Industrials & materials

NFI Group (NFI)

C$26.28 +2.5% on the day·+75.9% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Buy86 / 100

Buy: 86 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (at its 1-year high) scores 100 and lifts it; Plays in (69%) scores 69 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	NFI	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	69%	69	40	27.6
Off the high	at its 1-year high	100	30	30.0
Trend	+24% vs 200-day	93	30	27.9

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for NFI

Factor	NFI	Points	What it is
Plays in	69%	69	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+22% · 8 analysts	60	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.5 · buy	75	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	41.7×	24	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	12.8×	69	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	–	–	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth.
Price to sales	0.6×	95	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	3.5×	41	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	none	0	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	–	–	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher.
Revenue growth	+19%	60	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	1%	22	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	9%	38	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	1.97×	9	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	at its 1-year high	100	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+24% vs 200-day	93	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+76%	89	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	5/10 · high	50	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on NFI

69 of the 100 plays hold NFI right now.
The trend-following, momentum and volume plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion plays mostly say out.
It closed 24% above its 200-day average and at a 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads high: it fell about 2.5× as far as its index in past crashes and carries 2.1× as much debt as equity.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$32.02, 22% above the close (8 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in69 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureHigh5 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.24×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+24%). Higher than on 81% of days since 2012. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about NFI now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn NFI: right 18 of 34 · Out since Feb 6, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn NFI: right 27 of 63 · Out since Aug 14, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn NFI: right 5 of 14 · In since Jan 30, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn NFI: right 64 of 114 · Out since Sep 3, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn NFI: right 18 of 33 · In since Aug 28, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn NFI: right 58 of 112 · Out since Oct 6, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn NFI: right 14 of 29 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

NFI, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved NFI lately

Its biggest move against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Mon Aug 31+3.9% against the S&P/TSX2.4× a normal day

NFI +3.1%, the S&P/TSX −0.8% that session; +7.9% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on NFI was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for NFI starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.8%. The 52 other Industrials & materials stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.6% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on NFI

