Oct 13 close Sign in

Metals & mining

Lundin Gold (LUG)

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Hold50 / 100

Hold: 50 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Trend (+4% vs 200-day) scores 57 and lifts it; Off the high (−17% from its 1-year high) scores 42 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weightLUGPointsWeightAdds
Plays in51%514020.4
Off the high−17% from its 1-year high423012.6
Trend+4% vs 200-day573017.1
Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for LUG
FactorLUGPointsWhat it is
Plays in51%51The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside+2% · 12 analysts32How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating2.5 · hold25The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E17.9×72Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E15.6×50Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG––P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth.
Price to sales8.0×20Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book29.8×4Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield6.2%96Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth+12%40Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth+6%26Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin46%93Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity101%98Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity0.05×87Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high−17% from its 1-year high42How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend+4% vs 200-day57How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum+15%51The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure6/10 · high40The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on LUG

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in51 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureHigh6 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.04×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+4%). Higher than on 53% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about LUG now.

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved LUG lately

Its biggest move against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on LUG

All 100 plays, by family.

Calls right: how often the play's calls on LUG went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

PlayCallSinceNext moveCalls rightAnnual returnWorst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$90.13 (−5.9%)18% 132/728−24.8% / +12.3%−100.0% / −94.7%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weeklyINAug 7, 2026 +5.7%Exit below C$85.78 (−10.4%)19% 28/144+1.0% / +12.3%−91.6% / −94.7%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$89.93 (−6.1%)15% 69/453−13.5% / +12.3%−99.6% / −94.7%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · dailyOUTApr 21, 2026 +0.9%Not on one close13% 23/181−1.6% / +12.3%−90.4% / −94.7%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weeklyOUTApr 24, 2026 +3.2%Enter above C$125.51 (+31.1%)18% 18/99+1.0% / +12.3%−92.5% / −94.7%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weeklyOUTApr 24, 2026 +3.2%Enter above C$101.84 (+6.4%)17% 18/103−1.7% / +12.3%−96.7% / −94.7%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 +9.7%Enter above C$89.91 (−6.1%)30% 16/53+8.1% / +12.3%−77.7% / −94.7%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$91.56 (−4.4%)6% 14/254−8.1% / +12.3%−99.2% / −94.7%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$43.56 (−54.5%)24% 9/38+5.7% / +12.3%−90.6% / −94.7%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 +4.0%Enter above C$328.66 (+243.3%)10% 14/139−1.2% / +12.3%−96.3% / −94.7%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weeklyOUTOct 2, 2026 +8.8%Enter above C$102.76 (+7.3%)35% 53/152+3.6% / +12.3%−70.2% / −94.7%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$91.20 (−4.7%)18% 154/846−32.2% / +12.3%−100.0% / −94.7%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 +0.7%Enter above C$109.25 (+14.1%)31% 85/275−7.1% / +12.3%−96.8% / −94.7%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · dailyINAug 6, 2026 +12.2%Not on one close18% 7/40+2.4% / +11.1%−94.1% / −94.7%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 +11.4%Enter above C$95.73 (+0.0%)18% 29/160−4.0% / +12.3%−92.9% / −94.7%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · dailyOUTOct 1, 2026 +10.4%Not on one close20% 29/144−0.4% / +12.3%−88.9% / −94.7%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$84.55 (−11.7%)22% 47/209−12.6% / +12.3%−99.3% / −94.7%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · dailyOUTSep 15, 2026 +5.0%Not on one close35% 126/360−2.9% / +12.3%−92.4% / −94.7%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$88.27 (−7.8%)30% 163/548+2.5% / +11.6%−84.6% / −94.7%
AroonTushar S. Chande · dailyOUTSep 24, 2026 +5.2%Enter above C$98.63 (+3.0%)29% 67/232+2.6% / +12.3%−91.1% / −94.7%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$84.52 (−11.7%)32% 138/438−10.9% / +12.3%−98.6% / −94.7%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 +0.7%Not on one close26% 43/166−3.5% / +12.3%−90.6% / −94.7%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · dailyOUTSep 25, 2026 +4.5%Enter above C$94.72 (−1.1%)21% 45/216−4.2% / +12.3%−93.6% / −94.7%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weeklyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$91.99 (−3.9%)27% 95/350−15.8% / +12.3%−98.9% / −94.7%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Exit below C$49.28 (−48.5%)25% 64/253−1.6% / +12.3%−94.5% / −94.7%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · dailyOUTJul 16, 2026 +29.2%Enter above C$95.88 (+0.2%)39% 77/197+6.6% / +12.3%−81.7% / −94.7%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 +11.4%Enter above C$91.82 (−4.1%)21% 42/202−4.1% / +12.3%−92.2% / −94.7%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$82.78 (−13.5%)20% 24/121+3.4% / +12.3%−80.0% / −94.7%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · dailyOUTSep 11, 2026 +2.9%Not on one close28% 58/208−2.2% / +12.3%−82.0% / −94.7%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTOct 8, 2025 +10.5%Not on one close35% 25/72+0.3% / +12.3%−43.3% / −94.7%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$83.74 (−12.5%)32% 39/121+5.1% / +12.3%−81.1% / −94.7%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$88.69 (−7.4%)29% 38/131+2.3% / +12.3%−79.4% / −94.7%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 +11.4%Enter above C$105.68 (+10.4%)26% 23/90+1.1% / +12.3%−83.2% / −94.7%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTMar 13, 2026 +0.6%Enter above C$105.32 (+10.0%)24% 25/104−2.7% / +12.3%−89.6% / −94.7%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · dailyOUTSep 15, 2026 +5.0%Not on one close37% 50/135+1.7% / +12.3%−78.1% / −94.7%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 +4.1%Enter above C$98.17 (+2.5%)26% 49/190−10.3% / +12.3%−97.5% / −94.7%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 +4.1%Enter above C$97.69 (+2.0%)25% 53/211−5.9% / +12.3%−96.2% / −94.7%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$86.72 (−9.4%)24% 56/229−12.2% / +12.3%−98.4% / −94.7%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$84.42 (−11.8%)25% 64/258−9.5% / +12.3%−98.9% / −94.7%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Exit below C$82.76 (−13.5%)29% 64/218−3.2% / +12.3%−94.6% / −94.7%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$89.94 (−6.0%)19% 76/403−15.4% / +12.3%−99.8% / −94.7%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · dailyOUTAug 28, 2026 −3.0%Not on one close22% 50/228−10.5% / +12.3%−96.4% / −94.7%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · dailyOUTAug 17, 2026 +7.1%Not on one close35% 33/95+0.3% / +12.3%−67.3% / −94.7%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$86.54 (−9.6%)27% 153/558−10.9% / +12.3%−98.9% / −94.7%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTMay 12, 2025 +97.9%Not on one close18% 6/34−1.7% / +12.3%−52.2% / −94.7%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-endINNov 30, 2022 +802.7%Exit below C$88.16 (−7.9%)47% 17/36+15.3% / +13.4%−77.1% / −94.7%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-endINDec 30, 2022 +805.5%Not on one close44% 14/32+9.4% / +13.4%−94.0% / −94.7%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 +9.7%Enter above C$98.02 (+2.4%)61% 20/33+14.0% / +13.4%−77.2% / −94.7%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · dailyINAug 26, 2026 −7.6%Exit below C$85.05 (−11.2%)15% 16/107+2.1% / +12.3%−66.8% / −94.7%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-endOUTMar 31, 2026 −1.4%Enter above C$110.02 (+14.9%)23% 6/26+6.1% / +12.3%−70.2% / −94.7%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weeklyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$89.64 (−6.4%)19% 26/136−2.6% / +12.3%−95.9% / −94.7%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$81.89 (−14.5%)26% 122/470−13.7% / +12.3%−98.8% / −94.7%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$90.12 (−5.9%)22% 175/804−27.6% / +12.3%−100.0% / −94.7%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −2.6%Enter above C$94.65 (−1.1%)32% 107/333+0.1% / +12.3%−89.9% / −94.7%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-endINOct 31, 2022 +1,117.4%Not on one close42% 8/19+9.4% / +6.9%−87.0% / −94.7%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$93.32 (−2.5%)29% 148/506−8.7% / +11.5%−96.7% / −94.7%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −0.4%Enter above C$115.84 (+21.0%)34% 92/267−1.4% / +12.3%−94.8% / −94.7%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · dailyOUTSep 25, 2026 +4.5%Enter above C$95.51 (−0.2%)22% 46/206−4.2% / +12.3%−93.8% / −94.7%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-endOUTSep 30, 2026 +9.7%Enter above C$84.41 (−11.8%)30% 24/81+13.8% / +13.4%−71.9% / −94.7%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-endINDec 30, 2022 +805.5%Not on one close45% 13/29+9.5% / +8.9%−86.2% / −94.7%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · dailyINDec 30, 2022 +805.5%Not on one close32% 6/19+10.0% / +13.4%−69.6% / −94.7%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −0.4%Enter above C$90.78 (−5.2%)27% 95/355−11.0% / +12.3%−98.2% / −94.7%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTNov 16, 2022 +891.7%Not on one close44% 15/34−2.1% / +12.3%−92.6% / −94.7%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTSep 3, 2026 −4.3%Not on one close61% 159/262+14.8% / +12.3%−29.6% / −94.7%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTSep 22, 2026 +0.3%Not on one close65% 247/380+25.7% / +12.3%−31.6% / −94.7%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Buy below C$82.00 (−14.3%)71% 130/182+13.0% / +12.3%−85.9% / −94.7%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · dailyINSep 18, 2026 +4.3%Not on one close60% 103/172+8.1% / +11.2%−93.4% / −94.7%
