Mean reversion · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
Bollinger Reversion on 20+ Year Treasury ETF
What the play says
TLT with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding TLT over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +1.6% | +2.7% | +1.5% | −8.4% |
| Total return | +41% | +80% | +8% | −36% |
| Worst drawdown | −24.8% | −48.4% | −20.8% | −43.7% |
| Volatility | 7.1% | 14.5% | 9.5% | 15.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.01 | 0.14 | −0.20 | −0.73 |
| Time invested | 24% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 8.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 112 of 179 closed calls (63%). In calls averaged +0.2%; out calls saw TLT move +0.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | TLT moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | IN | $80.46 | now | −2.6% | open |
| Aug 19, 2026 | OUT | $82.37 | Sep 10, 2026 | −2.3% | ✓ right |
| Jul 31, 2026 | IN | $81.28 | Aug 19, 2026 | +1.3% | ✓ right |
| May 26, 2026 | OUT | $83.46 | Jul 31, 2026 | −2.6% | ✓ right |
| May 15, 2026 | IN | $82.05 | May 26, 2026 | +1.7% | ✓ right |
| May 8, 2026 | OUT | $84.42 | May 15, 2026 | −2.8% | ✓ right |
| Apr 29, 2026 | IN | $83.74 | May 8, 2026 | +0.8% | ✓ right |
| Apr 2, 2026 | OUT | $84.80 | Apr 29, 2026 | −1.3% | ✓ right |
| Mar 11, 2026 | IN | $84.81 | Apr 2, 2026 | 0.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 22, 2026 | OUT | $84.73 | Mar 11, 2026 | +0.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 20, 2026 | IN | $83.73 | Jan 22, 2026 | +1.2% | ✓ right |
| May 30, 2025 | OUT | $80.94 | Jan 20, 2026 | +3.4% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 180 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.