Guide · Trend following
Does Stage 2 + Mansfield RS work?
Across 374 stocks, Stage 2 + Mansfield RS cut the worst fall on 90%, beat buying and holding on risk-adjusted return on 23% and on raw return on 17%. Mainly a seatbelt: it softened the big falls on most stocks, but usually gave up return to do it.
What it predicts
Weinstein's two core buy conditions together: price above the 30-week average, and the stock beating the market on his Mansfield relative-strength line.
- In when a weekly close is above the 30-week average and the stock's strength against SPY is above its own 52-week average.
- Out when either fails.
Trend following plays bet that prices that have been rising tend to keep rising for a while, and falls tend to keep falling. The family guide
How to use it
- Expect to be wrong more often than right: only 26% of its calls worked. Its results come from the size of the winners, so following it means sitting through strings of small losses.
- It sits in cash much of the time (holding on about 45% of days), so judge it on risk-adjusted return rather than on matching a rising market.
- It worked best on Indexes & ETFs (43% beat holding on risk-adjusted return) and worst on Media & telecom (10%).
- Use it as one input. Your signal combines the plays you count with the other factors you weight into one call.
When it worked
Stage 2 + Mansfield RS did best against holding in the 2008 crash (+30% median gap) and worst in the 2020–21 rally (−31%). Median gap in return against holding the same stock (per year over stretches longer than 18 months; crypto excluded).
| 2008 crash | Recovery 2009–19 | COVID drop | 2020–21 rally | 2022 bear | Since Oct 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RS | +30% | −10% | +19% | −31% | +8% | −11% |
Where it worked
By kind of stock: how often it beat holding on risk-adjusted return, and the median Sharpe ratio gap.
| Group | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Sharpe gap |
|---|---|---|
| Indexes & ETFs | 43% | -0.05 |
| Software & devices | 32% | -0.12 |
| Real estate | 32% | -0.07 |
| Industrials & materials | 27% | -0.16 |
| Financials | 27% | -0.13 |
| Energy & power | 25% | -0.18 |
| Semiconductors | 17% | -0.07 |
| Sectors | 17% | -0.19 |
| Big tech | 17% | -0.16 |
| Healthcare | 17% | -0.15 |
| Consumer & retail | 15% | -0.20 |
| Metals & mining | 14% | -0.16 |
| Industrials & rentals | 11% | -0.18 |
| Media & telecom | 10% | -0.12 |
Where it helped most
Sharpe ratio gap against holding, stocks with 3+ years of history
Right now
Stage 2 + Mansfield RS holds 126 of 377 names as of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
Changed its call in the last two weeks:
Backtest results since 2005 (or as long as each stock has traded), against holding the same stock over the same dates, after 0.05% per switch. Past results don't promise future ones. This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.