Williams %RLarry Williams · dailyINSep 18, 2026 +4.3%Exit below C$94.75 (−1.0%)51% 139/275−3.4% / +11.4%−98.9% / −94.7%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · dailyINApr 30, 2026 +14.9%Not on one close59% 33/56+4.9% / +12.3%−92.0% / −94.7%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · dailyINNov 22, 2004 +1,565.4%Sell above C$221.30 (+131.2%)–+12.3% / +12.3%−94.7% / −94.7%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · dailyOUTSep 2, 2026 −0.2%Buy below C$57.54 (−39.9%)69% 33/48+6.7% / +12.3%−50.2% / −94.7%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINSep 22, 2026 +0.3%Not on one close37% 128/344−16.7% / +12.3%−99.6% / −94.7%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyINSep 2, 2026 −0.2%Exit below C$93.74 (−2.1%)44% 190/435+0.5% / +12.3%−94.9% / −94.7%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · dailyOUTOct 1, 2026 +10.4%Buy below C$95.73 (0.0%)56% 957/1696+44.7% / +12.3%−52.7% / −94.7%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTApr 8, 2026 −6.9%Not on one close59% 39/66+8.2% / +12.3%−39.4% / −94.7%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINOct 8, 2026 +10.4%Not on one close31% 306/978−12.7% / +12.3%−99.6% / −94.7%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-endINSep 30, 2026 +9.7%Sell above C$89.00 (−7.0%)61% 83/137+7.1% / +12.3%−95.6% / −94.7%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · dailyINOct 8, 2026 +10.4%Exit below C$95.73 (0.0%)27% 145/534+2.6% / +12.3%−95.1% / −94.7%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · dailyINOct 8, 2026 +10.4%Not on one close40% 82/204+8.8% / +12.3%−81.2% / −94.7%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · dailyOUTAug 10, 2026 +6.2%Not on one close37% 39/106−9.9% / +12.3%−97.6% / −94.7%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · dailyINNov 7, 2024 +253.2%Exit below C$91.95 (−3.9%)32% 35/111+5.9% / +12.4%−86.1% / −94.7%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Exit below C$85.31 (−10.9%)25% 139/560−12.2% / +12.3%−98.7% / −94.7%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Exit below C$79.15 (−17.3%)26% 114/436−10.2% / +17.3%−98.1% / −94.7%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · dailyINOct 6, 2026 +10.5%Not on one close34% 158/462−3.8% / +12.3%−94.8% / −94.7%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Not on one close34% 40/119+14.9% / +12.8%−57.7% / −94.7%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Not on one close38% 246/640+8.8% / +12.3%−72.9% / −94.7%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · dailyOUTAug 12, 2026 +5.7%Not on one close52% 40/77−0.3% / +12.3%−98.0% / −94.7%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · dailyOUTApr 21, 2026 +0.9%Not on one close34% 20/58+6.1% / +12.3%−49.1% / −94.7%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTFeb 17, 2026 +0.6%Not on one close39% 15/38−0.4% / +12.3%−61.1% / −94.7%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 30, 2026 +14.9%Buys Oct 3051% 22/43+14.1% / +12.3%−56.6% / −94.7%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −0.1%Window opens Apr 155% 24/44+10.2% / +12.3%−81.8% / −94.7%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · dailyOUTApr 22, 2026 −1.1%Window opens Oct 1644% 19/43+11.9% / +12.3%−68.4% / −94.7%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTJan 5, 2026 −5.3%Buys Dec 2348% 21/44+4.1% / +12.3%−20.0% / −94.7%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 +11.2%Buys Oct 2944% 233/526+5.8% / +12.3%−60.0% / −94.7%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINSep 30, 2026 +9.7%Sells Jun 3045% 5/11+8.8% / +12.3%−44.9% / −94.7%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −2.6%Buys Nov 2444% 170/384+6.1% / +12.3%−22.6% / −94.7%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-endINDec 30, 2022 +805.5%Not on one close35% 7/20+12.8% / +12.3%−54.6% / −94.7%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Sells Oct 1643% 984/2284+18.4% / +12.3%−90.0% / −94.7%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 +6.0%Buys Oct 2741% 143/348+1.8% / +12.3%−33.8% / −94.7%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · dailyINOct 2, 2026 +8.8%Sells Oct 1644% 239/541+6.1% / +12.3%−87.2% / −94.7%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmarkINJan 4, 2005Always in–+12.3%−94.7%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works
ExposureHigh6 of 10 points
  • Market swings2/3
  • Past crashes2/2
  • Debt0/3
  • Run-up2/2
  • It moves about 2.0× its index.
  • It fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes.
  • It is up 245% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 · back to its old high Aug 2024