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following28 of 30 in Breakouts & channels9 of 15 in Momentum16 of 17 in Mean reversion3 of 15 in Volume & money flow8 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on NFI went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2012. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +10.3%	Exit below C$24.71 (−6.0%)	27% 99/363	+15.5% / +13.1%	−64.5% / −86.0%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Sep 4, 2026 +8.1%	Exit below C$23.45 (−10.8%)	38% 20/52	+19.5% / +12.2%	−50.5% / −86.0%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +8.5%	Exit below C$24.22 (−7.8%)	28% 45/163	+17.3% / +13.7%	−67.4% / −86.0%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below C$24.06 (−8.4%)	16% 17/104	+6.6% / +10.3%	−44.2% / −86.0%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Jan 16, 2026 +58.1%	Exit below C$22.95 (−12.7%)	29% 11/38	+16.6% / +12.2%	−46.5% / −86.0%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Mar 13, 2026 +55.1%	Exit below C$22.95 (−12.7%)	32% 16/50	+14.2% / +10.7%	−40.2% / −86.0%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +69.3%	Exit below C$21.62 (−17.7%)	31% 5/16	+14.0% / +12.2%	−77.4% / −86.0%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Mar 12, 2026 +55.1%	Exit below C$21.15 (−19.5%)	28% 14/50	+21.0% / +12.1%	−30.7% / −86.0%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Feb 19, 2026 +42.5%	Not on one close	36% 5/14	+8.1% / +12.1%	−81.0% / −86.0%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Mar 12, 2026 +55.1%	Exit below C$21.15 (−19.5%)	18% 8/44	+15.2% / +12.0%	−49.3% / −86.0%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +4.1%	Exit below C$21.64 (−17.7%)	44% 35/79	+20.7% / +13.4%	−49.3% / −86.0%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Aug 31, 2026 +13.0%	Exit below C$25.18 (−4.2%)	27% 135/506	+12.0% / +12.5%	−65.2% / −86.0%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +10.3%	Exit below C$18.57 (−29.3%)	41% 58/141	+13.0% / +12.2%	−59.4% / −86.0%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Jan 13, 2026 +56.8%	Not on one close	29% 4/14	+16.5% / +10.3%	−39.7% / −86.0%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +9.7%	Exit below C$20.68 (−21.3%)	37% 23/63	+17.3% / +13.5%	−58.6% / −86.0%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below C$23.75 (−9.6%)	33% 21/64	+17.4% / +12.8%	−55.2% / −86.0%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Sep 4, 2026 +8.1%	Exit below C$23.70 (−9.8%)	33% 30/90	+13.7% / +12.0%	−62.8% / −86.0%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +6.7%	Not on one close	42% 84/198	+10.3% / +12.0%	−49.3% / −86.0%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below C$21.63 (−17.7%)	40% 136/340	+18.1% / +12.5%	−58.7% / −86.0%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +9.2%	Exit below C$23.03 (−12.4%)	46% 64/138	+22.1% / +12.0%	−41.5% / −86.0%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +9.2%	Exit below C$24.69 (−6.1%)	48% 143/296	+21.7% / +12.6%	−51.9% / −86.0%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 6, 2026 +5.7%	Enter above C$29.38 (+11.8%)	38% 44/115	+11.7% / +12.0%	−39.4% / −86.0%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +8.5%	Exit below C$19.00 (−27.7%)	29% 29/99	+14.6% / +13.1%	−66.8% / −86.0%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Sep 4, 2026 +8.1%	Exit below C$24.62 (−6.3%)	41% 57/138	+19.8% / +11.7%	−64.1% / −86.0%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +9.2%	Not on one close	34% 44/131	+17.8% / +13.1%	−58.4% / −86.0%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Sep 4, 2026 +8.1%	Exit below C$23.03 (−12.4%)	38% 55/144	+7.9% / +12.2%	−71.2% / −86.0%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +8.5%	Exit below C$19.56 (−25.6%)	29% 25/85	+16.3% / +13.7%	−59.2% / −86.0%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +8.5%	Exit below C$15.82 (−39.8%)	37% 21/57	+17.8% / +13.7%	−56.6% / −86.0%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below C$23.74 (−9.7%)	33% 41/123	+7.5% / +12.2%	−39.9% / −86.0%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Feb 6, 2026 +50.2%	Not on one close	53% 18/34	+3.3% / +13.1%	−23.5% / −86.0%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +4.1%	Exit below C$23.03 (−12.4%)	36% 27/75	+15.2% / +12.0%	−60.3% / −86.0%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Aug 6, 2026 +5.7%	Enter above C$26.40 (+0.5%)	42% 32/76	+14.8% / +12.8%	−48.4% / −86.0%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 +9.1%	Enter above C$26.40 (+0.5%)	46% 21/46	+16.1% / +12.8%	−43.2% / −86.0%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.4%	Exit below C$23.86 (−9.2%)	40% 19/47	+17.8% / +13.7%	−25.5% / −86.0%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Aug 6, 2026 +5.7%	Enter above C$26.40 (+0.5%)	41% 29/70	+13.9% / +12.0%	−59.0% / −86.0%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$24.74 (−5.9%)	33% 35/107	+7.6% / +12.5%	−30.4% / −86.0%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below C$24.56 (−6.5%)	37% 51/137	+12.5% / +12.1%	−33.2% / −86.0%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below C$24.23 (−7.8%)	37% 40/108	+15.9% / +11.7%	−40.9% / −86.0%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +9.2%	Exit below C$23.99 (−8.7%)	39% 41/104	+18.6% / +12.0%	−45.6% / −86.0%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 +7.8%	Enter above C$26.77 (+1.9%)	43% 27/63	+14.1% / +11.7%	−54.5% / −86.0%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +10.7%	Exit below C$23.96 (−8.8%)	32% 63/200	+17.4% / +12.4%	−53.3% / −86.0%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Jul 17, 2026 +3.1%	Enter above C$26.33 (+0.2%)	36% 42/117	+4.3% / +12.0%	−23.1% / −86.0%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +4.1%	Exit below C$17.34 (−34.0%)	38% 40/105	+2.7% / +12.5%	−26.9% / −86.0%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Aug 27, 2026 +16.4%	Exit below C$25.07 (−4.6%)	34% 141/411	+12.3% / +12.4%	−63.8% / −86.0%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jul 8, 2026 +14.9%	Not on one close	29% 8/28	+1.2% / +12.4%	−15.1% / −86.0%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +69.3%	Exit below C$14.87 (−43.4%)	70% 7/10	+18.4% / +10.4%	−40.8% / −86.0%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Jan 30, 2026 +58.9%	Not on one close	36% 5/14	