Mean reversion · daily rule · Metals & mining
Bollinger Reversion on Franco-Nevada
What the play says
FNV with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2008
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding FNV over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2008 | Hold, since 2008 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +8.9% | +19.1% | +8.0% | +16.5% |
| Total return | +391% | +2,507% | +47% | +114% |
| Worst drawdown | −29.2% | −47.8% | −26.7% | −33.8% |
| Volatility | 17.7% | 35.4% | 14.2% | 29.4% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.49 | 0.63 | 0.35 | 0.54 |
| Time invested | 22% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 8.4 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 95 of 157 closed calls (61%). In calls averaged +2.0%; out calls saw FNV move +3.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | FNV moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | IN | C$348.78 | now | −0.6% | open |
| Jun 15, 2026 | OUT | C$310.46 | Sep 28, 2026 | +12.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 9, 2026 | IN | C$294.50 | Jun 15, 2026 | +5.4% | ✓ right |
| May 13, 2026 | OUT | C$328.63 | Jun 9, 2026 | −10.4% | ✓ right |
| Apr 28, 2026 | IN | C$316.86 | May 13, 2026 | +3.7% | ✓ right |
| Mar 31, 2026 | OUT | C$343.16 | Apr 28, 2026 | −7.7% | ✓ right |
| Mar 19, 2026 | IN | C$315.76 | Mar 31, 2026 | +8.7% | ✓ right |
| Nov 10, 2025 | OUT | C$271.12 | Mar 19, 2026 | +16.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 21, 2025 | IN | C$268.00 | Nov 10, 2025 | +1.2% | ✓ right |
| Jul 23, 2025 | OUT | C$218.53 | Oct 21, 2025 | +22.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 8, 2025 | IN | C$214.34 | Jul 23, 2025 | +2.0% | ✓ right |
| May 23, 2025 | OUT | C$227.73 | Jul 8, 2025 | −5.9% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 158 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.