LUG−90%
TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high May 2020

LUG−35%
TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jul 2022 · back to its old high Oct 2022

LUG−24%
TSX−14%
  • Beta1.99Moves about 2.0× as much as the TSX week to week.
  • Downside capture−101%In months the TSX fell, this fell -101% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
  • Two-year change+245%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
  • From 52-week high−17%
  • Debt to equity0.02×
  • Net debt / EBITDANet cashHolds more cash than debt.

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Gold · Lundin Gold Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates its mineral concessions in Ecuador. It explores for gold and silver deposits. The company holds interests in 27 metallic mineral concessions and 3 construction material concessions covering an area of approximately 65,000 hectares located in Ecuador.

Size and valuation
Market capC$23.1BWhat the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)$2.0BTotal sales.
P/E ratio17.9×Buyers pay C$18 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E15.6×Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book29.8×Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.
Profit and growth
Profit margin46.3%Keeps 46¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth+5.5%Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth+12.2%Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity101.2%Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow$999MCash left after running and investing in the business.
Balance sheet
Total equity$1.4BWhat it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt$26.4MLoans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash$507MCash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity0.02×Comfortable.
Wall Street
Average analyst targetC$97.752% above the close, from 12 analysts (range C$82.00 to C$131.00).
Consensus ratingBuyAnalysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield6.20%Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

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