Metals & mining

Franco-Nevada (FNV)

C$346.53 −0.9% on the day·+22.0% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Hold55 / 100

Hold: 55 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−9% from its 1-year high) scores 69 and lifts it; Plays in (41%) scores 41 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	FNV	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	41%	41	40	16.4
Off the high	−9% from its 1-year high	69	30	20.7
Trend	+5% vs 200-day	59	30	17.7

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for FNV

Factor	FNV	Points	What it is
Plays in	41%	41	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+16% · 9 analysts	52	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.7 · buy	67	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	32.8×	36	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	26.0×	15	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	9.18	5	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	20.3×	5	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	5.7×	29	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	0.7%	21	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+43%	68	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+58%	89	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	64%	97	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	20%	69	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	–	–	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0.
Off the high	−9% from its 1-year high	69	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+5% vs 200-day	59	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+22%	58	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	2/10 · low	80	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on FNV

41 of the 100 plays hold FNV right now.
The breakout and pattern plays mostly say out.
It closed 5% above its 200-day average and 9% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low: it moves about 1.2× its index and is up 107% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$403.48, 16% above the close (9 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in41 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow2 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.05×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+5%). Higher than on 44% of days since 2008. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about FNV now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn FNV: right 28 of 54 · Out since Sep 28, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn FNV: right 41 of 88 · In since Aug 5, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn FNV: right 6 of 24 · In since Oct 31, 2024 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionIN64% of 53,095 calls rightOn FNV: right 95 of 157 · In since Sep 28, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn FNV: right 20 of 33 · In since Apr 30, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn FNV: right 64 of 126 · Out since Aug 28, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn FNV: right 20 of 37 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

FNV, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved FNV lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P/TSX; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Wed Sep 30−3.1% against the S&P/TSX1.6× a normal day

FNV −3.8%, the S&P/TSX −0.6% that session; −2.0% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on FNV was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for FNV starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.6%. The 50 other Metals & mining stocks Be The Puck covers moved −1.2% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Mon Sep 28−3.5% against the S&P/TSX1.8× a normal day

FNV −4.4%, the S&P/TSX −0.9% that session; −5.7% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on FNV was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for FNV starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.9%. The 50 other Metals & mining stocks Be The Puck covers moved −4.2% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Mon Sep 21−2.3% against the S&P/TSX1.1× a normal day

FNV −1.7%, the S&P/TSX +0.6% that session; −2.4% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on FNV was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for FNV starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved +0.6%. The 50 other Metals & mining stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.4% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on FNV

