Indexes & ETFs
20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT)
Your signal
Sell38 / 100
Sell: 38 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Off the high (−11% from its 1-year high) scores 63 and lifts it; Plays in (27%) scores 27 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | TLT | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 27% | 27 | 40 | 10.8 |
| Off the high | −11% from its 1-year high | 63 | 30 | 18.9 |
| Trend | −6% vs 200-day | 27 | 30 | 8.1 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for TLT
| Factor | TLT | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 27% | 27 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −11% from its 1-year high | 63 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | −6% vs 200-day | 27 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | −9% | 24 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 0/10 · low | 100 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on TLT- 27 of the 100 plays hold TLT right now.
- The trend-following, breakout and momentum plays mostly say out.
- It closed 6% below its 200-day average and 11% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in27 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple0.94×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−6%). Higher than on 11% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about TLT now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn TLT: right 11 of 30 · Out since Feb 3, 2021Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn TLT: right 6 of 17 · Out since Sep 28, 2026Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn TLT: right 14 of 31 · Out since Aug 31, 2026Mean reversionBollinger ReversionIN64% of 53,095 calls rightOn TLT: right 112 of 179 · In since Sep 10, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn TLT: right 16 of 31 · In since Oct 15, 2024Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn TLT: right 39 of 70 · In since Jul 15, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn TLT: right 21 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
TLT, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on TLT
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following3 of 30 inBreakouts & channels1 of 15 inMomentum3 of 17 inMean reversion10 of 15 inVolume & money flow4 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns1 of 3 inCalendar5 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on TLT went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −2.2% | Enter above $78.75 (+0.5%) | 26% 181/697 | −1.2% / +2.7% | −42.8% / −48.4% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | OUT | Jul 2, 2026 −7.3% | Enter above $82.09 (+4.7%) | 28% 29/105 | +3.0% / +2.7% | −25.8% / −48.4% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −4.7% | Enter above $80.17 (+2.3%) | 21% 87/405 | +1.0% / +2.7% | −39.2% / −48.4% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | Aug 13, 2020 −41.8% | Not on one close | 14% 5/36 | +0.6% / +2.8% | −23.1% / −48.4% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Mar 13, 2026 −6.9% | Enter above $107.48 (+37.1%) | 27% 20/75 | +4.2% / +2.7% | −17.8% / −48.4% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Apr 11, 2025 −3.5% | Enter above $92.27 (+17.7%) | 31% 25/80 | +3.3% / +2.7% | −18.4% / −48.4% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | OUT | Mar 31, 2026 −7.1% | Enter above $83.35 (+6.4%) | 27% 13/49 | +2.7% / +2.7% | −26.8% / −48.4% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | OUT | Jun 30, 2026 −7.9% | Enter above $83.48 (+6.5%) | 12% 29/239 | +0.9% / +2.7% | −42.4% / −48.4% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | OUT | May 7, 2026 −6.7% | Enter above $278.55 (+255.4%) | 28% 11/39 | +2.8% / +2.7% | −27.2% / −48.4% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Jun 30, 2026 −7.9% | Enter above $201.88 (+157.6%) | 16% 20/129 | +2.2% / +2.7% | −24.7% / −48.4% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | OUT | Jul 17, 2026 −6.2% | Enter above $83.34 (+6.3%) | 40% 55/136 | +4.1% / +2.7% | −17.9% / −48.4% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $77.76 (−0.8%) | 25% 196/798 | −1.4% / +2.7% | −47.5% / −48.4% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 −0.9% | Enter above $79.41 (+1.3%) | 34% 92/274 | +0.6% / +2.7% | −40.6% / −48.4% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | OUT | Jul 9, 2026 −6.1% | Enter above $144.13 (+83.9%) | 27% 10/37 | +2.6% / +2.8% | −27.7% / −48.4% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | OUT | Jul 8, 2026 −6.0% | Enter above $100.92 (+28.8%) | 29% 40/137 | +2.8% / +2.7% | −25.0% / −48.4% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | OUT | Jul 13, 2026 −5.6% | Not on one close | 32% 37/115 | +3.5% / +2.7% | −24.1% / −48.4% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −2.6% | Enter above $79.34 (+1.2%) | 36% 72/198 | +1.2% / +2.7% | −32.1% / −48.4% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Jul 9, 2026 −6.1% | Not on one close | 39% 124/318 | +2.6% / +2.7% | −17.3% / −48.4% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −3.7% | Enter above $81.20 (+3.6%) | 31% 190/607 | −0.7% / +2.7% | −49.9% / −48.4% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −2.6% | Enter above $81.98 (+4.6%) | 35% 75/214 | +0.9% / +2.7% | −33.1% / −48.4% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $76.75 (−2.1%) | 38% 183/476 | +1.0% / +2.7% | −36.7% / −48.4% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Nov 3, 2025 −8.9% | Enter above $79.69 (+1.7%) | 28% 37/132 | +1.0% / +2.7% | −23.4% / −48.4% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Jul 9, 2026 −6.1% | Enter above $88.48 (+12.9%) | 29% 55/187 | +3.2% / +2.7% | −21.7% / −48.4% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | OUT | Jul 24, 2026 −4.7% | Enter above $80.58 (+2.8%) | 41% 37/91 | +3.3% / +2.7% | −27.3% / −48.4% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −4.3% | Enter above $137.54 (+75.5%) | 34% 78/231 | +3.2% / +2.7% | −26.0% / −48.4% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 −3.8% | Not on one close | 37% 100/270 | +1.3% / +2.7% | −42.2% / −48.4% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | OUT | Jul 8, 2026 −6.0% | Enter above $87.57 (+11.7%) | 29% 33/113 | +2.5% / +2.7% | −21.3% / −48.4% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | OUT | Jul 13, 2026 −5.6% | Enter above $104.03 (+32.7%) | 33% 33/99 | +3.6% / +2.7% | −23.4% / −48.4% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −2.2% | Not on one close | 36% 94/258 | +1.3% / +2.7% | −33.4% / −48.4% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Feb 3, 2021 −36.7% | Not on one close | 37% 11/30 | +1.1% / +2.7% | −20.5% / −48.4% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | OUT | Jul 13, 2026 −5.6% | Enter above $81.61 (+4.1%) | 37% 50/134 | +2.6% / +2.7% | −30.7% / −48.4% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Jul 1, 2026 −7.3% | Enter above $83.35 (+6.3%) | 35% 50/142 | +1.8% / +2.7% | −25.3% / −48.4% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Jul 7, 2026 −6.2% | Enter above $83.35 (+6.3%) | 40% 37/92 | +3.0% / +2.7% | −22.7% / −48.4% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Mar 6, 2026 −9.0% | Enter above $147.45 (+88.1%) | 32% 33/104 | +1.8% / +2.7% | −22.9% / −48.4% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | OUT | Jul 29, 2026 −4.3% | Enter above $80.23 (+2.4%) | 32% 39/120 | +1.3% / +2.7% | −34.2% / −48.4% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Jul 1, 2026 −7.3% | Enter above $80.61 (+2.9%) | 33% 58/176 | +1.6% / +2.7% | −23.2% / −48.4% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −3.9% | Enter above $82.23 (+4.9%) | 36% 74/206 | +2.0% / +2.7% | −24.4% / −48.4% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | OUT | Jul 2, 2026 −7.3% | Enter above $81.47 (+4.0%) | 36% 76/212 | +2.0% / +2.7% | −26.6% / −48.4% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Jul 7, 2026 −6.2% | Enter above $79.18 (+1.0%) | 36% 78/217 | +1.7% / +2.7% | −36.0% / −48.4% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 +0.1% | Enter above $89.59 (+14.3%) | 35% 6/17 | +1.4% / +2.7% | −31.7% / −48.4% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −2.6% | Enter above $80.01 (+2.1%) | 24% 102/429 | +0.9% / +2.7% | −27.7% / −48.4% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Jun 