Metals & mining

Aya Gold & Silver (AYA)

C$37.30 −4.4% on the day·+138.0% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Buy65 / 100

Buy: 65 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Trend (+33% vs 200-day) scores 96 and lifts it; Plays in (47%) scores 47 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	AYA	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	47%	47	40	18.8
Off the high	−13% from its 1-year high	58	30	17.4
Trend	+33% vs 200-day	96	30	28.8

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for AYA

Factor	AYA	Points	What it is
Plays in	47%	47	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+36% · 9 analysts	80	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.4 · strong buy	78	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	35.2×	33	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	17.3×	44	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	–	–	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth.
Price to sales	10.9×	14	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	7.7×	23	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	none	0	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+283%	94	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+151%	98	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	33%	87	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	26%	80	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	0.17×	76	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−13% from its 1-year high	58	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+33% vs 200-day	96	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+138%	97	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	6/10 · high	40	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on AYA

47 of the 100 plays hold AYA right now.
The pattern plays mostly say out.
It closed 33% above its 200-day average and 13% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads high: it moves about 3.6× its index and fell about 2.3× as far as its index in past crashes.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$50.69, 36% above the close (9 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in47 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureHigh6 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.33×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+33%). Higher than on 79% of days since 2009. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about AYA now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn AYA: right 14 of 34 · Out since Sep 22, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn AYA: right 88 of 287 · In since Sep 22, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn AYA: right 9 of 32 · In since Nov 28, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn AYA: right 129 of 172 · Out since Mar 31, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn AYA: right 31 of 58 · Out since Apr 20, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn AYA: right 30 of 64 · Out since Sep 11, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn AYA: right 21 of 36 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

AYA, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved AYA lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P/TSX; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Mon Sep 28−5.8% against the S&P/TSX1.3× a normal day

AYA −6.7%, the S&P/TSX −0.9% that session; −3.3% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on AYA was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for AYA starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.9%. The 50 other Metals & mining stocks Be The Puck covers moved −4.1% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Thu Sep 17+6.7% against the S&P/TSX1.4× a normal day

AYA +7.8%, the S&P/TSX +1.1% that session; +5.4% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on AYA was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for AYA starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved +1.1%. The 50 other Metals & mining stocks Be The Puck covers moved +4.5% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Wed Sep 2+6.2% against the S&P/TSX1.3× a normal day

AYA +6.9%, the S&P/TSX +0.7% that session; +12.3% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on AYA was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for AYA starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved +0.7%. The 50 other Metals & mining stocks Be The Puck covers moved +3.1% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on AYA

