Guide · Momentum
Does CCI +100 work?
Across 375 stocks, CCI +100 cut the worst fall on 83%, beat buying and holding on risk-adjusted return on 12% and on raw return on 12%. Mainly a seatbelt: it softened the big falls on most stocks, but usually gave up return to do it.
What it predicts
The Commodity Channel Index measures how far price has run from its average. Lambert bought above +100 and sold when it fell back.
- In when the CCI (20) crosses above +100.
- Out when it crosses back below +100.
Momentum plays bet that what has risen most over the past months tends to keep outperforming for a while. The family guide
How to use it
- It trades often (about 28 switches a year per stock), so costs, spreads and taxes eat into it more than the backtest's 0.05% per switch suggests.
- Expect to be wrong more often than right: only 28% of its calls worked. Its results come from the size of the winners, so following it means sitting through strings of small losses.
- It sits in cash much of the time (holding on about 25% of days), so judge it on risk-adjusted return rather than on matching a rising market.
- It worked best on Micro caps (33% beat holding on risk-adjusted return) and worst on Media & telecom (0%).
- Use it as one input. Your signal combines the plays you count with the other factors you weight into one call.
When it worked
CCI +100 did best against holding in the 2008 crash (+29% median gap) and worst in the 2020–21 rally (−38%). Median gap in return against holding the same stock (per year over stretches longer than 18 months; crypto excluded).
| 2008 crash | Recovery 2009–19 | COVID drop | 2020–21 rally | 2022 bear | Since Oct 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCI +100 | +29% | −16% | +26% | −38% | +16% | −15% |
Where it worked
By kind of stock: how often it beat holding on risk-adjusted return, and the median Sharpe ratio gap.
| Group | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Sharpe gap |
|---|---|---|
| Micro caps | 33% | -0.04 |
| Energy & power | 22% | -0.31 |
| Financials | 19% | -0.18 |
| Big tech | 17% | -0.34 |
| Indexes & ETFs | 14% | -0.45 |
| Industrials & materials | 12% | -0.37 |
| Healthcare | 11% | -0.39 |
| Industrials & rentals | 11% | -0.28 |
| Metals & mining | 10% | -0.32 |
| Software & devices | 9% | -0.49 |
| Real estate | 5% | -0.39 |
| Consumer & retail | 3% | -0.59 |
| Sectors | 0% | -0.62 |
| Semiconductors | 0% | -0.59 |
| Media & telecom | 0% | -0.44 |
Where it helped most
Sharpe ratio gap against holding, stocks with 3+ years of history
Right now
CCI +100 holds 102 of 377 names as of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
Changed its call in the last two weeks:
Backtest results since 2005 (or as long as each stock has traded), against holding the same stock over the same dates, after 0.05% per switch. Past results don't promise future ones. This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.