Trend following · daily rule · Sectors
Holy Grail on Industrial Select Sector ETF
XLI with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
ADX (14)
Dashed line at 30.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding XLI over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +1.4% | +10.2% | +3.2% | +12.8% |
| Total return | +36% | +724% | +17% | +82% |
| Worst drawdown | −7.9% | −62.3% | −1.9% | −21.6% |
| Volatility | 2.1% | 20.8% | 0.8% | 17.6% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.16 | 0.49 | −0.79 | 0.55 |
| Time invested | 2% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 10 of 28 closed calls (36%). In calls averaged −0.3%; out calls saw XLI move +16.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | XLI moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | OUT | $107.02 | now | +57.6% | open |
| Jan 8, 2024 | IN | $108.15 | Jan 16, 2024 | −1.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 15, 2023 | OUT | $102.72 | Jan 8, 2024 | +5.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 7, 2023 | IN | $104.66 | Aug 15, 2023 | −1.9% | ✕ wrong |
| May 29, 2019 | OUT | $64.59 | Aug 7, 2023 | +62.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 26, 2019 | IN | $65.34 | May 29, 2019 | −1.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 22, 2019 | OUT | $64.75 | Mar 26, 2019 | +0.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 11, 2019 | IN | $66.10 | Mar 22, 2019 | −2.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 10, 2014 | OUT | $44.95 | Mar 11, 2019 | +47.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 3, 2014 | IN | $46.45 | Dec 10, 2014 | −3.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 7, 2013 | OUT | $32.44 | Dec 3, 2014 | +43.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 27, 2013 | IN | $32.10 | Mar 7, 2013 | +1.0% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 29 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when, within 5 days of a pullback day, a close tops that day's high while ADX (14) is still above 30. A pullback day has ADX above 30, +DI above −DI, and a low at or below the 20-day EMA.
- Out on a close below the pullback day's low (the stop), or at or above the highest high of the 20 days before the pullback (the target).
ADX measures trend strength, and +DI above −DI says the trend is up. Descriptions of the setup ask for ADX above 30 with rising prices; reading that as +DI above −DI is Be The Puck's choice.
The 5-day entry window and the 20-day high used as the target are Be The Puck's choices. Neither number is published.
A 20-day exponential average, as most descriptions of Street Smarts use. Some write-ups use a simple one.
Raschke enters on a buy-stop during the day. Be The Puck waits for a close above the pullback day's high; that close may come on a day that also dips to the average. A close already at the target counts as no trade.
Be The Puck sells the whole position at the target.
Where the rules come from
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.