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following16 of 30 in Breakouts & channels5 of 15 in Momentum10 of 17 in Mean reversion8 of 15 in Volume & money flow4 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns0 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on AYA went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2008. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above C$38.48 (+3.2%)	16% 103/632	−31.1% / +22.6%	−99.9% / −81.7%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Apr 2, 2026 +68.1%	Exit below C$33.28 (−10.8%)	16% 18/112	+3.9% / +19.9%	−84.4% / −81.7%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Jul 21, 2026 +37.6%	Exit below C$36.94 (−1.0%)	14% 56/409	−20.7% / +27.8%	−99.7% / −81.7%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above C$38.30 (+2.7%)	14% 21/151	−3.2% / +20.4%	−80.8% / −81.7%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Apr 2, 2026 +68.1%	Exit below C$30.16 (−19.1%)	19% 12/64	+8.6% / +20.1%	−70.4% / −81.7%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Apr 2, 2026 +68.1%	Exit below C$30.16 (−19.1%)	13% 11/83	+3.8% / +20.5%	−76.8% / −81.7%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Aug 29, 2025 +173.3%	Exit below C$28.52 (−23.5%)	32% 12/38	+15.6% / +19.7%	−74.1% / −81.7%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Mar 23, 2026 +106.1%	Exit below C$28.01 (−24.9%)	8% 17/220	−13.7% / +19.4%	−98.8% / −81.7%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Jul 25, 2025 +180.0%	Not on one close	38% 10/26	+19.5% / +19.4%	−60.8% / −81.7%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Mar 23, 2026 +106.1%	Exit below C$28.01 (−24.9%)	16% 13/80	+2.1% / +20.4%	−91.5% / −81.7%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −4.4%	Enter above C$42.21 (+13.2%)	33% 41/124	+6.4% / +24.9%	−75.3% / −81.7%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above C$37.87 (+1.5%)	16% 119/726	−32.4% / +22.6%	−100.0% / −81.7%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −5.1%	Enter above C$54.36 (+45.7%)	24% 56/236	−13.4% / +20.6%	−94.7% / −81.7%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Jun 13, 2025 +182.8%	Not on one close	18% 6/34	+1.9% / +19.0%	−86.1% / −81.7%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Jun 15, 2026 +29.2%	Exit below C$34.26 (−8.1%)	19% 25/134	−4.4% / +25.5%	−94.0% / −81.7%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Jun 26, 2026 +32.6%	Exit below C$32.91 (−11.8%)	17% 22/127	−8.3% / +24.4%	−97.1% / −81.7%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Jun 15, 2026 +29.2%	Exit below C$34.70 (−7.0%)	23% 36/158	−16.9% / +22.2%	−97.8% / −81.7%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −3.6%	Not on one close	35% 97/276	+11.5% / +22.2%	−70.8% / −81.7%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$42.74 (+14.6%)	27% 150/554	−10.4% / +22.2%	−95.5% / −81.7%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Jul 27, 2026 +28.4%	Exit below C$35.43 (−5.0%)	32% 65/205	+3.4% / +22.2%	−85.9% / −81.7%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$42.61 (+14.2%)	33% 114/350	−12.9% / +22.1%	−95.1% / −81.7%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.1%	Not on one close	28% 37/132	−11.5% / +21.7%	−92.7% / −81.7%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Jun 15, 2026 +29.2%	Exit below C$38.32 (+2.7%)	23% 40/173	+2.8% / +25.5%	−90.4% / −81.7%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −3.6%	Enter above C$40.23 (+7.8%)	25% 87/344	−13.2% / +22.2%	−97.5% / −81.7%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$40.93 (+9.7%)	24% 55/234	+0.1% / +25.5%	−87.2% / −81.7%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above C$43.12 (+15.6%)	26% 45/174	−9.9% / +20.6%	−96.7% / −81.7%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Jun 15, 2026 +29.2%	Exit below C$37.23 (−0.2%)	22% 39/181	−0.1% / +27.8%	−90.5% / −81.7%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Apr 15, 2026 +52.4%	Exit below C$11.95 (−68.0%)	17% 18/107	−0.2% / +27.8%	−94.0% / −81.7%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −3.8%	Not on one close	25% 42/168	−13.4% / +20.5%	−94.8% / −81.7%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 −12.6%	Not on one close	41% 14/34	−1.8% / +25.5%	−45.8% / −81.7%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Apr 14, 2026 +47.7%	Exit below C$36.44 (−2.3%)	23% 21/91	−4.7% / +22.2%	−92.7% / −81.7%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$43.12 (+15.6%)	23% 26/114	−9.9% / +25.9%	−94.6% / −81.7%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +15.9%	Exit below C$36.44 (−2.3%)	20% 14/71	−4.3% / +25.9%	−85.9% / −81.7%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Aug 4, 2026 +15.9%	Exit below C$36.93 (−1.0%)	26% 23/89	−4.5% / +27.8%	−82.1% / −81.7%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.1%	Not on one close	30% 29/98	−0.3% / +22.2%	−93.0% / −81.7%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 −0.3%	Enter above C$43.66 (+17.1%)	29% 35/122	−4.4% / +22.6%	−81.0% / −81.7%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above C$42.13 (+12.9%)	27% 50/186	−12.6% / +22.2%	−97.2% / −81.7%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Jul 22, 2026 +26.8%	Exit below C$37.10 (−0.5%)	22% 41/189	−19.5% / +21.9%	−99.4% / −81.7%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$42.84 (+14.9%)	23% 42/180	−13.1% / +22.2%	−98.0% / −81.7%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 −12.6%	Exit below C$36.03 (−3.4%)	31% 88/287	−5.2% / +22.2%	−91.4% / −81.7%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$41.26 (+10.6%)	17% 67/388	−30.5% / +21.7%	−100.0% / −81.7%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Aug 18, 2026 +7.5%	Not on one close	26% 38/146	−8.6% / +22.2%	−87.1% / −81.7%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above C$48.83 (+30.9%)	31% 30/98	−3.1% / +22.6%	−79.9% / −81.7%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$39.04 (+4.7%)	24% 123/508	−29.2% / +22.0%	−99.9% / −81.7%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 +1.7%	Not on one close	25% 6/24	−1.9% / +19.8%	−47.8% / −81.7%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +95.9%	Exit below C$15.47 (−58.5%)	23% 6/26	+4.9% / +20.6%	−85.3% / −81.7%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +95.9%	Not on one close	28% 9/32	+1.4% / +20.6%	−87.3% / −81.7%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +95.9%	Exit below C$17.20 (−53.9%)	19% 6/32	+3.3% / +20.6%	−88.8% / −81.7%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Aug 4, 2026 +15.9%	Not on one close	19% 14/74	