Author of 'The IBS Effect' paper
Alexander S. Pagonidis
Alexander Soffronow Pagonidis wrote 'The IBS Effect: Mean Reversion in Equity ETFs', listed among the 2014 entries for NAAIM's Founders Award for Advances in Active Investment Management. Later academic work on internal bar strength cites his paper as the source of the 0.2 and 0.8 thresholds.
What they argue
- Where a day's close sits within its high-low range predicts the next day's return for equity ETFs.
- Closes in the bottom fifth of the range (IBS below 0.2) tend to be followed by a rise, and closes in the top fifth (above 0.8) by a fall.
Sources
NAAIM: Founders Award paper list 2009-2018arXiv: Using Internal Bar Strength as a Key Indicator for Trading Country ETFs (Pandey & Joshi, 2023)
Summaries are Be The Puck's paraphrase of public material. Be The Puck has no affiliation with the people listed.
Books and papers
- The IBS Effect: Mean Reversion in Equity ETFs (NAAIM Founders Award entry) (2014)
Internal bar strength below 0.2
Rule and full recordMean reversion · daily
Internal bar strength is where the close lands in the day's range. A close near the low has tended to bounce the next day, so buy those closes and hold for one day.
In right now61 of 377As of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
Best risk-adjusted results against buy and hold: