Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on Franco-Nevada
FNV with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2007
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding FNV over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2007 | Hold, since 2007 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +10.3% | +19.5% | +15.0% | +16.5% |
| Total return | +523% | +2,705% | +100% | +114% |
| Worst drawdown | −39.9% | −47.8% | −27.0% | −33.8% |
| Volatility | 19.7% | 35.4% | 20.3% | 29.4% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.52 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| Time invested | 37% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.8 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 20 of 33 closed calls (61%). In calls averaged +10.9%; out calls saw FNV move +13.6% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | FNV moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2026 | IN | C$312.20 | now | +11.0% | open |
| Jul 18, 2024 | OUT | C$169.63 | Apr 30, 2026 | +84.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 8, 2023 | IN | C$143.56 | Jul 18, 2024 | +18.2% | ✓ right |
| Apr 6, 2023 | OUT | C$200.75 | Dec 8, 2023 | −28.5% | ✓ right |
| Feb 27, 2023 | IN | C$166.04 | Apr 6, 2023 | +20.9% | ✓ right |
| Jan 17, 2023 | OUT | C$183.42 | Feb 27, 2023 | −9.5% | ✓ right |
| Dec 3, 2021 | IN | C$162.20 | Jan 17, 2023 | +13.1% | ✓ right |
| Mar 25, 2021 | OUT | C$145.57 | Dec 3, 2021 | +11.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 12, 2021 | IN | C$153.11 | Mar 25, 2021 | −4.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 25, 2019 | OUT | C$104.18 | Jan 12, 2021 | +47.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 26, 2019 | IN | C$88.97 | Jun 25, 2019 | +17.1% | ✓ right |
| Dec 14, 2018 | OUT | C$89.34 | Apr 26, 2019 | −0.4% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 34 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.