Sectors
Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF)
Your signal
Hold56 / 100
Hold: 56 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−6% from its 1-year high) scores 80 and lifts it; Plays in (42%) scores 42 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | XLF | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 42% | 42 | 40 | 16.8 |
| Off the high | −6% from its 1-year high | 80 | 30 | 24.0 |
| Trend | +3% vs 200-day | 52 | 30 | 15.6 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for XLF
| Factor | XLF | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 42% | 42 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −6% from its 1-year high | 80 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | +3% vs 200-day | 52 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | +6% | 39 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 1/10 · low | 90 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on XLF- 42 of the 100 plays hold XLF right now.
- The breakout and pattern plays mostly say out.
- It closed 3% above its 200-day average and 6% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low: it fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in42 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow1 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.03×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+3%). Higher than on 41% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about XLF now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn XLF: right 9 of 26 · Out since Apr 10, 2024Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn XLF: right 18 of 58 · In since Jul 27, 2026Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn XLF: right 9 of 24 · In since Jul 31, 2026Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn XLF: right 129 of 200 · Out since Oct 9, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn XLF: right 17 of 31 · In since Oct 5, 2026Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn XLF: right 53 of 98 · Out since May 26, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn XLF: right 22 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
XLF, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on XLF
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following12 of 30 inBreakouts & channels1 of 15 inMomentum9 of 17 inMean reversion10 of 15 inVolume & money flow5 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns0 of 3 inCalendar5 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on XLF went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.4% | Exit below $54.49 (−0.6%) | 28% 181/652 | −0.6% / +5.8% | −67.9% / −82.7% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $55.55 (+1.3%) | 25% 31/123 | +4.5% / +5.8% | −32.0% / −82.7% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $55.40 (+1.1%) | 21% 86/401 | +0.2% / +5.8% | −63.7% / −82.7% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | Aug 1, 2025 +8.7% | Enter above $61.72 (+12.6%) | 20% 20/98 | +4.2% / +5.9% | −17.1% / −82.7% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Jun 12, 2026 +3.5% | Exit below $53.85 (−1.8%) | 23% 17/74 | +6.6% / +5.8% | −23.5% / −82.7% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Aug 1, 2025 +8.7% | Enter above $58.27 (+6.3%) | 24% 21/88 | +3.3% / +5.8% | −27.7% / −82.7% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | IN | Jun 30, 2026 +2.6% | Exit below $52.96 (−3.4%) | 28% 9/32 | +7.8% / +5.8% | −27.2% / −82.7% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | IN | Jun 11, 2026 +4.9% | Exit below $53.32 (−2.7%) | 14% 24/174 | +5.9% / +5.8% | −31.8% / −82.7% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Jul 2, 2026 −1.1% | Not on one close | 31% 8/26 | +6.2% / +5.8% | −47.4% / −82.7% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Jun 15, 2026 +3.1% | Exit below $53.32 (−2.7%) | 15% 17/110 | +4.5% / +5.8% | −37.2% / −82.7% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 −3.9% | Enter above $60.25 (+9.9%) | 34% 46/137 | +4.0% / +5.8% | −44.1% / −82.7% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +1.1% | Exit