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following11 of 30 in Breakouts & channels2 of 15 in Momentum9 of 17 in Mean reversion9 of 15 in Volume & money flow5 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns0 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on FNV went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2007. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above C$350.89 (+1.3%)	28% 151/549	+3.3% / +18.1%	−44.1% / −47.8%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Aug 7, 2026 +4.3%	Exit below C$328.73 (−5.1%)	27% 29/109	+6.6% / +19.5%	−43.7% / −43.6%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.3%	Enter above C$350.19 (+1.1%)	22% 79/352	+2.1% / +19.0%	−39.8% / −47.8%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.3%	Not on one close	16% 28/174	−1.4% / +20.8%	−60.7% / −43.6%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Aug 7, 2026 +4.3%	Exit below C$328.80 (−5.1%)	17% 15/88	+3.0% / +18.6%	−52.7% / −43.6%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +1.7%	Enter above C$350.71 (+1.2%)	27% 22/82	+6.7% / +20.2%	−38.2% / −43.6%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 −4.8%	Exit below C$329.52 (−4.9%)	26% 9/35	+8.7% / +18.2%	−42.8% / −43.6%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Aug 5, 2026 +9.3%	Exit below C$330.50 (−4.6%)	10% 19/200	+3.3% / +18.4%	−51.4% / −43.6%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 −5.5%	Not on one close	35% 9/26	+9.9% / +18.4%	−44.6% / −43.6%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Aug 6, 2026 +7.0%	Exit below C$330.50 (−4.6%)	11% 15/135	+6.1% / +19.9%	−46.0% / −43.6%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +1.7%	Enter above C$400.38 (+15.5%)	37% 47/128	+2.7% / +18.4%	−47.9% / −47.8%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above C$348.44 (+0.6%)	28% 191/690	+4.8% / +18.2%	−40.1% / −47.8%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 −4.8%	Enter above C$473.77 (+36.7%)	37% 79/212	+5.7% / +17.6%	−56.5% / −47.3%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Sep 20, 2024 +103.0%	Not on one close	18% 6/34	+7.3% / +17.0%	−58.2% / −43.6%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +1.7%	Enter above C$377.71 (+9.0%)	34% 41/119	+5.8% / +18.1%	−50.6% / −47.8%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Aug 7, 2026 +4.3%	Exit below C$326.16 (−5.9%)	32% 32/101	+6.8% / +18.1%	−40.0% / −47.8%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.3%	Enter above C$377.34 (+8.9%)	33% 48/145	+2.7% / +19.0%	−60.3% / −47.8%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +3.2%	Not on one close	41% 103/252	+5.0% / +19.0%	−48.8% / −47.8%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 −5.6%	Enter above C$384.80 (+11.0%)	38% 178/472	+7.7% / +19.5%	−56.3% / −47.8%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above C$378.39 (+9.2%)	40% 76/191	+2.6% / +18.0%	−53.8% / −47.8%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.9%	Exit below C$313.33 (−9.6%)	43% 186/429	+15.1% / +19.9%	−33.3% / −47.8%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above C$364.92 (+5.3%)	32% 39/123	−0.3% / +18.1%	−44.0% / −47.8%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +3.2%	Enter above C$384.65 (+11.0%)	29% 50/171	+3.7% / +17.0%	−47.4% / −47.8%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +1.7%	Enter above C$354.38 (+2.3%)	37% 73/197	+7.1% / +19.0%	−32.2% / −47.8%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.3%	Enter above C$384.13 (+10.9%)	32% 61/193	+0.7% / +17.0%	−45.0% / −47.8%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Jul 22, 2026 +15.0%	Not on one close	40% 81/203	+7.1% / +17.6%	−39.8% / −47.3%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +3.2%	Enter above C$373.86 (+7.9%)	34% 51/152	+6.1% / +19.0%	−40.7% / −47.8%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Aug 10, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below C$277.58 (−19.9%)	33% 29/89	+6.8% / +19.0%	−47.1% / −47.8%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 −5.0%	Not on one close	36% 62/174	+8.4% / +19.4%	−30.4% / −43.6%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −0.6%	Not on one close	52% 28/54	+2.9% / +17.0%	−19.0% / −47.8%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above C$378.39 (+9.2%)	40% 41/103	+8.7% / +19.0%	−36.7% / −47.8%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above C$378.39 (+9.2%)	32% 38/120	+2.1% / +17.4%	−37.0% / −47.8%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above C$378.74 (+9.3%)	37% 28/76	+5.6% / +17.4%	−29.2% / −47.8%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +3.2%	Enter above C$376.04 (+8.5%)	28% 25/88	+1.6% / +19.0%	−43.3% / −47.8%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above C$366.99 (+5.9%)	37% 38/104	+6.3% / +19.0%	−49.2% / −47.8%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above C$382.08 (+10.3%)	35% 47/136	+2.3% / +18.2%	−31.1% / −47.8%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −4.5%	Enter above C$385.13 (+11.1%)	34% 61/178	+4.2% / +19.1%	−39.7% / −47.8%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.3%	Enter above C$376.04 (+8.5%)	35% 60/172	