30, 2026 −7.9% | Not on one close | 26% 75/288 | −0.1% / +2.7% | −30.4% / −48.4% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −3.9% | Not on one close | 39% 28/72 | +1.3% / +2.7% | −7.5% / −48.4% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 +1.4% | Exit below $77.83 (−0.7%) | 34% 277/826 | −1.8% / +2.7% | −50.3% / −48.4% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Jan 20, 2026 −6.4% | Not on one close | 39% 18/46 | +2.0% / +2.7% | −10.2% / −48.4% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | OUT | Jun 30, 2026 −7.9% | Enter above $89.47 (+14.2%) | 29% 9/31 | +3.1% / +2.6% | −26.6% / −48.4% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −4.3% | Not on one close | 45% 14/31 | +1.7% / +2.6% | −31.3% / −48.4% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | OUT | Nov 30, 2020 −40.6% | Enter above $99.49 (+26.9%) | 44% 12/27 | +2.5% / +2.6% | −31.2% / −48.4% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Apr 15, 2026 −7.6% | Not on one close | 17% 33/191 | +2.4% / +2.7% | −25.0% / −48.4% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | IN | Jul 31, 2024 −8.8% | Exit below $74.88 (−4.5%) | 60% 6/10 | +3.0% / +2.7% | −34.1% / −48.4% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | OUT | Mar 13, 2026 −6.9% | Enter above $85.88 (+9.6%) | 34% 42/122 | +2.1% / +2.7% | −21.0% / −48.4% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 +0.4% | Exit below $76.24 (−2.7%) | 36% 159/438 | +1.3% / +2.7% | −38.6% / −48.4% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $77.62 (−1.0%) | 29% 241/820 | −1.9% / +2.7% | −54.0% / −48.4% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 −2.7% | Enter above $80.75 (+3.0%) | 40% 125/312 | +2.2% / +2.7% | −37.1% / −48.4% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +1.2% | Enter above $84.35 (+7.6%) | 23% 5/22 | +1.5% / +2.6% | −49.9% / −48.4% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −4.7% | Enter above $82.25 (+4.9%) | 28% 180/644 | −0.8% / +2.7% | −41.2% / −48.4% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 −2.8% | Enter above $86.04 (+9.8%) | 42% 108/260 | +2.1% / +2.7% | −33.4% / −48.4% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | OUT | Jul 9, 2026 −6.1% | Enter above $89.00 (+13.6%) | 29% 55/191 | +3.0% / +2.7% | −22.3% / −48.4% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | OUT | Jul 31, 2026 −3.6% | Enter above $79.30 (+1.2%) | 30% 30/99 | +1.7% / +2.6% | −27.6% / −48.4% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −4.3% | Not on one close | 48% 14/29 | +1.8% / +2.6% | −31.3% / −48.4% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | OUT | May 29, 2026 −6.8% | Not on one close | 43% 16/37 | +2.2% / +2.6% | −27.7% / −48.4% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −2.2% | Enter above $78.20 (−0.2%) | 34% 119/346 | +1.4% / +2.7% | −36.6% / −48.4% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | May 20, 2026 −4.8% | Not on one close | 65% 20/31 | +1.4% / +2.7% | −31.2% / −48.4% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Mar 17, 2026 −7.9% | Not on one close | 61% 160/264 | +2.5% / +2.7% | −8.2% / −48.4% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Mar 19, 2026 −8.0% | Not on one close | 60% 203/336 | +3.7% / +2.7% | −11.9% / −48.4% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | IN | Sep 10, 2026 −2.6% | Sell above $78.75 (+0.5%) | 63% 112/179 | +1.6% / +2.7% | −24.8% / −48.4% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | IN | Sep 15, 2026 −2.5% | Not on one close | 58% 102/176 | −0.7% / +2.7% | −41.4% / −48.4% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 −3.8% | Not on one close | 59% 176/297 | −0.2% / +2.7% | −38.5% / −48.4% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | IN | Jul 13, 2026 −5.6% | Not on one close | 61% 51/83 | +1.0% / +2.7% | −45.3% / −48.4% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Nov 22, 2004 +81.5% | Sell above $201.77 (+157.5%) | – | +2.7% / +2.7% | −48.4% / −48.4% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Nov 16, 2016 −15.3% | Buy below $75.24 (−4.0%) | 0% 0/2 | +1.7% / +2.7% | −2.7% / −48.4% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 −3.8% | Not on one close | 