Sectors
Industrial Select Sector ETF (XLI)
Your signal
Hold44 / 100
Hold: 44 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−9% from its 1-year high) scores 69 and lifts it; Plays in (30%) scores 30 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | XLI | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 30% | 30 | 40 | 12.0 |
| Off the high | −9% from its 1-year high | 69 | 30 | 20.7 |
| Trend | −2% vs 200-day | 38 | 30 | 11.4 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for XLI
| Factor | XLI | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 30% | 30 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −9% from its 1-year high | 69 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | −2% vs 200-day | 38 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | +13% | 48 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 0/10 · low | 100 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on XLI- 30 of the 100 plays hold XLI right now.
- The trend-following, breakout and pattern plays mostly say out.
- It closed 2% below its 200-day average and 9% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in30 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple0.98×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−2%). Higher than on 16% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about XLI now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn XLI: right 10 of 28 · Out since Jan 16, 2024Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn XLI: right 14 of 38 · In since May 19, 2025Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn XLI: right 15 of 28 · In since Dec 29, 2023Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn XLI: right 143 of 210 · Out since Oct 5, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn XLI: right 22 of 33 · In since Sep 3, 2026Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn XLI: right 71 of 116 · Out since Jan 7, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn XLI: right 24 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
XLI, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on XLI
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following4 of 30 inBreakouts & channels1 of 15 inMomentum10 of 17 inMean reversion5 of 15 inVolume & money flow6 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns0 of 3 inCalendar4 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on XLI went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 +0.5% | Enter above $170.01 (+0.8%) | 25% 164/659 | +1.4% / +10.2% | −50.3% / −62.3% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −3.5% | Enter above $177.23 (+5.1%) | 23% 25/109 | +6.3% / +10.2% | −28.4% / −62.3% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | OUT | Aug 20, 2026 −5.9% | Enter above $172.78 (+2.4%) | 22% 85/379 | +4.1% / +10.2% | −49.3% / −62.3% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | May 19, 2026 +0.5% | Enter above $190.01 (+12.6%) | 14% 18/132 | +1.5% / +10.3% | −19.7% / −62.3% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 −1.9% | Enter above $174.53 (+3.5%) | 20% 15/75 | +6.0% / +10.2% | −30.8% / −62.3% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Aug 21, 2026 −6.2% | Enter above $184.47 (+9.4%) | 38% 34/89 | +4.9% / +10.2% | −20.6% / −62.3% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +1.0% | Enter above $172.49 (+2.3%) | 27% 11/41 | +6.8% / +10.2% | −30.1% / −62.3% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 −0.5% | Enter above $172.08 (+2.0%) | 16% 25/161 | +7.3% / +10.2% | −24.3% / −62.3% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Jun 12, 2025 +19.4% | Not on one close | 32% 11/34 | +5.5% / +10.2% | −44.6% / −62.3% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 −0.5% | Enter above $172.08 (+2.0%) | 14% 16/115 | +6.7% / +10.2% | −24.3% / −62.3% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | OUT | Aug 21, 2026 −6.2% | Enter above $179.24 (+6.3%) | 35% 49/141 | +6.1% / +10.2% | −24.9% / −62.3% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 +0.5% | Enter above $171.24 (+1.5%) | 25% 202/820 | +2.6% / +10.2% | −56.0% / −62.3% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 −0.8% | Exit below $155.69 (−7.7%) | 37% 93/254 | +7.0% / +10.2% | −30.6% / −62.3% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | Nov 16, 2022 +80.9% | Exit below $70.34 (−58.3%) | 33% 6/18 | +7.9% / +10.3% | −31.5% / −62.3% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | OUT | Aug 25, 2026 −5.2% | Enter above $209.83 (+24.4%) | 32% 47/145 | +5.4% / +10.2% | −23.5% / −62.3% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −3.4% | Enter above $179.42 (+6.4%) | 27% 32/119 | +6.6% / +10.2% | −22.8% / −62.3% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | OUT | Aug 24, 2026 −5.5% | Enter above $174.67 (+3.6%) | 37% 66/177 | +5.6% / +10.2% | −31.7% / −62.3% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Aug 25, 2026 −5.2% | Not on one close | 40% 141/355 | +3.4% / +10.2% | −23.6% / −62.3% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 +0.5% | Enter above $169.53 (+0.5%) | 32% 189/583 | +4.2% / +10.2% | −36.3% / −62.3% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −3.4% | Enter above $173.69 (+3.0%) | 37% 81/217 | +4.3% / +10.2% | −22.8% / −62.3% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +0.2% | Enter above $171.78 (+1.8%) | 38% 197/524 | +4.1% / +10.2% | −37.3% / −62.3% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Apr 16, 2026 −0.5% | Enter above $175.91 (+4.3%) | 39% 50/129 | +2.7% / +10.2% | −21.9% / −62.3% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Aug 25, 2026 −5.2% | Enter above $184.66 (+9.5%) | 32% 61/191 | +5.3% / +10.2% | −36.3% / −62.3% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −4.5% | Enter above $176.02 (+4.4%) | 37% 48/131 | +7.1% / +10.2% | −32.9% / −62.3% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Aug 25, 2026 −5.2% | Enter above $247.03 (+46.5%) | 30% 75/253 | +3.5% / +10.2% | −25.1% / −62.3% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 −1.7% | Not on one close | 38% 98/258 | +5.3% / +10.2% | −33.0% / −62.3% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | OUT | Aug 24, 2026 −5.5% | Enter above $184.04 (+9.1%) | 37% 51/137 | +7.5% / +10.2% | −34.4% / −62.3% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −2.1% | Enter above $219.23 (+30.0%) | 31% 30/97 | +7.7% / +10.2% | −20.4% / −62.3% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Jul 10, 2026 −7.0% | Enter above $168.93 (+0.2%) | 35% 73/208 | +3.5% / +10.2% | −36.3% / −62.3% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Jan 16, 2024 +57.6% | Not on one close | 36% 10/28 | +1.4% / +10.2% | −7.9% / −62.3% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −4.5% | Enter above $172.34 (+2.2%) | 35% 49/141 | +4.6% / +10.2% | −29.9% / −62.3% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Aug 19, 2026 −7.0% | Enter above $187.69 (+11.3%) | 32% 53/165 | +3.2% / +10.2% | −24.3% / −62.3% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Jul 29, 2026 −4.3% | Enter above $187.69 (+11.3%) | 30% 35/117 | +3.6% / +10.2% | −25.5% / −62.3% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Aug 25, 2026 −5.2% | Enter above $216.32 (+28.3%) | 27% 37/139 | +0.8% / +10.2% | −26.0% / −62.3% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | OUT | Jul 20, 2026 −5.1% | Not on one close | 34% 47/139 | +2.7% / +10.2% | −26.2% / −62.3% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Mar 5, 2026 −1.2% | Enter above $176.22 (+4.5%) | 34% 55/163 | +3.9% / +10.2% | −14.9% / −62.3% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Aug 19, 2026 −7.0% | Enter above $171.62 (+1.7%) | 30% 59/195 | +4.1% / +10.2% | −14.1% / −62.3% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | OUT | Aug 20, 2026 −5.9% | Enter above $171.58 (+1.7%) | 35% 68/195 | +4.2% / +10.2% | −23.7% / −62.3% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Aug 24, 2026 −5.5% | Enter above $173.93 (+3.1%) | 33% 66/201 | +3.6% / +10.2% | −32.5% / −62.3% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | May 19, 2025 +19.1% | Exit below $152.91 (−9.3%) | 37% 14/38 | +7.1% / +10.2% | −42.0% / −62.3% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Aug 19, 2026 −7.0% | Enter above $172.53 (+2.3%) | 26% 96/367 | +4.4% / +10.2% | −26.4% / −62.3% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Apr 15, 2026 −1.0% | Not on one close | 23% 58/252 | +0.8% / +10.2% | −16.8% / −62.3% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Aug 19, 2026 −7.0% | Enter above $176.81 (+4.8%) | 38% 44/116 | +1.7% / +10.2% | −16.7% / −62.3% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $170.06 (+0.8%) | 34% 240/708 | +2.0% / +10.2% | −40.1% / −62.3% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 2, 2025 +13.8% | Enter above $171.62 (+1.7%) | 12% 3/24 | +1.5% / +10.2% | −11.8% / −62.3% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +77.3% | Exit below $158.97 (−5.8%) | 40% 12/30 | +8.5% / +10.3% | −28.9% / −62.3% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | IN | Dec 29, 2023 +53.4% | Not on one close | 54% 15/28 | +8.5% / +10.3% | −42.3% / −62.3% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −3.4% | Enter above $176.76 (+4.8%) | 31% 12/39 | +5.2% / +10.3% | −18.6% / −62.3% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −4.5% | Not on one close | 22% 36/163 | +6.2% / +10.2% | −22.7% / −62.3% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | IN | Nov 30, 2022 +75.8% | Exit below $158.11 (−6.3%) | 50% 6/12 | +6.1% / +10.2% | −46.6% / −62.3% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | OUT | Jul 31, 2026 −6.0% | Enter above $182.78 (+8.4%) | 32% 45/141 | +3.9% / +10.2% | −23.2% / −62.3% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | IN | Sep 23, 2026 −0.8% | Exit below $163.82 (−2.9%) | 36% 152/426 | +6.4% / +10.2% | −26.8% / −62.3% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 +0.5% | Enter above $169.29 (+0.4%) | 29% 228/793 | +1.5% / +10.2% | −40.7% / −62.3% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | IN | Sep 28, 2026 −0.1% | Exit below $145.46 (−13.8%) | 39% 118/304 | +4.9% / +10.2% | −31.5% / −62.3% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Nov 30, 2022 +75.8% | Not on one close | 44% 4/9 | +9.5% / +10.5% | −42.3% / −62.3% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 +0.5% | Enter above $171.27 (+1.5%) | 27% 190/702 | +0.1% / +10.2% | −44.7% / −62.3% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | IN | Oct 1, 2026 +0.0% | Exit below $136.58 (−19.0%) | 38% 102/268 | +5.3% / +10.2% | −31.4% / −62.3% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | OUT | Aug 25, 2026 −5.2% | Enter above $185.48 (+10.0%) | 32% 58/181 | +5.5% / +10.2% | −32.9% / −62.3% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −3.4% | Enter above $169.33 (+0.4%) | 33% 24/73 | +6.7% / +10.3% | −32.8% / −62.3% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | IN | Dec 29, 2023 +53.4% | Not on one close | 42% 11/26 | +6.2% / +10.2% | −42.3% / −62.3% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | IN | Oct 31, 2025 +10.0% | Not on one close | 50% 17/34 | +8.3% / +10.3% | −42.3% / −62.3% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 −0.8% | Exit below $163.09 (−3.3%) | 33% 116/348 | +5.9% / +10.2% | −28.7% / −62.3% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Mar 31, 2026 +4.8% | Not on one close | 52% 15/29 | +3.3% / +10.2% | −60.6% / −62.3% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Sep 3, 2026 −3.1% | Not on one close | 60% 227/376 | +3.9% / +10.2% | −19.4% / −62.3% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Sep 22, 2026 −0.9% | Not on one close | 63% 279/444 | +4.0% / +10.2% | −45.0% / −62.3% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 −0.8% | Buy below $166.90 (−1.0%) | 68% 143/210 | +5.5% / +10.2% | −41.7% / −62.3% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | IN | Aug 26, 2026 −6.2% | Not on one close | 66% 116/177 | +5.7% / +10.2% | −53.0% / −62.3% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 +0.5% | Not on one close | 65% 193/298 | +6.8% / +10.2% | −58.6% / −62.3% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | OUT | Apr 14, 2026 −2.2% | Not on one close | 62% 47/76 | +3.2% / +10.2% | −61.8% / −62.3% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Nov 22, 2004 +738.7% | Sell above $415.92 (+146.6%) | – | +10.2% / +10.2% | −62.3% / −62.3% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Jun 16, 2020 +162.2% | Buy below $137.89 (−18.2%) | 70% 7/10 | +2.4% / +10.2% | −10.2% / −62.3% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Sep 23, 2026 −0.8% | Not on one close | 52% 165/318 | +6.4% / +10.2% | −63.4% / −62.3% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 −0.1% | Not on one close | 57% 244/430 | +3.3% / +10.2% | −57.0% / −62.3% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 +0.0% | Buy below $168.67 (0.0%) | 58% 1027/1772 | +3.9% / +10.2% | −31.2% / −62.3% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 6, 2026 −1.7% | Not on one close | 59% 65/110 | +7.0% / +10.2% | −14.9% / −62.3% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $169.83 (+0.7%) | 37% 407/1106 | +2.6% / +10.2% | −42.2% / −62.3% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | IN | Jul 31, 2026 −6.0% | Sell above $170.35 (+1.0%) | 53% 69/129 | +5.2% / +10.2% | −50.4% / −62.3% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Oct 1, 2026 +0.0% | Not on one close | 26% 205/794 | +2.4% / +10.2% | −44.3% / −62.3% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.3% | Not on one close | 36% 79/222 | +4.1% / +10.2% | −42.5% / −62.3% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | IN | Sep 3, 2026 −3.1% | Not on one close | 67% 22/33 | +3.6% / +10.2% | −60.9% / −62.3% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Mar 24, 2020 +238.2% | Exit below $148.30 (−12.1%) | 21% 6/28 | +9.5% / +10.3% | −35.4% / −62.3% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 +0.5% | Enter above $169.79 (+0.7%) | 27% 215/785 | +1.2% / +10.2% | −44.5% / −62.3% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Enter above $171.20 (+1.5%) | 32% 115/355 | +3.9% / +10.2% | −32.0% / −62.3% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 −0.8% | Not on one close | 35% 200/578 | +1.1% / +10.2% | −54.6% / −62.3% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | OUT | Aug 12, 2026 −9.0% | Not on one close | 23% 25/107 | +5.9% / +10.4% | −33.2% / −62.3% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 −0.8% | Sell $163.54–$167.75 (−0.5%) | 34% 320/953 | +0.6% / +10.2% | −50.2% / −62.3% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | OUT | Jan 7, 2026 +6.9% | Enter above $168.74 (+0.0%) | 61% 71/116 | +8.8% / +10.2% | −42.3% / −62.3% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −3.4% | Not on one close | 28% 22/78 | +3.0% / +10.2% | −17.9% / −62.3% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 −0.3% | Not on one close | 46% 33/72 | +2.7% / +10.2% | −9.3% / −62.3% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 −2.9% | Buys Oct 30 | 56% 24/43 | +8.7% / +10.2% | −42.3% / −62.3% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 27, 2026 −1.7% | Not on one close | 53% 23/43 | +8.9% / +10.2% | −42.3% / −62.3% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | Apr 29, 2026 −0.2% | Window opens Oct 16 | 51% 22/43 | +8.7% / +10.2% | −42.3% / −62.3% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 +6.4% | Buys Dec 23 | 41% 18/44 | +2.2% / +10.2% | −7.7% / −62.3% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 −0.8% | Buys Oct 29 | 47% 246/526 | +2.3% / +10.2% | −21.2% / −62.3% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +1.0% | Sells Jun 30 | 55% 6/11 | +4.5% / +10.2% | −25.5% / −62.3% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −3.5% | Buys Nov 24 | 49% 196/400 | +2.3% / +10.2% | −7.8% / −62.3% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +81.3% | Not on one close | 30% 6/20 | +5.9% / +10.2% | −35.7% / −62.3% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Sells Oct 16 | 51% 1173/2284 | +4.4% / +10.2% | −54.5% / −62.3% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 +0.2% | Buys Oct 27 | 45% 155/348 | +2.4% / +10.2% | −5.7% / −62.3% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 −0.8% | Sells Oct 16 | 48% 259/541 | +4.2% / +10.2% | −41.3% / −62.3% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jan 3, 2005 | Always in | – | +10.2% | −62.3% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureLow0 of 10 points
- Market swings0/3
- Past crashes0/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
Nothing on the checklist stands out.
- Beta0.89Moves about 0.9× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture77%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 77% as much on average.
- Two-year change+25%
- From 52-week high−9%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.