+2.7% / +18.5%	−61.8% / −47.8%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.3%	Enter above C$370.43 (+6.9%)	35% 56/161	+2.2% / +19.0%	−51.9% / −47.8%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Aug 5, 2026 +9.3%	Exit below C$305.81 (−11.8%)	47% 41/88	+7.5% / +19.1%	−43.8% / −47.8%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.3%	Enter above C$352.95 (+1.9%)	30% 88/291	+3.0% / +18.3%	−47.0% / −47.8%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 −4.8%	Not on one close	25% 46/184	−1.6% / +19.0%	−52.4% / −47.8%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Jan 30, 2026 +9.3%	Not on one close	40% 44/110	+2.2% / +18.2%	−26.8% / −47.8%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.3%	Exit below C$336.42 (−2.9%)	36% 219/607	+4.3% / +19.6%	−37.5% / −47.8%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	May 11, 2023 +71.7%	Not on one close	33% 8/24	+2.6% / +16.9%	−13.5% / −47.3%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2024 +90.7%	Exit below C$269.69 (−22.2%)	38% 9/24	+8.8% / +18.3%	−54.8% / −43.6%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2024 +90.7%	Not on one close	25% 6/24	+7.5% / +18.3%	−55.7% / −43.6%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.3%	Enter above C$299.87 (−13.5%)	30% 11/37	+4.5% / +18.3%	−49.8% / −43.6%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Aug 26, 2026 −6.4%	Exit below C$326.78 (−5.7%)	15% 25/169	−4.1% / +18.8%	−64.7% / −47.8%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 −4.8%	Exit below C$324.41 (−6.4%)	22% 6/27	+3.4% / +20.2%	−38.0% / −43.6%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.9%	Exit below C$339.78 (−1.9%)	28% 29/104	+5.4% / +17.8%	−47.0% / −47.8%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 −3.6%	Enter above C$366.20 (+5.7%)	35% 128/367	+5.9% / +17.0%	−49.3% / −47.8%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.9%	Exit below C$339.76 (−2.0%)	30% 206/677	+2.1% / +17.0%	−45.2% / −47.8%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −5.5%	Enter above C$502.60 (+45.0%)	42% 111/263	+7.5% / +17.2%	−56.7% / −47.8%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2024 +98.7%	Not on one close	22% 2/9	+9.0% / +17.4%	−49.3% / −43.6%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −5.5%	Enter above C$387.76 (+11.9%)	29% 156/532	+0.2% / +19.0%	−48.5% / −47.8%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −3.9%	Enter above C$628.93 (+81.5%)	39% 90/230	+6.5% / +19.0%	−54.5% / −47.8%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +3.2%	Enter above C$386.31 (+11.5%)	29% 48/164	+4.3% / +19.0%	−47.1% / −47.8%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +2.3%	Enter above C$321.47 (−7.2%)	42% 30/71	+10.9% / +18.3%	−32.0% / −43.6%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2024 +90.7%	Not on one close	26% 6/23	+7.0% / +17.6%	−55.7% / −43.6%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Oct 31, 2024 +90.7%	Not on one close	38% 12/32	+9.5% / +18.3%	−48.1% / −43.6%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −3.9%	Enter above C$406.87 (+17.4%)	36% 103/286	+6.9% / +17.6%	−48.5% / −47.3%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 −6.2%	Not on one close	61% 22/36	+11.7% / +19.5%	−40.5% / −47.8%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +0.8%	Not on one close	56% 163/292	+3.7% / +18.4%	−24.7% / −43.6%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 −0.9%	Not on one close	56% 189/336	+2.1% / +18.4%	−38.5% / −43.6%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 −0.6%	Sell above C$354.53 (+2.3%)	61% 95/157	+8.9% / +19.1%	−29.2% / −47.8%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Jul 29, 2026 +15.1%	Not on one close	61% 86/140	+11.0% / +19.3%	−39.9% / −47.8%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.3%	Not on one close	58% 136/233	+7.9% / +19.5%	−41.3% / −47.8%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Apr 30, 2026 +11.0%	Not on one close	66% 44/67	+15.1% / +19.5%	−39.2% / −47.8%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2008 +1,957.8%	Sell above C$798.80 (+130.5%)	–	+18.4% / +18.4%	−43.6% / −43.6%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Feb 9, 2026 +3.5%	Buy below C$314.78 (−9.2%)	62% 15/24	+4.6% / +17.6%	−5.8% / −47.3%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.9%	Not on one close	48% 130/273	+3.2% / +18.2%	−39.3% / −47.8%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 −7.0%	Not on one close	58% 204/349	+4.9% / +18.2%	−44.7% / −47.8%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +1.7%	Buy below C$346.53 (0.0%)	59% 948/1618	+8.2% / +19.5%	−33.0% / −47.8%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.3%	Sell above C$371.50 (+7.2%)	54% 51/95	+8.8% / +18.4%	−34.5% / −43.6%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −0.9%	Not on one close	37% 333/898	+6.5% / +17.0%	−42.8% / −47.8%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.3%	Sell above C$345.63 (−0.3%)	52% 57/109	+7.1% / +18.2%	−38.1% / −47.8%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above C$346.53 (+0.0%)	29% 173/605	+6.9% / +19.1%	−47.1% / −47.8%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Jul 23, 2026 +15.0%	Not on one close	40% 75/186	+6.0% / +19.0%	−46.9% / −47.8%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Apr 30, 2026 +11.0%	Not on one close	61% 20/33	+10.3% / +19.5%	−39.9% / −47.8%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Jan 29, 2024 +142.1%	Not on one close	40% 30/75	+12.3% / +20.2%	−36.2% / −43.6%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −5.5%	Enter above C$357.04 (+3.0%)	30% 176/583	+10.4% / +17.6%	−41.4% / −47.8%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above C$401.21 (+15.8%)	33% 109/331	+5.9% / +19.1%	−53.1% / −47.8%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 −6.1%	Exit below C$346.53 (0.0%)	35% 179/516	+3.6% / +19.0%	−56.2% / −47.8%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Jul 16, 2026 +24.6%	Not on one close	28% 20/71	+8.4% / +19.2%	−48.3% / −43.6%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.3%	Exit below C$347.70 (+0.3%)	37% 287/776	+9.8% / +18.8%	−47.6% / −47.8%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 −6.2%	Not on one close	51% 64/126	+11.6% / +19.5%	−44.3% / −47.8%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Jun 5, 2026 +14.2%	Not on one close	40% 38/94	+6.6% / +19.5%	−49.6% / −47.8%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jul 8, 2025 +61.7%	Not on one close	35% 16/46	+1.6% / +19.0%	−19.1% / −47.8%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +11.0%	Buys Oct 30	54% 20/37	+13.9% / +19.5%	−40.3% / −47.8%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Window opens Apr 1	51% 19/37	+13.8% / +17.0%	−42.6% / −47.8%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 21, 2026 +2.7%	Window opens Oct 16	49% 18/37	+8.9% / +17.0%	−48.9% / −47.8%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +19.0%	Buys Dec 23	47% 18/38	+4.4% / +19.5%	−7.5% / −47.8%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +0.8%	Buys Oct 29	50% 224/452	+4.4% / +19.5%	−48.9% / −47.8%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +2.3%	Sells Jun 30	44% 4/9	+4.9% / +19.5%	−21.7% / −47.8%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −5.7%	Buys Nov 24	50% 168/336	+4.1% / +19.5%	−15.0% / −47.8%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +94.8%	Not on one close	33% 6/18	+13.5% / +19.3%	−43.6% / −47.8%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	51% 1012/1967	+13.3% / +19.5%	−47.7% / −47.8%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −4.5%	Buys Oct 27	50% 151/300	+2.0% / +19.5%	−17.1% / −47.8%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +1.7%	Sells Oct 16	48% 225/466	+5.0% / +19.5%	−62.1% / −47.8%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Dec 3, 2007	Always in	–	+19.4%	−47.8%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow2 of 10 points

Market swings1/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up1/2

It moves about 1.2× its index.
It is up 107% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Mar 2020

FNV−21%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Sep 2022 · back to its old high Nov 2022

FNV−12%

TSX−14%

Beta1.17Moves about 1.2× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture−7%In months the TSX fell, this fell -7% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+107%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−9%
Interest cover4,721.0×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Gold · Franco-Nevada Corporation operates as a royalty and stream company focused on precious metals in South America, Central America, Mexico, the United States, Canada, Australia, Europe, and Africa. The company operates through Precious Metals, Other Mining and Energy segments. It also manages its portfolio with a focus on precious metals, such as gold, silver, and platinum group metals; and engages in the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids through a third-party marketing agent.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$66.8B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$2.3B	Total sales.
P/E ratio	32.8×	Buyers pay C$33 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	26.0×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	5.7×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	64.2%	Keeps 64¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+58.2%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+43.0%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	19.9%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$470M	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$7.6B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$0	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$1.0B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.00×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	4,721.0×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$403.48	16% above the close, from 9 analysts (range C$270.95 to C$481.33).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.71%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

FNV: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Metals & mining: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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