+0.7% / +27.8%	−61.1% / −81.7%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	May 29, 2026 +28.5%	Exit below C$36.28 (−2.7%)	26% 6/23	+3.3% / +19.9%	−62.6% / −81.7%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Jun 12, 2026 +42.7%	Exit below C$32.47 (−13.0%)	21% 21/98	+6.0% / +22.8%	−79.4% / −81.7%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 −4.0%	Enter above C$42.25 (+13.3%)	22% 94/424	−21.6% / +25.5%	−99.6% / −81.7%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above C$38.40 (+3.0%)	19% 147/772	−36.8% / +25.5%	−100.0% / −81.7%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 −8.0%	Enter above C$52.46 (+40.6%)	29% 83/284	−7.8% / +25.9%	−94.7% / −81.7%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +150.0%	Not on one close	27% 4/15	+16.9% / +26.2%	−72.4% / −81.7%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −6.1%	Enter above C$42.24 (+13.2%)	22% 106/480	−13.9% / +22.2%	−94.8% / −81.7%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 −3.5%	Enter above C$69.97 (+87.6%)	33% 75/227	+6.7% / +27.8%	−78.0% / −81.7%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Jun 15, 2026 +29.2%	Exit below C$38.30 (+2.7%)	21% 35/169	+0.6% / +27.8%	−90.5% / −81.7%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Apr 30, 2026 +58.9%	Exit below C$31.11 (−16.6%)	27% 19/70	+13.7% / +20.6%	−65.5% / −81.7%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +95.9%	Not on one close	30% 9/30	+7.5% / +24.7%	−71.0% / −78.4%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +95.9%	Not on one close	29% 6/21	+7.8% / +20.6%	−67.2% / −81.7%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 +1.7%	Enter above C$47.91 (+28.4%)	22% 70/324	−22.3% / +20.6%	−99.0% / −81.7%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	May 15, 2026 +40.9%	Not on one close	60% 18/30	+11.9% / +21.7%	−65.6% / −81.7%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −7.5%	Buy C$28.01–C$34.27 (−8.1%)	66% 143/218	+17.9% / +19.4%	−31.9% / −81.7%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 −0.1%	Sell above C$39.05 (+4.7%)	64% 180/281	+24.7% / +19.4%	−53.5% / −81.7%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Mar 31, 2026 +75.8%	Buy below C$35.82 (−4.0%)	75% 129/172	+39.7% / +22.2%	−47.8% / −81.7%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Jun 3, 2026 +36.5%	Not on one close	62% 81/130	+15.7% / +25.1%	−83.8% / −81.7%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −4.4%	Not on one close	52% 141/271	+5.6% / +22.2%	−96.2% / −81.7%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Apr 7, 2026 +64.0%	Not on one close	68% 23/34	+20.1% / +20.7%	−66.7% / −81.7%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Sep 1, 2017 +2,291.0%	Sell above C$67.69 (+81.5%)	50% 1/2	+19.6% / +19.4%	−81.7% / −81.7%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	May 25, 2026 +44.6%	Not on one close	64% 27/42	+6.6% / +20.6%	−47.8% / −81.7%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −4.4%	Not on one close	35% 104/295	−10.7% / +22.6%	−99.2% / −81.7%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −4.5%	Not on one close	44% 171/385	+0.9% / +22.6%	−97.3% / −81.7%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sell above C$37.30 (0.0%)	54% 881/1623	+81.9% / +20.9%	−65.6% / −81.7%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Apr 13, 2026 +59.9%	Not on one close	69% 40/58	+9.9% / +19.4%	−56.2% / −81.7%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −4.4%	Exit below C$37.61 (+0.8%)	29% 279/954	−15.2% / +25.5%	−99.6% / −81.7%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −2.6%	Sell above C$39.08 (+4.8%)	59% 69/116	+10.2% / +22.2%	−77.2% / −81.7%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −3.8%	Not on one close	22% 102/462	−19.1% / +22.2%	−98.6% / −81.7%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 15, 2026 +0.5%	Not on one close	37% 63/172	+6.5% / +22.2%	−89.2% / −81.7%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 +50.3%	Not on one close	53% 31/58	−0.1% / +21.7%	−90.0% / −81.7%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Nov 21, 2025 +176.7%	Not on one close	36% 38/105	+13.2% / +20.6%	−73.2% / −81.7%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$38.46 (+3.1%)	23% 110/476	−18.6% / +22.2%	−99.5% / −81.7%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2026 −3.1%	Enter above C$44.89 (+20.3%)	23% 91/398	−17.4% / +21.8%	−98.8% / −81.7%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −4.5%	Exit below C$37.30 (0.0%)	30% 123/411	−13.7% / +22.2%	−99.3% / −81.7%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Aug 6, 2026 +5.7%	Not on one close	29% 26/90	+10.3% / +20.6%	−74.6% / −81.7%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 −0.1%	Not on one close	27% 185/685	−15.5% / +26.3%	−99.3% / −81.7%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above C$38.28 (+2.6%)	47% 30/64	+6.4% / +21.6%	−86.3% / −81.7%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Jul 20, 2026 +43.5%	Not on one close	30% 16/54	+2.1% / +20.7%	−74.7% / −81.7%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2025 +186.7%	Not on one close	46% 13/28	+1.8% / +22.2%	−37.1% / −81.7%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +58.9%	Buys Oct 30	58% 21/36	+17.4% / +20.9%	−67.8% / −81.7%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 23, 2026 +58.1%	Enter above C$39.54 (+6.0%)	47% 17/36	+8.4% / +25.5%	−84.0% / −81.7%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 28, 2026 +61.3%	Window opens Oct 16	42% 15/36	+6.5% / +25.5%	−86.7% / −81.7%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +85.8%	Buys Dec 23	47% 17/36	+4.0% / +20.9%	−30.5% / −81.7%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −3.2%	Buys Oct 29	46% 201/438	+13.3% / +20.9%	−53.7% / −81.7%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −2.6%	Sells Jun 30	44% 4/9	+1.5% / +20.9%	−61.7% / −81.7%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −6.7%	Buys Nov 24	47% 151/322	+7.9% / +20.9%	−28.6% / −81.7%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +313.5%	Not on one close	38% 6/16	+16.7% / +26.3%	−68.6% / −81.7%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	43% 826/1901	+42.4% / +20.9%	−70.0% / −81.7%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −0.3%	Buys Oct 27	43% 124/290	+1.5% / +20.9%	−48.5% / −81.7%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −3.6%	Sells Oct 16	44% 197/451	+5.2% / +20.9%	−83.2% / −81.7%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jul 24, 2008	Always in	–	+20.9%	−81.7%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureHigh6 of 10 points

