Guide · Momentum
Does Elder Impulse work?
Across 375 stocks, Elder Impulse cut the worst fall on 67%, beat buying and holding on risk-adjusted return on 13% and on raw return on 13%. Mixed: it helped on some kinds of stock and cost money on others, so where you use it matters.
What it predicts
Colours each day by trend (13-day EMA) and momentum (MACD histogram). Green when both rise, red when both fall.
- In on a green day: the 13-day EMA and the MACD histogram both rising.
- Out on a red day: both falling. Mixed days keep the last call.
Momentum plays bet that what has risen most over the past months tends to keep outperforming for a while. The family guide
How to use it
- It trades often (about 35 switches a year per stock), so costs, spreads and taxes eat into it more than the backtest's 0.05% per switch suggests.
- Expect to be wrong more often than right: only 29% of its calls worked. Its results come from the size of the winners, so following it means sitting through strings of small losses.
- It worked best on Energy & power (25% beat holding on risk-adjusted return) and worst on Media & telecom (0%).
- Use it as one input. Your signal combines the plays you count with the other factors you weight into one call.
When it worked
Elder Impulse did best against holding in the COVID drop (+20% median gap) and worst in the 2020–21 rally (−30%). Median gap in return against holding the same stock (per year over stretches longer than 18 months; crypto excluded).
| 2008 crash | Recovery 2009–19 | COVID drop | 2020–21 rally | 2022 bear | Since Oct 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elder Impulse | +9% | −12% | +20% | −30% | +7% | −12% |
Where it worked
By kind of stock: how often it beat holding on risk-adjusted return, and the median Sharpe ratio gap.
| Group | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Sharpe gap |
|---|---|---|
| Energy & power | 25% | -0.19 |
| Industrials & rentals | 22% | -0.31 |
| Financials | 19% | -0.23 |
| Software & devices | 18% | -0.27 |
| Micro caps | 17% | -0.40 |
| Indexes & ETFs | 14% | -0.37 |
| Semiconductors | 9% | -0.34 |
| Industrials & materials | 8% | -0.35 |
| Metals & mining | 8% | -0.31 |
| Consumer & retail | 6% | -0.40 |
| Healthcare | 6% | -0.30 |
| Real estate | 5% | -0.20 |
| Sectors | 0% | -0.44 |
| Big tech | 0% | -0.22 |
| Media & telecom | 0% | -0.28 |
Where it helped most
Sharpe ratio gap against holding, stocks with 3+ years of history
Right now
Elder Impulse holds 197 of 377 names as of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
Changed its call in the last two weeks:
Backtest results since 2005 (or as long as each stock has traded), against holding the same stock over the same dates, after 0.05% per switch. Past results don't promise future ones. This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.