Sectors
Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF (XLP)
Your signal
Buy62 / 100
Buy: 62 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−5% from its 1-year high) scores 84 and lifts it; Trend (+2% vs 200-day) scores 47 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | XLP | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 56% | 56 | 40 | 22.4 |
| Off the high | −5% from its 1-year high | 84 | 30 | 25.2 |
| Trend | +2% vs 200-day | 47 | 30 | 14.1 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for XLP
| Factor | XLP | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 56% | 56 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −5% from its 1-year high | 84 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | +2% vs 200-day | 47 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | +11% | 47 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 0/10 · low | 100 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on XLP- 56 of the 100 plays hold XLP right now.
- The volume plays mostly say in; the pattern plays mostly say out.
- It closed 2% above its 200-day average and 5% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in56 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.02×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+2%). Higher than on 28% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about XLP now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn XLP: right 23 of 44 · Out since Oct 3, 2024Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn XLP: right 5 of 20 · In since May 9, 2024Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn XLP: right 10 of 18 · In since Dec 31, 2025Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn XLP: right 122 of 196 · Out since Oct 8, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn XLP: right 21 of 36 · Out since Feb 10, 2026Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn XLP: right 65 of 126 · Out since Jun 29, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn XLP: right 24 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
XLP, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on XLP
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following15 of 30 inBreakouts & channels8 of 15 inMomentum11 of 17 inMean reversion10 of 15 inVolume & money flow7 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns0 of 3 inCalendar5 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on XLP went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $82.69 (−1.8%) | 26% 181/696 | +1.2% / +8.9% | −34.0% / −32.4% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 +1.6% | Enter above $83.66 (−0.6%) | 23% 30/133 | +2.6% / +8.9% | −18.6% / −32.4% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $82.92 (−1.5%) | 21% 84/392 | +2.6% / +8.9% | −21.6% / −32.4% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2024 +10.1% | Enter above $95.66 (+13.6%) | 25% 6/24 | +1.8% / +9.0% | −13.4% / −32.4% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 +1.6% | Enter above $89.34 (+6.1%) | 19% 19/102 | +2.1% / +8.9% | −24.2% / −32.4% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Apr 2, 2026 +4.2% | Enter above $89.62 (+6.4%) | 26% 30/114 | +0.5% / +8.9% | −28.5% / −32.4% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +4.5% | Enter above $83.13 (−1.3%) | 26% 11/42 | +5.0% / +8.9% | −28.7% / −32.4% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $82.92 (−1.5%) | 11% 25/232 | +2.4% / +8.9% | −27.9% / −32.4% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Feb 2, 2026 +1.6% | Exit below $38.23 (−54.6%) | 35% 11/31 | +5.7% / +8.9% | −25.5% / −32.4% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $82.92 (−1.5%) | 13% 24/184 | +2.7% / +8.9% | −24.1% / −32.4% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 +1.6% | Enter above $85.19 (+1.2%) | 37% 52/141 | +4.3% / +8.9% | −18.5% / −32.4% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $82.66 (−1.8%) | 22% 178/825 | −0.3% / +8.9% | −40.7% / −32.4% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $76.99 (−8.6%) | 31% 88/280 | +3.8% / +8.9% | −18.9% / −32.4% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | Dec 17, 2025 +8.6% | Exit below $58.02 (−31.1%) | 29% 4/14 | +6.4% / +9.0% | −27.4% / −32.4% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 +0.9% | Enter above $88.25 (+4.8%) | 26% 38/147 | +3.0% / +8.9% | −22.4% / −32.4% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 +0.2% | Not on one close | 24% 33/137 | +2.8% / +8.9% | −21.5% / −32.4% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $81.70 (−3.0%) | 37% 56/152 | +4.1% / +8.9% | −22.1% / −32.4% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 +2.0% | Not on one close | 44% 156/353 | +3.5% / +8.9% | −17.9% / −32.4% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $80.59 (−4.3%) | 35% 201/574 | +3.7% / +8.9% | −22.0% / −32.4% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $80.10 (−4.9%) | 39% 83/214 | +3.3% / +8.9% | −18.4% / −32.4% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 +2.9% | Exit below $81.32 (−3.4%) | 36% 186/517 | +1.7% / +8.9% | −19.9% / −32.4% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Mar 5, 2026 +0.5% | Not on one close | 32% 46/143 | +2.1% / +8.9% | −11.1% / −32.4% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 +0.9% | Enter above $83.01 (−1.4%) | 30% 56/185 | +4.1% / +8.9% | −22.4% / −32.4% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 +2.6% | Enter above $83.75 (−0.5%) | 32% 27/85 | +4.6% / +8.9% | −24.2% / −32.4% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $59.23 (−29.6%) | 29% 66/224 | +3.5% / +8.9% | −23.1% / −32.4% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Not on one close | 36% 93/260 | +3.1% / +8.9% | −31.8% / −32.4% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $82.19 (−2.4%) | 31% 37/118 | +4.6% / +8.9% | −17.7% / −32.4% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 +1.6% | Enter above $90.48 (+7.5%) | 27% 26/95 | +4.3% / +8.9% | −17.6% / −32.4% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −0.8% | Not on one close | 33% 74/221 | +2.9% / +8.9% | −19.2% / −32.4% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Oct 3, 2024 +9.4% | Not on one close | 52% 23/44 | +2.2% / +8.9% | −3.9% / −32.4% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Exit below $80.10 (−4.9%) | 30% 37/122 | +4.3% / +8.9% | −13.7% / −32.4% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Mar 5, 2026 +0.5% | Enter above $88.20 (+4.8%) | 28% 44/155 | +2.5% / +8.9% | −22.6% / −32.4% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Mar 5, 2026 +0.5% | Enter above $88.20 (+4.8%) | 25% 27/109 | +2.0% / +8.9% | −27.9% / −32.4% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 +0.9% | Enter above $86.88 (+3.2%) | 28% 35/126 | +1.4% / +8.9% | −18.1% / −32.4% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Exit below $80.10 (−4.9%) | 27% 35/129 | +3.3% / +8.9% | −15.1% / −32.4% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Mar 4, 2026 −1.5% | Enter above $84.74 (+0.7%) | 27% 44/161 | +1.7% / +8.9% | −15.4% / −32.4% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Exit below $82.19 (−2.4%) | 26% 63/242 | +0.5% / +8.9% | −20.5% / −32.4% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Exit below $82.08 (−2.5%) | 31% 58/186 | +2.6% / +8.9% | −16.8% / −32.4% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $81.47 (−3.2%) | 37% 60/164 | +3.5% / +8.9% | −23.2% / −32.4% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | May 9, 2024 +16.6% | Exit below $77.99 (−7.4%) | 25% 5/20 | +4.7% / +8.9% | −31.9% / −32.4% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $82.47 (−2.0%) | 25% 82/322 | +3.0% / +8.9% | −21.5% / −32.4% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Feb 17, 2026 −2.7% | Not on one close | 19% 39/204 | +0.6% / +8.9% | −10.5% / −32.4% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | May 12, 2026 +1.1% | Not on one close | 32% 40/124 | +1.1% / +8.9% | −9.6% / −32.4% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +3.9% | Exit below $80.15 (−4.8%) | 29% 210/731 | −0.7% / +8.9% | −47.2% / −32.4% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Oct 28, 2025 +10.3% | Not on one close | 26% 10/38 | +1.6% / +8.9% | −6.3% / −32.4% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | IN | Jun 30, 2026 +2.0% | Exit below $76.98 (−8.6%) | 32% 11/34 | +6.9% / +8.9% | −24.5% / −32.4% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | IN | Dec 31, 2025 +10.5% | Not on one close | 56% 10/18 | +8.0% / +8.9% | −24.5% / −32.4% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | OUT | Apr 30, 2025 +7.2% | Enter above $85.60 (+1.7%) | 41% 17/41 | +3.3% / +8.9% | −25.5% / −32.4% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Sep 15, 2026 +1.2% | Not on one close | 18% 37/203 | +2.4% / +8.9% | −17.5% / −32.4% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | IN | Nov 30, 2022 +21.4% | Exit below $75.06 (−10.8%) | 50% 3/6 | +7.0% / +8.9% | −25.7% / −32.4% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | OUT | Apr 17, 2026 +3.5% | Enter above $86.73 (+3.0%) | 34% 46/134 | +1.9% / +8.9% | −20.7% / −32.4% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 +3.0% | Exit below $77.43 (−8.0%) | 30% 145/486 | +2.3% / +8.9% | −17.6% / −32.4% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 +2.9% | Exit below $82.72 (−1.7%) | 28% 228/819 | +0.9% / +8.9% | −38.1% / −32.4% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $72.73 (−13.6%) | 38% 124/330 | +4.3% / +8.9% | −19.0% / −32.4% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Jan 31, 2019 +93.6% | Exit below $53.60 (−36.3%) | 20% 1/5 | +8.8% / +9.2% | −24.5% / −32.4% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $83.22 (−1.1%) | 23% 178/779 | −1.9% / +8.9% | −39.4% / −32.4% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Exit below $67.15 (−20.2%) | 39% 106/272 | +4.2% / +8.9% | −17.0% / −32.4% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 +0.9% | Enter above $83.26 (−1.1%) | 31% 55/179 | +3.9% / +8.9% | −23.7% / −32.4% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +4.5% | Enter above $81.29 (−3.4%) | 30% 24/79 | +4.1% / +8.9% | −29.0% / −32.4% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | IN | Dec 31, 2025 +10.5% | Not on one close | 56% 10/18 | +7.9% / +8.9% | −24.5% / −32.4% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | OUT | Jul 31, 2026 −0.4% | Not on one close | 58% 18/31 | +7.7% / +8.9% | −24.5% / −32.4% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $77.35 (−8.1%) | 30% 111/364 | +3.5% / +8.9% | −23.2% / −32.4% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Mar 23, 2026 +5.1% | Not on one close | 67% 29/43 | +6.9% / +8.9% | −32.4% / −32.4% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 +0.4% | Not on one close | 62% 234/379 | +3.4% / +8.9% | −11.2% / −32.4% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Not on one close | 66% 314/473 | +6.7% / +8.9% | −11.0% / −32.4% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Buy below $79.60 (−5.4%) | 62% 122/196 | +6.3% / +8.9% | −20.1% / −32.4% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | IN | Sep 11, 2026 +1.6% | Flips at next check | 65% 100/153 | +4.3% / +8.9% | −29.1% / −32.4% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | IN | Sep 14, 2026 +0.4% | Exit below $84.12 (−0.1%) | 61% 178/291 | +5.4% / +8.9% | −32.3% / −32.4% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | IN | Mar 12, 2026 +1.9% | Not on one close | 56% 35/63 | +5.3% / +8.9% | −22.6% / −32.4% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Nov 22, 2004 +552.7% | Sell above $200.43 (+138.1%) | – | +8.9% / +8.9% | −32.4% / −32.4% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Mar 2, 2020 +64.7% | Buy below $70.71 (−16.0%) | 50% 1/2 | +1.9% / +8.9% | −2.0% / −32.4% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 +2.9% | Exit below $82.05 (−2.5%) | 43% 135/317 | +2.0% / +8.9% | −40.8% / −32.4% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Sep 2, 2026 −0.9% | Exit below $83.67 (−0.6%) | 51% 228/448 | +2.5% / +8.9% | −35.8% / −32.4% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Sell above $84.19 (0.0%) | 58% 1009/1737 | +4.2% / +8.9% | −22.0% / −32.4% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Not on one close | 60% 74/124 | +5.0% / +8.9% | −22.6% / −32.4% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +3.9% | Exit below $82.21 (−2.4%) | 36% 401/1125 | +0.8% / +8.9% | −28.2% / −32.4% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | IN | Aug 31, 2026 −0.3% | Sell above $82.23 (−2.3%) | 46% 55/120 | +4.4% / +8.9% | −22.6% / −32.4% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Not on one close | 23% 202/862 | +0.1% / +8.9% | −37.1% / −32.4% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 +0.9% | Enter above $84.19 (+0.0%) | 31% 62/201 | +2.8% / +8.9% | −22.7% / −32.4% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | OUT | Feb 10, 2026 −1.5% | Not on one close | 58% 21/36 | +6.1% / +8.9% | −24.5% / −32.4% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Apr 2, 2026 +4.2% | Not on one close | 30% 9/30 | +7.7% / +8.9% | −33.2% / −32.4% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $82.62 (−1.9%) | 24% 213/875 | −0.9% / +8.9% | −36.8% / −32.4% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 +0.9% | Exit below $73.84 (−12.3%) | 35% 132/376 | +3.1% / +8.9% | −23.1% / −32.4% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +3.9% | Not on one close | 30% 175/580 | 0.0% / +8.9% | −34.3% / −32.4% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 +3.0% | Not on one close | 30% 37/124 | +4.4% / +8.9% | −29.7% / −32.4% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +3.9% | Not on one close | 33% 334/1019 | 0.0% / +8.9% | −31.5% / −32.4% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | OUT | Jun 29, 2026 +0.4% | Not on one close | 52% 65/126 | +6.4% / +8.9% | −24.6% / −32.4% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Jul 8, 2025 +7.1% | Not on one close | 22% 17/77 | +2.5% / +8.9% | −21.6% / −32.4% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +4.5% | Not on one close | 35% 17/48 | +0.7% / +8.9% | −22.0% / −32.4% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 +1.2% | Buys Oct 30 | 56% 24/43 | +6.8% / +8.9% | −24.5% / −32.4% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 +2.9% | Window opens Apr 1 | 55% 24/44 | +6.0% / +8.9% | −31.4% / −32.4% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | May 26, 2026 +2.0% | Window opens Oct 16 | 49% 21/43 | +6.5% / +8.9% | −25.7% / −32.4% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 +10.9% | Buys Dec 23 | 30% 13/44 | +1.7% / +8.9% | −6.5% / −32.4% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +3.9% | Buys Oct 29 | 46% 243/526 | +1.7% / +8.9% | −10.4% / −32.4% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +4.5% | Sells Jun 30 | 45% 5/11 | +3.9% / +8.9% | −13.5% / −32.4% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 +0.2% | Buys Nov 24 | 48% 192/400 | +1.6% / +8.9% | −8.8% / −32.4% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +24.8% | Not on one close | 30% 6/20 | +4.9% / +8.9% | −16.1% / −32.4% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Sells Oct 16 | 51% 1174/2284 | +2.0% / +8.9% | −28.7% / −32.4% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 +1.7% | Buys Oct 27 | 41% 141/348 | +0.7% / +8.9% | −14.0% / −32.4% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +4.5% | Sells Oct 16 | 50% 271/541 | +4.9% / +8.9% | −19.0% / −32.4% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jan 3, 2005 | Always in | – | +8.9% | −32.4% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureLow0 of 10 points
- Market swings0/3
- Past crashes0/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
Nothing on the checklist stands out.
- Beta0.24Moves about 0.2× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture36%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 36% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
- Two-year change+9%
- From 52-week high−5%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.