Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on Aya Gold & Silver
AYA with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2008
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding AYA over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2008 | Hold, since 2008 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −0.1% | +21.7% | +32.2% | +32.7% |
| Total return | −1% | +3,354% | +301% | +309% |
| Worst drawdown | −90.0% | −81.7% | −22.0% | −54.9% |
| Volatility | 53.7% | 83.8% | 24.8% | 68.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.23 | 0.63 | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| Time invested | 35% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 3.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 31 of 58 closed calls (53%). In calls averaged +1.9%; out calls saw AYA move +32.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | AYA moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2026 | OUT | C$24.81 | now | +50.3% | open |
| Mar 27, 2026 | IN | C$18.25 | Apr 20, 2026 | +35.9% | ✓ right |
| Mar 28, 2024 | OUT | C$11.66 | Mar 27, 2026 | +56.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 28, 2024 | IN | C$9.64 | Mar 28, 2024 | +21.0% | ✓ right |
| Dec 5, 2023 | OUT | C$10.16 | Feb 28, 2024 | −5.1% | ✓ right |
| Aug 11, 2023 | IN | C$7.74 | Dec 5, 2023 | +31.3% | ✓ right |
| Aug 9, 2022 | OUT | C$8.15 | Aug 11, 2023 | −5.0% | ✓ right |
| Jul 19, 2022 | IN | C$5.58 | Aug 9, 2022 | +46.1% | ✓ right |
| Feb 24, 2022 | OUT | C$9.90 | Jul 19, 2022 | −43.6% | ✓ right |
| Oct 7, 2021 | IN | C$8.52 | Feb 24, 2022 | +16.2% | ✓ right |
| May 4, 2020 | OUT | C$1.69 | Oct 7, 2021 | +404.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 21, 2019 | IN | C$1.81 | May 4, 2020 | −6.6% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 59 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.