Guide · Momentum
Does Stocks on the Move work?
Across 375 stocks, Stocks on the Move cut the worst fall on 92%, beat buying and holding on risk-adjusted return on 17% and on raw return on 13%. Mainly a seatbelt: it softened the big falls on most stocks, but usually gave up return to do it.
What it predicts
Clenow scores momentum as the steepness of a 90-day trend line times how straight it is. Buy only when the market is above its 200-day.
- In when the momentum score is positive, the stock is above its 100-day average, it hasn't moved 15% in a day in the last 90 days, and SPY is above its 200-day.
- Out when the score turns negative, the stock drops below its 100-day, or a 15% gap appears.
Momentum plays bet that what has risen most over the past months tends to keep outperforming for a while. The family guide
How to use it
- Expect to be wrong more often than right: only 20% of its calls worked. Its results come from the size of the winners, so following it means sitting through strings of small losses.
- It worked best on Real estate (47% beat holding on risk-adjusted return) and worst on Micro caps (0%).
- Use it as one input. Your signal combines the plays you count with the other factors you weight into one call.
When it worked
Stocks on the Move did best against holding in the 2008 crash (+37% median gap) and worst in the 2020–21 rally (−30%). Median gap in return against holding the same stock (per year over stretches longer than 18 months; crypto excluded).
| 2008 crash | Recovery 2009–19 | COVID drop | 2020–21 rally | 2022 bear | Since Oct 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks on the Move | +37% | −10% | +20% | −30% | +12% | −12% |
Where it worked
By kind of stock: how often it beat holding on risk-adjusted return, and the median Sharpe ratio gap.
| Group | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Sharpe gap |
|---|---|---|
| Real estate | 47% | -0.06 |
| Financials | 42% | -0.06 |
| Media & telecom | 40% | -0.08 |
| Healthcare | 28% | -0.19 |
| Consumer & retail | 18% | -0.27 |
| Energy & power | 15% | -0.18 |
| Indexes & ETFs | 14% | -0.04 |
| Industrials & materials | 14% | -0.17 |
| Semiconductors | 13% | -0.26 |
| Industrials & rentals | 11% | -0.11 |
| Software & devices | 9% | -0.29 |
| Sectors | 8% | -0.19 |
| Metals & mining | 6% | -0.33 |
| Big tech | 0% | -0.33 |
| Micro caps | 0% | -0.51 |
Where it helped most
Sharpe ratio gap against holding, stocks with 3+ years of history
Right now
Stocks on the Move holds 121 of 377 names as of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
Changed its call in the last two weeks:
Backtest results since 2005 (or as long as each stock has traded), against holding the same stock over the same dates, after 0.05% per switch. Past results don't promise future ones. This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.