Sectors
Materials Select Sector ETF (XLB)
Your signal
Hold49 / 100
Hold: 49 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−7% from its 1-year high) scores 77 and lifts it; Plays in (35%) scores 35 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | XLB | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 35% | 35 | 40 | 14.0 |
| Off the high | −7% from its 1-year high | 77 | 30 | 23.1 |
| Trend | −1% vs 200-day | 40 | 30 | 12.0 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for XLB
| Factor | XLB | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 35% | 35 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −7% from its 1-year high | 77 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | −1% vs 200-day | 40 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | +15% | 51 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 0/10 · low | 100 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on XLB- 35 of the 100 plays hold XLB right now.
- The trend-following, breakout and pattern plays mostly say out.
- It closed 1% below its 200-day average and 7% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in35 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple0.99×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−1%). Higher than on 22% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about XLB now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn XLB: right 5 of 10 · Out since Nov 12, 2007Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn XLB: right 15 of 48 · In since Jan 5, 2026Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn XLB: right 17 of 32 · In since Dec 31, 2025Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn XLB: right 142 of 216 · Out since Oct 13, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn XLB: right 28 of 39 · In since Oct 2, 2026Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn XLB: right 70 of 125 · Out since Jul 29, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn XLB: right 25 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
XLB, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on XLB
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following3 of 30 inBreakouts & channels2 of 15 inMomentum10 of 17 inMean reversion9 of 15 inVolume & money flow6 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns0 of 3 inCalendar5 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on XLB went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | OUT | Sep 3, 2026 −5.1% | Enter above $49.77 (+0.1%) | 27% 179/655 | +2.3% / +8.1% | −49.3% / −59.8% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 −2.0% | Enter above $51.08 (+2.7%) | 26% 30/117 | +4.9% / +8.1% | −27.8% / −59.8% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 −3.8% | Enter above $50.45 (+1.5%) | 24% 92/385 | +2.6% / +8.1% | −34.5% / −59.8% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | May 4, 2026 −1.0% | Enter above $53.92 (+8.5%) | 18% 16/88 | +0.7% / +8.2% | −28.2% / −59.8% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 −2.0% | Enter above $50.90 (+2.4%) | 19% 18/93 | +2.5% / +8.1% | −31.2% / −59.8% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −6.1% | Enter above $53.78 (+8.2%) | 23% 23/101 | +2.7% / +8.1% | −29.0% / −59.8% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +2.1% | Enter above $50.52 (+1.6%) | 24% 12/49 | +4.7% / +8.1% | −37.5% / −59.8% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 +0.1% | Enter above $50.43 (+1.4%) | 11% 26/243 | +1.6% / +8.1% | −46.1% / −59.8% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Jul 21, 2025 +12.2% | Not on one close | 24% 9/38 | +4.3% / +8.1% | −34.2% / −59.8% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 +0.1% | Enter above $50.43 (+1.4%) | 12% 24/197 | +1.7% / +8.1% | −40.6% / −59.8% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 −0.1% | Enter above $54.16 (+8.9%) | 34% 49/145 | +3.4% / +8.1% | −34.6% / −59.8% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −1.1% | Enter above $49.81 (+0.2%) | 25% 202/811 | −0.8% / +8.1% | −65.7% / −59.8% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | OUT | Sep 3, 2026 −5.1% | Enter above $49.53 (−0.4%) | 36% 98/269 | +3.0% / +8.1% | −51.9% / −59.8% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | Dec 1, 2025 +13.5% | Exit below $26.65 (−46.4%) | 21% 7/34 | +3.5% / +7.9% | −36.7% / −59.8% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $59.91 (+20.5%) | 26% 41/157 | +1.7% / +8.1% | −34.6% / −59.8% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $52.40 (+5.4%) | 24% 29/123 | +3.4% / +8.1% | −31.0% / −59.8% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $50.44 (+1.4%) | 33% 59/177 | +2.3% / +8.1% | −30.9% / −59.8% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −1.6% | Not on one close | 43% 145/339 | +2.1% / +8.1% | −28.8% / −59.8% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −2.8% | Enter above $50.22 (+1.0%) | 36% 199/559 | +4.0% / +8.1% | −40.9% / −59.8% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $51.91 (+4.4%) | 34% 72/211 | +1.4% / +8.1% | −30.2% / −59.8% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Exit below $48.31 (−2.8%) | 38% 197/522 | +2.6% / +8.1% | −49.5% / −59.8% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Apr 7, 2026 +0.1% | Not on one close | 30% 34/115 | +0.2% / +8.1% | −39.4% / −59.8% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $54.82 (+10.3%) | 29% 52/177 | +4.0% / +8.1% | −25.4% / −59.8% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 −2.0% | Enter above $50.81 (+2.2%) | 32% 48/151 | +4.8% / +8.1% | −30.6% / −59.8% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 −2.0% | Enter above $79.38 (+59.7%) | 33% 79/241 | +3.1% / +8.1% | −33.8% / −59.8% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | OUT | Aug 18, 2026 −3.5% | Enter above $49.97 (+0.5%) | 39% 103/267 | +1.4% / +8.1% | −52.2% / −59.8% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $54.26 (+9.1%) | 31% 44/144 | +4.8% / +8.1% | −30.9% / −59.8% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −0.8% | Enter above $62.03 (+24.8%) | 26% 31/117 | +2.6% / +8.1% | −34.2% / −59.8% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −4.8% | Not on one close | 31% 78/249 | −0.9% / +8.1% | −59.5% / −59.8% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Nov 12, 2007 +276.6% | Not on one close | 50% 5/10 | +1.7% / +8.1% | −9.1% / −59.8% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −2.8% | Enter above $50.88 (+2.3%) | 37% 49/133 | +4.0% / +8.1% | −30.6% / −59.8% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 −3.8% | Enter above $52.82 (+6.2%) | 28% 47/165 | +0.6% / +8.1% | −34.6% / −59.8% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −2.8% | Enter above $53.94 (+8.5%) | 27% 27/99 | +3.0% / +8.1% | −26.4% / −59.8% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $56.74 (+14.1%) | 27% 31/115 | +0.2% / +8.1% | −32.5% / −59.8% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 +0.5% | Not on one close | 37% 45/122 | +1.3% / +8.1% | −31.5% / −59.8% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Apr 29, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $51.53 (+3.6%) | 25% 44/177 | −0.4% / +8.1% | −38.2% / −59.8% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Aug 18, 2026 −3.5% | Enter above $50.76 (+2.1%) | 33% 68/205 | +2.0% / +8.1% | −22.9% / −59.8% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −2.8% | Enter above $50.53 (+1.6%) | 34% 64/189 | +2.6% / +8.1% | −32.6% / −59.8% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $50.59 (+1.7%) | 34% 68/199 | +3.2% / +8.1% | −36.3% / −59.8% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | Jan 5, 2026 +8.1% | Exit below $47.54 (−4.4%) | 31% 15/48 | +4.5% / +8.1% | −50.8% / −59.8% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −2.8% | Enter above $51.04 (+2.7%) | 29% 97/339 | +4.5% / +8.1% | −32.0% / −59.8% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Apr 15, 2026 −2.4% | Not on one close | 23% 53/227 | −1.1% / +8.1% | −37.2% / −59.8% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Aug 14, 2026 −4.9% | Enter