below $54.17 (−1.2%) | 24% 194/803 | −2.3% / +5.8% | −75.6% / −82.7% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | OUT | Jul 23, 2026 −1.5% | Enter above $55.66 (+1.5%) | 36% 96/265 | +2.4% / +5.8% | −73.3% / −82.7% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | Apr 16, 2026 +6.1% | Exit below $16.33 (−70.2%) | 14% 6/42 | +3.9% / +6.0% | −39.6% / −82.7% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | OUT | Sep 17, 2026 −1.5% | Enter above $63.90 (+16.6%) | 29% 43/149 | +3.4% / +5.8% | −34.3% / −82.7% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 +0.5% | Enter above $57.61 (+5.1%) | 33% 37/111 | +3.4% / +5.8% | −36.7% / −82.7% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $55.38 (+1.0%) | 40% 64/159 | +4.1% / +5.8% | −50.1% / −82.7% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 −3.5% | Not on one close | 39% 122/309 | +1.8% / +5.8% | −37.2% / −82.7% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $54.15 (−1.2%) | 34% 199/582 | +0.5% / +5.8% | −63.0% / −82.7% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −3.6% | Enter above $57.42 (+4.7%) | 33% 70/213 | +0.6% / +5.8% | −66.5% / −82.7% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 +1.5% | Exit below $53.46 (−2.5%) | 37% 196/533 | +0.9% / +5.8% | −61.5% / −82.7% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $54.46 (−0.6%) | 35% 48/138 | +3.0% / +5.8% | −27.0% / −82.7% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Sep 15, 2026 −3.2% | Enter above $60.40 (+10.2%) | 32% 62/195 | +3.4% / +5.8% | −48.3% / −82.7% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $55.63 (+1.5%) | 37% 57/155 | +3.6% / +5.8% | −50.3% / −82.7% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 −3.9% | Enter above $55.29 (+0.9%) | 34% 74/215 | +4.6% / +5.8% | −39.7% / −82.7% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | IN | Jul 28, 2026 −4.5% | Not on one close | 34% 94/276 | +0.7% / +5.8% | −57.4% / −82.7% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $59.51 (+8.6%) | 35% 51/147 | +4.4% / +5.8% | −44.0% / −82.7% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 +0.5% | Enter above $65.42 (+19.3%) | 34% 32/93 | +6.3% / +5.8% | −29.1% / −82.7% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Aug 21, 2026 −4.3% | Not on one close | 37% 74/200 | +3.8% / +5.8% | −40.4% / −82.7% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Apr 10, 2024 +39.2% | Not on one close | 35% 9/26 | +1.6% / +5.8% | −8.6% / −82.7% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $56.65 (+3.3%) | 36% 51/143 | +2.7% / +5.8% | −39.9% / −82.7% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −3.6% | Enter above $58.39 (+6.5%) | 34% 52/153 | +3.4% / +5.8% | −20.5% / −82.7% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $58.39 (+6.5%) | 25% 29/116 | +2.7% / +5.8% | −25.2% / −82.7% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $58.35 (+6.4%) | 30% 35/115 | +3.3% / +5.8% | −25.3% / −82.7% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | OUT | Oct 10, 2025 +6.8% | Enter above $56.05 (+2.2%) | 33% 40/123 | −0.2% / +5.8% | −42.1% / −82.7% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Aug 20, 2026 −3.4% | Enter above $56.53 (+3.1%) | 31% 52/169 | +1.9% / +5.8% | −25.7% / −82.7% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Aug 20, 2026 −3.4% | Enter above $56.17 (+2.5%) | 34% 69/204 | +2.1% / +5.8% | −26.7% / −82.7% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $56.83 (+3.7%) | 37% 63/171 | +4.5% / +5.8% | −51.5% / −82.7% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $55.47 (+1.2%) | 44% 74/169 | +5.8% / +5.8% | −39.3% / −82.7% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | Jul 27, 2026 −3.3% | Exit below $46.61 (−15.0%) | 31% 18/58 | +1.8% / +5.8% | −74.6% / −82.7% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −3.3% | Enter above $56.06 (+2.3%) | 26% 97/369 | +1.3% / +5.8% | −62.7% / −82.7% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Jul 8, 2026 +0.1% | Not on one close | 25% 60/236 | +0.5% / +5.8% | −20.4% / −82.7% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Jun 