Trend following · daily rule · Sectors
Holy Grail on Materials Select Sector ETF
XLB with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
ADX (14)
Dashed line at 30.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding XLB over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +1.7% | +8.1% | +3.9% | +6.1% |
| Total return | +45% | +442% | +21% | +34% |
| Worst drawdown | −9.1% | −59.8% | 0.0% | −24.7% |
| Volatility | 1.8% | 23.1% | 0.1% | 19.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.03 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Time invested | 0% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 0.4 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 5 of 10 closed calls (50%). In calls averaged +0.2%; out calls saw XLB move +8.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | XLB moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2007 | OUT | $13.20 | now | +276.6% | open |
| Oct 23, 2007 | IN | $13.93 | Nov 12, 2007 | −5.2% | ✕ wrong |
| May 5, 2006 | OUT | $11.09 | Oct 23, 2007 | +25.6% | ✕ wrong |
| May 1, 2006 | IN | $10.80 | May 5, 2006 | +2.7% | ✓ right |
| Dec 28, 2005 | OUT | $9.75 | May 1, 2006 | +10.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 27, 2005 | IN | $9.66 | Dec 28, 2005 | +0.9% | ✓ right |
| Dec 22, 2005 | OUT | $9.69 | Dec 27, 2005 | −0.3% | ✓ right |
| Dec 21, 2005 | IN | $9.60 | Dec 22, 2005 | +1.0% | ✓ right |
| Dec 21, 2004 | OUT | $9.27 | Dec 21, 2005 | +3.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 13, 2004 | IN | $9.12 | Dec 21, 2004 | +1.7% | ✓ right |
| Nov 22, 2004 | OUT | $9.08 | Dec 13, 2004 | +0.4% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 11 of 11 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when, within 5 days of a pullback day, a close tops that day's high while ADX (14) is still above 30. A pullback day has ADX above 30, +DI above −DI, and a low at or below the 20-day EMA.
- Out on a close below the pullback day's low (the stop), or at or above the highest high of the 20 days before the pullback (the target).
ADX measures trend strength, and +DI above −DI says the trend is up. Descriptions of the setup ask for ADX above 30 with rising prices; reading that as +DI above −DI is Be The Puck's choice.
The 5-day entry window and the 20-day high used as the target are Be The Puck's choices. Neither number is published.
A 20-day exponential average, as most descriptions of Street Smarts use. Some write-ups use a simple one.
Raschke enters on a buy-stop during the day. Be The Puck waits for a close above the pullback day's high; that close may come on a day that also dips to the average. A close already at the target counts as no trade.
Be The Puck sells the whole position at the target.
Where the rules come from
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.