Breakouts & channels · daily rule · Sectors
P&F Double Top on Industrial Select Sector ETF
What the play says
XLI with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding XLI over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +7.1% | +10.2% | +12.0% | +12.8% |
| Total return | +341% | +724% | +76% | +82% |
| Worst drawdown | −42.0% | −62.3% | −17.2% | −21.6% |
| Volatility | 15.9% | 20.8% | 15.1% | 17.6% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.40 | 0.49 | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| Time invested | 85% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 14 of 38 closed calls (37%). In calls averaged +9.6%; out calls saw XLI move +4.2% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | XLI moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2025 | IN | $141.62 | now | +19.1% | open |
| Apr 3, 2025 | OUT | $123.54 | May 19, 2025 | +14.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 27, 2022 | IN | $86.14 | Apr 3, 2025 | +43.4% | ✓ right |
| Jan 24, 2022 | OUT | $94.78 | Jul 27, 2022 | −9.1% | ✓ right |
| May 26, 2020 | IN | $60.38 | Jan 24, 2022 | +57.0% | ✓ right |
| May 13, 2020 | OUT | $53.60 | May 26, 2020 | +12.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 25, 2020 | IN | $52.49 | May 13, 2020 | +2.1% | ✓ right |
| Feb 28, 2020 | OUT | $65.82 | Mar 25, 2020 | −20.3% | ✓ right |
| Sep 12, 2019 | IN | $70.36 | Feb 28, 2020 | −6.4% | ✕ wrong |
| May 31, 2019 | OUT | $63.95 | Sep 12, 2019 | +10.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 15, 2019 | IN | $66.80 | May 31, 2019 | −4.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 24, 2018 | OUT | $60.79 | Feb 15, 2019 | +9.9% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 39 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a double-top breakout: the current X column rises at least one box above the top of the previous X column.
- Out on a double-bottom breakdown: the current O column falls at least one box below the bottom of the previous O column.
- Otherwise the rule keeps the chart's last signal.
Boxes are 2% apart, and a new column needs a 3-box reversal (about 6%). Dorsey's classic box table uses fixed price bands; ChartSchool's examples use 1% boxes.
The chart is built from daily highs and lows by StockCharts' high-low method: a new box from the high wins, and the low only counts if it reverses the column.
The signal fires on the day the breakout box fills during the day. Be The Puck acts on that day's close.
Where the rules come from
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.