Breakouts & channels · daily rule · Sectors
P&F Double Top on Financial Select Sector ETF
What the play says
XLF with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding XLF over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +1.8% | +5.8% | +2.2% | +9.3% |
| Total return | +48% | +242% | +11% | +56% |
| Worst drawdown | −74.6% | −82.7% | −23.9% | −25.8% |
| Volatility | 20.2% | 28.8% | 14.2% | 18.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.10 | 0.28 | −0.04 | 0.37 |
| Time invested | 74% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 18 of 58 closed calls (31%). In calls averaged +3.5%; out calls saw XLF move +3.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | XLF moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | IN | $56.68 | now | −3.3% | open |
| Mar 6, 2026 | OUT | $49.96 | Jul 27, 2026 | +13.5% | ✕ wrong |
| May 16, 2025 | IN | $50.45 | Mar 6, 2026 | −1.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 4, 2025 | OUT | $43.22 | May 16, 2025 | +16.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 29, 2023 | IN | $33.89 | Apr 4, 2025 | +27.6% | ✓ right |
| Mar 10, 2023 | OUT | $31.00 | Nov 29, 2023 | +9.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 25, 2022 | IN | $30.88 | Mar 10, 2023 | +0.4% | ✓ right |
| Oct 13, 2022 | OUT | $29.51 | Oct 25, 2022 | +4.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 22, 2022 | IN | $30.48 | Oct 13, 2022 | −3.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 27, 2022 | OUT | $32.67 | Jul 22, 2022 | −6.7% | ✓ right |
| Mar 29, 2022 | IN | $36.57 | Apr 27, 2022 | −10.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 24, 2022 | OUT | $34.93 | Mar 29, 2022 | +4.7% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 59 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a double-top breakout: the current X column rises at least one box above the top of the previous X column.
- Out on a double-bottom breakdown: the current O column falls at least one box below the bottom of the previous O column.
- Otherwise the rule keeps the chart's last signal.
Boxes are 2% apart, and a new column needs a 3-box reversal (about 6%). Dorsey's classic box table uses fixed price bands; ChartSchool's examples use 1% boxes.
The chart is built from daily highs and lows by StockCharts' high-low method: a new box from the high wins, and the low only counts if it reverses the column.
The signal fires on the day the breakout box fills during the day. Be The Puck acts on that day's close.
Where the rules come from
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.