of 100 inmoves about 1.9× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 132% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about h
MARMarriottModerate 4/100.96+44%67 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; owes more than it owns (negative equity)
METAMeta PlatformsModerate 4/101.47+30%57 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes
NAMMNamib MineralsModerate 4/10−2.48–19 of 98 inowes more than it owns (negative equity)
NVDANvidiaModerate 4/102.15+70%54 of 100 inmoves about 2.1× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes
SUPXSuperX AI TechnologyModerate 4/100.03+43%19 of 99 inoperating profit doesn't cover its interest
URIUnited RentalsModerate 4/101.41+32%61 of 100 inmoves about 1.4× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.7× as much debt as equity
ABNBAirbnbModerate 3/101.29+23%48 of 100 inmoves about 1.3× its index; fell about 1.9× as far as its index in past crashes
AMGNAmgenModerate 3/100.41+34%62 of 100 incarries 6.6× as much debt as equity
AMZNAmazonModerate 3/101.47+37%61 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes
ARMArm HoldingsModerate 3/102.82+69%30 of 100 inmoves about 2.8× its index
CARRCarrier GlobalModerate 3/101.23−31%24 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
FCFranklin CoveyModerate 3/101.17−54%46 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
ISRGIntuitive SurgicalModerate 3/101.22−13%54 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes
MELIMercadoLibreModerate 3/101.02−10%48 of 100 infell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 2.0× as much debt as equity
MPWRMonolithic Power SystemsModerate 3/102.20+43%48 of 100 inmoves about 2.2× its index; fell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes
ORLYO'Reilly AutomotiveModerate 3/100.21+9%34 of 100 inowes more than it owns (negative equity)
PYPLPayPalModerate 3/101.13−29%56 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index; fell about 1.7× as far as its index in past crashes
QCOMQualcommModerate 3/101.79+9%32 of 100 inmoves about 1.8× its index
SNPSSynopsysModerate 3/101.61−8%54 of 100 inmoves about 1.6× its index
SPCXSpaceXModerate 3/10––35 of 59 inoperating profit doesn't cover its interest
STMSTMicroelectronicsModerate 3/101.60+81%36 of 100 inmoves about 1.6× its index; fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes
TTWOTake-Two InteractiveModerate 3/100.86+29%22 of 100 inoperating profit doesn't cover its interest
WDAYWorkdayModerate 3/101.08−23%41 of 100 infell about 1.6× as far as its index in past crashes
ADBEAdobeLow 2/101.05−52%25 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
ADIAnalog DevicesLow 2/101.56+83%64 of 100 inmoves about 1.6× its index
ADSKAutodeskLow 2/101.05−18%48 of 100 infell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes
AEPAmerican Electric PowerLow 2/10−0.03+37%51 of 100 incarries 1.7× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.8×
BKRBaker HughesLow 2/100.64+55%30 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes
CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific PartnersLow 2/100.41+43%57 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes; carries 1.6× as much debt as equity
CDNSCadence Design SystemsLow 2/101.49+18%52 of 100 inmoves about 1.5× its index; fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes
EIXEdison InternationalLow 2/100.20−26%38 of 100 incarries 2.5× as much debt as equity
EXCExelonLow 2/10−0.09+15%38 of 100 incarries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.5×
FERFerrovialLow 2/100.70+28%23 of 100 incarries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 3.4×
FLXSFlexsteel IndustriesLow 2/100.73+118%62 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
GEHCGE HealthCareLow 2/101.25−24%46 of 100 inmoves about 1.3× its index
GOOGLAlphabetLow 2/101.21+118%61 of 100 inmoves about 1.2× its index; is up 118% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
HONAHoneywell AerospaceLow 2/10––21 of 59 incarries 1.9× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 3.9×
IDXXIDEXX LaboratoriesLow 2/101.01+9%31 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
INTUIntuitLow 2/100.68−50%33 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes
KDPKeurig Dr PepperLow 2/100.18−5%67 of 100 in
PANWPalo Alto NetworksLow 2/101.30+113%66 of 100 inmoves about 1.3× its index; is up 113% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
RRyder SystemLow 2/101.14+65%40 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index; carries 2.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.7×
SNDKSandiskLow 2/102.54–28 of 98 inmoves about 2.5× its index
XELXcel EnergyLow 2/100.11+28%45 of 100 incarries 1.8× as much debt as equity; operating profit covers interest only 2.3×
BSXBoston ScientificLow 1/100.77−50%26 of 100 in
CMCSAComcastLow 1/100.50−41%21 of 100 infell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes
CPRTCopartLow 1/100.89−53%16 of 100 in
CSCOCiscoLow 1/100.81+122%67 of 100 inis up 122% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
DXCMDexComLow 1/101.06+23%44 of 100 infell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes
FANGDiamondback EnergyLow 1/100.31+7%51 of 100 infell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes
FTNTFortinetLow 1/101.03+130%74 of 100 inis up 130% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history
HONHoneywellLow 1/100.76+1%31 of 100 incarries 2.5× as much debt as equity
LLYEli LillyLow 1/100.56+27%54 of 100 incarries 2.1× as much debt as equity
MDTMedtronicLow 1/100.38+11%49 of 100 in
MSFTMicrosoftLow 1/101.14+33%65 of 100 inmoves about 1.1× its index
NFLXNetflixLow 1/101.07−3%24 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
NVONovo NordiskLow 1/101.06−66%24 of 100 in
ODFLOld Dominion Freight LineLow 1/100.99−7%43 of 100 in
PDDPDD HoldingsLow 1/100.81−43%45 of 100 infell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes
PEPPepsiCoLow 1/100.14−21%28 of 100 incarries 2.5× as much debt as equity
PFEPfizerLow 1/100.37+11%58 of 100 inoperating profit covers interest only 3.8×
ROSTRoss StoresLow 1/100.66+61%29 of 100 infell about 1.1× as far as its index in past crashes
STHHSTMicroelectronics (currency-hedged ETF)Low 1/101.46–34 of 98 inmoves about 1.5× its index
TMUST-Mobile USLow 1/100.35−25%19 of 100 incarries 2.0× as much debt as equity
TRNSTranscatLow 1/101.00−31%42 of 100 inoperating profit covers interest only 2.7×
TXNTexas InstrumentsLow 1/101.26+48%65 of 100 inmoves about 1.3× its index
AAPLAppleLow 0/101.04+51%66 of 100 in
ADPADPLow 0/100.52+1%59 of 100 in
APAAPA CorpLow 0/100.35+93%74 of 100 in
COSTCostcoLow 0/100.48+9%54 of 100 in
CSXCSXLow 0/100.64+41%46 of 100 in
CTASCintasLow 0/100.70+1%62 of 100 in
FASTFastenalLow 0/100.61+40%63 of 100 in
GILDGilead SciencesLow 0/100.34+84%56 of 100 in
LINLindeLow 0/100.35+7%59 of 100 in
MDLZMondelezLow 0/100.06−7%46 of 100 in
MNSTMonster BeverageLow 0/100.40+69%43 of 100 in
PAYXPaychexLow 0/100.46−18%37 of 100 in
PCARPaccarLow 0/100.75+8%29 of 100 in
REGNRegeneronLow 0/100.63−25%37 of 100 in
ROPRoper TechnologiesLow 0/100.55−32%37 of 100 in
TRIThomson ReutersLow 0/100.54−34%52 of 100 in
VRTXVertex PharmaceuticalsLow 0/100.58+1%33 of 100 in
WMTWalmartLow 0/100.55+43%55 of 100 in
XOMExxon MobilLow 0/100.01+50%77 of 100 in

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