26, 2026 +2.7% | Not on one close | 37% 52/142 | +1.2% / +5.8% | −20.7% / −82.7% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $55.17 (+0.6%) | 30% 235/781 | −4.5% / +5.8% | −81.0% / −82.7% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Aug 20, 2026 −3.4% | Not on one close | 30% 14/46 | +2.5% / +5.8% | −19.7% / −82.7% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +2.7% | Enter above $53.46 (−2.5%) | 23% 7/31 | +3.9% / +5.9% | −48.4% / −82.7% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | IN | Jul 31, 2026 −3.4% | Not on one close | 38% 9/24 | +5.7% / +5.9% | −42.9% / −82.7% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | OUT | Oct 31, 2025 +6.3% | Enter above $59.44 (+8.4%) | 33% 8/24 | +5.3% / +5.9% | −22.5% / −82.7% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 +1.2% | Buy $55.21–$63.04 (+0.7%) | 19% 40/213 | +4.0% / +5.8% | −27.7% / −82.7% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | IN | Jul 31, 2023 +63.3% | Exit below $49.60 (−9.5%) | 36% 5/14 | +3.7% / +5.8% | −49.5% / −82.7% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 −1.5% | Enter above $56.58 (+3.2%) | 29% 35/120 | +3.4% / +5.8% | −24.6% / −82.7% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 +0.2% | Exit below $51.82 (−5.5%) | 35% 156/444 | +2.5% / +5.8% | −66.9% / −82.7% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 +0.2% | Exit below $54.52 (−0.6%) | 31% 238/777 | −2.7% / +5.8% | −77.5% / −82.7% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $49.97 (−8.8%) | 43% 125/294 | +2.7% / +5.8% | −66.2% / −82.7% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +74.7% | Exit below $38.09 (−30.5%) | 33% 5/15 | +6.5% / +5.8% | −42.9% / −82.7% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −5.3% | Enter above $55.87 (+1.9%) | 29% 192/666 | +0.2% / +5.8% | −48.1% / −82.7% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | OUT | Jul 24, 2026 −2.3% | Enter above $54.30 (−1.0%) | 40% 111/277 | +2.1% / +5.8% | −67.8% / −82.7% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | OUT | Sep 15, 2026 −3.2% | Enter above $60.81 (+10.9%) | 31% 60/195 | +3.8% / +5.8% | −46.5% / −82.7% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +2.7% | Enter above $53.79 (−1.9%) | 39% 28/71 | +7.8% / +5.9% | −35.1% / −82.7% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | IN | Jul 31, 2026 −3.4% | Not on one close | 36% 8/22 | +4.3% / +5.1% | −42.9% / −82.7% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | IN | Jul 31, 2026 −3.4% | Not on one close | 50% 12/24 | +7.6% / +5.9% | −42.9% / −82.7% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $53.77 (−1.9%) | 34% 123/364 | +0.4% / +5.8% | −72.3% / −82.7% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +1.7% | Not on one close | 55% 16/29 | +0.3% / +5.8% | −82.7% / −82.7% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +1.7% | Not on one close | 61% 200/329 | +4.9% / +5.8% | −11.8% / −82.7% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +1.1% | Not on one close | 65% 271/419 | +5.9% / +5.8% | −42.8% / −82.7% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 +0.2% | Buy below $52.77 (−3.7%) | 64% 129/200 | +4.8% / +5.8% | −40.3% / −82.7% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | IN | Sep 14, 2026 −3.5% | Not on one close | 61% 99/161 | +2.3% / +5.8% | −72.2% / −82.7% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Not on one close | 61% 183/300 | +4.0% / +5.8% | −68.6% / −82.7% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 −1.9% | Not on one close | 56% 33/59 | +0.3% / +5.8% | −78.4% / −82.7% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Nov 22, 2004 +255.3% | Sell above $128.88 (+135.1%) | – | +5.8% / +5.8% | −82.7% / −82.7% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Jun 16, 2020 +150.8% | Buy below $52.63 (−4.0%) | 82% 18/22 | +5.1% / +5.8% | −10.8% / −82.7% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +1.1% | Not on one close | 44% 142/321 | +0.6% / +5.8% | −74.6% / −82.7% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Sep 11, 2026 −3.9% | Exit below $54.60 (−0.4%) | 55% 240/435 | +1.8% / +5.8% | −63.3% / −82.7% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Sell above $54.82 (0.0%) | 57% 1037/1809 | +8.4% / +5.8% | −29.8% / −82.7% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | IN | Sep 10, 2026 −3.3% | Sell above $55.41 (+1.1%) | 65% 70/107 | +3.9% / +5.8% | −37.7% / −82.7% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +2.5% | Exit below $53.40 (−2.6%) | 38% 389/1037 | +0.7% / +5.8% | −73.6% / −82.7% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | IN | Aug 31, 2026 −4.7% | Sell above $54.48 (−0.6%) | 57% 72/126 | +1.7% / +5.8% | −73.4% / −82.7% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $54.82 (0.0%) | 27% 213/784 | +1.1% / +5.8% | −64.7% / −82.7% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −4.7% | Not on one close | 40% 84/208 | +2.4% / +5.8% | −58.1% / −82.7% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +1.7% | Not on one close | 55% 17/31 | +1.2% / +5.8% | −81.9% / −82.7% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Jan 28, 2021 +104.8% | Exit below $48.95 (−10.7%) | 44% 7/16 | +4.5% / +5.9% | −56.8% / −82.7% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $54.85 (+0.1%) | 27% 215/782 | −0.1% / +5.8% | −64.2% / −82.7% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 −4.0% | Enter above $53.33 (−2.7%) | 37% 134/359 | +1.8% / +5.8% | −63.8% / −82.7% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +1.1% | Not on one close | 33% 198/599 | −6.1% / +5.8% | −83.9% / −82.7% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | IN | Jul 27, 2026 −3.3% | Not on one close | 33% 36/109 | +6.5% / +6.0% | −48.3% / −82.7% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +1.7% | Not on one close | 35% 338/967 | −2.7% / +5.8% | −78.4% / −82.7% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | OUT | May 26, 2026 +6.5% | Not on one close | 54% 53/98 | +1.9% / +5.8% | −77.0% / −82.7% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −4.7% | Not on one close | 30% 30/99 | −0.4% / +5.8% | −62.6% / −82.7% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Apr 8, 2026 +7.8% | Not on one close | 55% 35/64 | +3.0% / +5.8% | −29.4% / −82.7% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 +5.9% | Buys Oct 30 | 51% 22/43 | +4.9% / +5.8% | −67.4% / −82.7% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 +1.5% | Window opens Apr 1 | 45% 20/44 | +3.4% / +5.8% | −69.7% / −82.7% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | May 1, 2026 +6.3% | Window opens Oct 16 | 49% 21/43 | +4.4% / +5.8% | −64.6% / −82.7% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 −1.1% | Buys Dec 23 | 52% 23/44 | +2.8% / +5.8% | −6.9% / −82.7% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +1.7% | Buys Oct 29 | 47% 247/526 | +1.3% / +5.8% | −30.0% / −82.7% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +2.7% | Sells Jun 30 | 55% 6/11 | +3.1% / +5.8% | −20.4% / −82.7% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −5.3% | Buys Nov 24 | 49% 195/400 | +3.0% / +5.8% | −12.7% / −82.7% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +70.3% | Not on one close | 25% 5/20 | +3.2% / +5.8% | −58.9% / −82.7% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.4% | Sells Oct 16 | 52% 1179/2284 | +4.7% / +5.8% | −52.7% / −82.7% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −1.6% | Buys Oct 27 | 44% 152/348 | +3.8% / +5.8% | −6.8% / −82.7% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +2.5% | Sells Oct 16 | 49% 264/541 | +1.7% / +5.8% | −53.9% / −82.7% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jan 3, 2005 | Always in | – | +5.8% | −82.7% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureLow1 of 10 points
- Market swings0/3
- Past crashes1/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
- It fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes.
- Beta0.84Moves about 0.8× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture55%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 55% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
- Two-year change+21%
- From 52-week high−6%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.