Market swings3/3
Past crashes2/2
Debt0/3
Run-up1/2

It moves about 3.6× its index.
It fell about 2.3× as far as its index in past crashes.
It is up 103% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Feb 2020 · back to its old high Apr 2020

AYA−54%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jul 2022 · back to its old high Dec 2022

AYA−45%

TSX−14%

Beta3.58Moves about 3.6× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture360%In months the TSX fell, this fell 360% as much on average.
Two-year change+103%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−13%
Debt to equity0.21×
Net debt / EBITDANet cashHolds more cash than debt.
Interest cover7.7×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Silver · Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metals projects in Morocco. The company primarily explores for gold and silver deposits. Its flagship project holds 100% interests in the Zgounder property located east of Agadir in the Proterozoic Siroua Massif of the Anti-Atlas Range, Morocco covering an area of approximately 378 square kilometers.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$5.4B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$344M	Total sales.
P/E ratio	35.2×	Buyers pay C$35 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	17.3×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	7.7×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	32.8%	Keeps 33¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+150.7%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+283.3%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	25.7%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$61.3M	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$414M	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$86.3M	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$183M	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.21×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	7.7×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$50.69	36% above the close, from 9 analysts (range C$44.21 to C$57.36).
Consensus rating	Strong buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

AYA: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Metals & mining: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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