above $49.40 (−0.6%) | 37% 35/94 | +1.2% / +8.1% | −20.6% / −59.8% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $49.17 (−1.1%) | 30% 239/796 | −3.1% / +8.1% | −64.1% / −59.8% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Feb 21, 2025 +16.6% | Not on one close | 22% 7/32 | +0.6% / +8.1% | −19.1% / −59.8% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | IN | Dec 31, 2025 +11.0% | Exit below $43.63 (−12.3%) | 25% 9/36 | +3.7% / +8.2% | −33.9% / −59.8% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | IN | Dec 31, 2025 +11.0% | Not on one close | 53% 17/32 | +6.1% / +8.2% | −37.1% / −59.8% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 −2.6% | Enter above $48.51 (−2.4%) | 41% 12/29 | +3.5% / +8.2% | −28.2% / −59.8% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 −2.8% | Not on one close | 17% 36/207 | +2.2% / +8.1% | −36.5% / −59.8% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | IN | Jan 31, 2023 +26.2% | Exit below $45.41 (−8.7%) | 36% 5/14 | +3.4% / +8.1% | −42.6% / −59.8% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | OUT | May 8, 2026 −2.8% | Enter above $53.04 (+6.7%) | 32% 42/133 | +3.0% / +8.1% | −30.5% / −59.8% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $47.61 (−4.2%) | 36% 162/448 | +3.1% / +8.1% | −40.9% / −59.8% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $49.41 (−0.6%) | 32% 253/802 | +0.8% / +8.1% | −53.0% / −59.8% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $45.24 (−9.0%) | 42% 128/302 | +2.2% / +8.1% | −55.5% / −59.8% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Nov 28, 2025 +13.2% | Not on one close | 53% 9/17 | +5.8% / +8.0% | −47.7% / −59.8% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Aug 27, 2026 −6.2% | Enter above $50.50 (+1.6%) | 26% 184/708 | −2.5% / +8.1% | −54.6% / −59.8% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | OUT | Sep 3, 2026 −5.1% | Enter above $47.87 (−3.7%) | 37% 103/275 | +2.4% / +8.1% | −40.7% / −59.8% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −1.6% | Enter above $55.14 (+10.9%) | 28% 50/177 | +3.7% / +8.1% | −25.4% / −59.8% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +2.1% | Enter above $48.84 (−1.8%) | 36% 31/87 | +6.1% / +8.2% | −32.5% / −59.8% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | IN | Dec 31, 2025 +11.0% | Not on one close | 39% 11/28 | +3.6% / +7.5% | −44.7% / −59.8% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | IN | Dec 31, 2025 +11.0% | Not on one close | 50% 16/32 | +4.8% / +8.2% | −43.4% / −59.8% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $48.79 (−1.9%) | 34% 123/358 | +1.6% / +8.1% | −47.7% / −59.8% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Mar 23, 2026 +5.4% | Not on one close | 61% 19/31 | +3.9% / +8.1% | −54.7% / −59.8% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Sep 17, 2026 −1.5% | Not on one close | 58% 200/342 | +1.5% / +8.1% | −20.8% / −59.8% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Sep 22, 2026 −1.6% | Not on one close | 60% 251/420 | +4.7% / +8.1% | −18.9% / −59.8% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Buy below $48.29 (−2.9%) | 66% 142/216 | +6.5% / +8.1% | −36.5% / −59.8% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | IN | Sep 14, 2026 −1.1% | Not on one close | 63% 108/171 | +5.4% / +8.1% | −54.0% / −59.8% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | IN | Sep 2, 2026 −5.7% | Not on one close | 63% 187/299 | +5.4% / +8.1% | −50.1% / −59.8% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | IN | Sep 9, 2026 −2.8% | Not on one close | 60% 40/67 | +3.8% / +8.1% | −55.1% / −59.8% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Nov 22, 2004 +447.9% | Sell above $121.89 (+145.1%) | – | +8.1% / +8.1% | −59.8% / −59.8% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Apr 9, 2025 +26.6% | Not on one close | 71% 10/14 | +3.5% / +8.1% | −3.9% / −59.8% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $49.46 (−0.5%) | 45% 147/328 | +0.9% / +8.1% | −59.2% / −59.8% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 +1.5% | Not on one close | 57% 244/428 | +5.1% / +8.1% | −32.8% / −59.8% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Buy below $49.72 (0.0%) | 56% 1016/1804 | +2.7% / +8.1% | −27.6% / −59.8% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | IN | Sep 10, 2026 −1.6% | Sell above $50.21 (+1.0%) | 63% 72/115 | +6.2% / +8.1% | −22.5% / −59.8% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.8% | Exit below $48.23 (−3.0%) | 38% 404/1055 | +2.0% / +8.1% | −45.9% / −59.8% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +2.1% | Sell above $49.68 (−0.1%) | 63% 78/123 | +3.9% / +8.1% | −54.4% / −59.8% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 +0.6% | Not on one close | 27% 216/788 | +3.3% / +8.1% | −47.6% / −59.8% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −4.1% | Not on one close | 37% 78/213 | +0.8% / +8.1% | −41.5% / −59.8% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.8% | Not on one close | 72% 28/39 | +6.9% / +8.1% | −59.8% / −59.8% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Jan 15, 2025 +18.0% | Not on one close | 30% 3/10 | +6.9% / +8.2% | −59.8% / −59.8% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $49.53 (−0.4%) | 28% 238/840 | +0.7% / +8.1% | −48.7% / −59.8% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | OUT | Sep 2, 2026 −5.7% | Enter above $49.44 (−0.6%) | 36% 132/363 | +1.8% / +8.1% | −38.9% / −59.8% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Not on one close | 36% 222/616 | −2.1% / +8.1% | −59.0% / −59.8% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 +2.4% | Not on one close | 32% 50/155 | +0.2% / +8.2% | −47.7% / −59.8% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Not on one close | 34% 347/1017 | +0.5% / +8.1% | −57.5% / −59.8% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | OUT | Jul 29, 2026 −3.5% | Not on one close | 56% 70/125 | +4.5% / +8.1% | −52.1% / −59.8% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Jul 8, 2026 −0.4% | Not on one close | 32% 31/96 | +4.8% / +8.1% | −25.9% / −59.8% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Oct 21, 2025 +14.3% | Not on one close | 45% 18/40 | +2.7% / +8.1% | −4.9% / −59.8% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 −2.6% | Buys Oct 30 | 58% 25/43 | +9.3% / +8.1% | −37.1% / −59.8% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Window opens Apr 1 | 66% 29/44 | +9.2% / +8.1% | −37.1% / −59.8% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | Apr 28, 2026 −2.5% | Window opens Oct 16 | 56% 24/43 | +8.8% / +8.1% | −37.1% / −59.8% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 +8.1% | Buys Dec 23 | 43% 19/44 | +2.6% / +8.1% | −8.7% / −59.8% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Buys Oct 29 | 47% 249/526 | +2.5% / +8.1% | −30.1% / −59.8% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +2.1% | Sells Jun 30 | 45% 5/11 | +4.7% / +8.1% | −21.0% / −59.8% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −4.8% | Buys Nov 24 | 50% 201/400 | +3.0% / +8.1% | −6.7% / −59.8% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +37.5% | Not on one close | 30% 6/20 | +3.3% / +8.1% | −40.8% / −59.8% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 +0.6% | Sells Oct 16 | 53% 1204/2284 | +6.2% / +8.1% | −51.6% / −59.8% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −0.8% | Buys Oct 27 | 46% 161/348 | +2.7% / +8.1% | −6.5% / −59.8% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.8% | Sells Oct 16 | 50% 268/541 | +3.5% / +8.1% | −48.9% / −59.8% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jan 3, 2005 | Always in | – | +8.1% | −59.8% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureLow0 of 10 points
- Market swings0/3
- Past crashes0/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
Nothing on the checklist stands out.
- Beta0.71Moves about 0.7× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture118%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 118% as much on average.
- Two-year change+8%
- From 52-week high−7%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.