44% 141/324 | −0.4% / +2.7% | −38.5% / −48.4% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $77.96 (−0.5%) | 54% 231/431 | −2.5% / +2.7% | −50.3% / −48.4% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +1.6% | Buy below $78.37 (0.0%) | 58% 1092/1898 | −0.6% / +2.7% | −29.0% / −48.4% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Apr 14, 2026 −8.0% | Not on one close | 61% 54/89 | +2.3% / +2.7% | −18.6% / −48.4% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $75.77 (−3.3%) | 34% 383/1126 | −4.1% / +2.7% | −67.0% / −48.4% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | IN | Jul 31, 2026 −3.6% | Sell above $79.03 (+0.8%) | 52% 65/124 | +0.1% / +2.7% | −41.9% / −48.4% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Sep 22, 2026 −3.7% | Not on one close | 26% 201/771 | +0.0% / +2.7% | −42.6% / −48.4% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 +0.4% | Not on one close | 44% 90/204 | +1.0% / +2.7% | −33.8% / −48.4% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | IN | Oct 15, 2024 −9.8% | Not on one close | 52% 16/31 | 0.0% / +2.7% | −43.7% / −48.4% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +1.2% | Not on one close | 39% 49/127 | +3.6% / +2.8% | −26.2% / −48.4% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −2.2% | Enter above $78.57 (+0.3%) | 27% 202/759 | −0.5% / +2.7% | −39.7% / −48.4% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −4.3% | Enter above $80.12 (+2.2%) | 39% 134/343 | +3.5% / +2.7% | −23.9% / −48.4% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 +1.6% | Not on one close | 34% 223/658 | −4.0% / +2.7% | −70.9% / −48.4% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | OUT | Jul 16, 2026 −5.8% | Not on one close | 32% 37/117 | +2.8% / +2.7% | −26.2% / −48.4% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.6% | Not on one close | 33% 332/1018 | −2.6% / +2.7% | −58.2% / −48.4% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | IN | Jul 15, 2026 −5.9% | Not on one close | 56% 39/70 | −0.2% / +2.7% | −44.4% / −48.4% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Jul 21, 2026 −5.2% | Not on one close | 39% 48/123 | +3.7% / +2.7% | −24.0% / −48.4% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −3.8% | Not on one close | 45% 40/88 | +2.3% / +2.7% | −8.8% / −48.4% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 −6.3% | Buys Oct 30 | 49% 21/43 | +2.3% / +2.7% | −31.0% / −48.4% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 +0.5% | Window opens Apr 1 | 45% 20/44 | +1.7% / +2.7% | −33.7% / −48.4% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | Apr 28, 2026 −7.1% | Window opens Oct 16 | 53% 23/43 | +2.3% / +2.7% | −30.6% / −48.4% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 −7.3% | Buys Dec 23 | 41% 18/44 | +1.6% / +2.7% | −11.5% / −48.4% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +1.6% | Buys Oct 29 | 47% 246/526 | −0.4% / +2.7% | −38.8% / −48.4% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +1.2% | Sells Jun 30 | 45% 5/11 | +1.9% / +2.7% | −16.3% / −48.4% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −4.3% | Buys Nov 24 | 49% 197/400 | +0.1% / +2.7% | −19.7% / −48.4% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 −8.3% | Not on one close | 60% 12/20 | +2.8% / +2.7% | −22.4% / −48.4% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 +0.4% | Sells Oct 16 | 52% 1192/2284 | −1.7% / +2.7% | −44.7% / −48.4% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −2.7% | Buys Oct 27 | 52% 180/348 | +1.9% / +2.7% | −13.2% / −48.4% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Sells Oct 16 | 50% 270/541 | +2.2% / +2.7% | −37.5% / −48.4% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jan 3, 2005 | Always in | – | +2.7% | −48.4% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureLow0 of 10 points
- Market swings0/3
- Past crashes0/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
Nothing on the checklist stands out.
- Beta0.08Moves about 0.1× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture112%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 112% as much on average.
- Two-year change−9%
- From 52-week high−11%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.