+16.3% / +10.4%	−55.7% / −86.0%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Jan 30, 2026 +58.9%	Exit below C$16.53 (−37.1%)	50% 7/14	+17.0% / +10.4%	−41.1% / −86.0%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Sep 2, 2026 +13.0%	Exit below C$23.93 (−8.9%)	27% 16/59	+17.9% / +13.6%	−36.9% / −86.0%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Mar 31, 2026 +36.7%	Exit below C$22.34 (−15.0%)	42% 5/12	+12.9% / +11.3%	−47.4% / −86.0%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Sep 4, 2026 +8.1%	Exit below C$24.31 (−7.5%)	29% 17/58	+14.2% / +12.3%	−50.5% / −86.0%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 +9.9%	Exit below C$23.32 (−11.3%)	38% 100/264	+14.5% / +13.1%	−64.1% / −86.0%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +10.3%	Exit below C$25.04 (−4.7%)	31% 146/471	+10.6% / +13.1%	−73.5% / −86.0%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +12.7%	Exit below C$17.01 (−35.3%)	45% 82/183	+18.1% / +12.9%	−55.6% / −86.0%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +69.3%	Not on one close	29% 2/7	−1.9% / +9.8%	−81.1% / −86.0%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below C$25.15 (−4.3%)	31% 122/393	+11.2% / +12.0%	−35.4% / −86.0%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 +11.8%	Exit below C$11.10 (−57.8%)	41% 67/165	+15.6% / +13.7%	−51.0% / −86.0%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +8.5%	Exit below C$18.81 (−28.4%)	29% 28/95	+15.1% / +13.7%	−67.9% / −86.0%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +69.3%	Exit below C$23.49 (−10.6%)	43% 13/30	+16.7% / +10.4%	−48.4% / −86.0%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Jan 30, 2026 +58.9%	Not on one close	36% 5/14	+15.1% / +8.3%	−55.7% / −86.0%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +4.2%	Not on one close	69% 9/13	+19.7% / +10.4%	−31.9% / −86.0%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 8, 2026 +10.4%	Exit below C$21.46 (−18.3%)	37% 72/195	+13.2% / +12.2%	−63.7% / −86.0%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Aug 27, 2026 +16.4%	Exit below C$26.12 (−0.6%)	52% 14/27	−5.4% / +12.6%	−84.4% / −86.0%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 +16.4%	Not on one close	62% 130/210	+6.4% / +12.1%	−30.7% / −86.0%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +10.3%	Buy C$21.15–C$25.03 (−4.8%)	63% 156/246	+0.6% / +12.1%	−77.6% / −86.0%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 3, 2026 +9.9%	Buy below C$22.80 (−13.3%)	56% 64/114	−4.7% / +12.1%	−76.2% / −86.0%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +5.0%	Not on one close	59% 55/94	−1.1% / +12.1%	−83.7% / −86.0%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 +10.4%	Not on one close	63% 108/172	−0.6% / +12.5%	−70.1% / −86.0%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +2.5%	Not on one close	50% 22/44	+1.9% / +13.3%	−78.9% / −86.0%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 7, 2012 +386.8%	Sell above C$51.12 (+94.5%)	–	+12.1% / +12.1%	−86.0% / −86.0%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Oct 31, 2025 +83.3%	Buy below C$21.56 (−18.0%)	75% 6/8	+4.4% / +12.2%	−2.3% / −86.0%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +12.2%	Not on one close	43% 85/198	−4.1% / +12.5%	−76.6% / −86.0%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 +12.7%	Not on one close	56% 161/286	−0.7% / +12.5%	−80.0% / −86.0%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +4.7%	Buy below C$26.28 (0.0%)	56% 663/1182	−6.9% / +13.9%	−80.1% / −86.0%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +9.2%	Not on one close	42% 22/52	−5.4% / +12.1%	−76.4% / −86.0%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +2.5%	Exit below C$25.28 (−3.8%)	40% 274/689	+9.7% / +13.1%	−70.7% / −86.0%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +7.0%	Buy below C$25.06 (−4.7%)	62% 51/82	+11.1% / +12.0%	−56.9% / −86.0%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +4.1%	Not on one close	27% 117/428	+11.6% / +12.1%	−62.3% / −86.0%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +6.4%	Not on one close	46% 50/108	+6.5% / +12.0%	−79.1% / −86.0%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +16.5%	Not on one close	55% 18/33	+6.1% / +12.6%	−48.4% / −86.0%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2026 +6.8%	Enter above C$27.64 (+5.2%)	38% 34/89	+9.2% / +10.5%	−72.6% / −86.0%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +10.7%	Exit below C$24.27 (−7.6%)	25% 110/442	+7.7% / +12.1%	−64.9% / −86.0%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +12.7%	Exit below C$16.41 (−37.6%)	38% 79/206	+16.6% / +12.1%	−61.2% / −86.0%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +6.7%	Not on one close	36% 124/348	+3.5% / +12.0%	−83.7% / −86.0%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Mar 27, 2026 +36.7%	Not on one close	30% 19/64	+0.8% / +10.5%	−85.6% / −86.0%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 +9.9%	Not on one close	34% 188/552	+5.6% / +13.6%	−72.6% / −86.0%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +5.0%	Not on one close	52% 58/112	−1.5% / +12.6%	−77.9% / −86.0%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	Aug 31, 2026 +13.0%	Exit below C$22.14 (−15.8%)	35% 23/65	+10.5% / +13.4%	−48.0% / −86.0%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	May 28, 2026 +15.1%	Not on one close	50% 8/16	+2.9% / +11.9%	−6.5% / −86.0%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +20.8%	Buys Oct 30	48% 14/29	+5.7% / +13.9%	−79.8% / −86.0%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 2, 2026 +43.8%	Not on one close	46% 13/28	+0.6% / +13.1%	−87.2% / −86.0%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	May 4, 2026 +24.8%	Window opens Oct 16	48% 14/29	+2.9% / +13.1%	−82.2% / −86.0%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +65.9%	Buys Dec 23	57% 16/28	+4.4% / +13.9%	−9.4% / −86.0%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +4.1%	Buys Oct 29	50% 177/354	+7.0% / +13.9%	−34.4% / −86.0%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +7.0%	Sells Jun 30	29% 2/7	+0.8% / +13.9%	−54.9% / −86.0%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +8.1%	Buys Nov 24	50% 132/262	+4.8% / +13.9%	−9.5% / −86.0%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +176.1%	Not on one close	50% 6/12	+9.2% / +11.3%	−55.9% / −86.0%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	53% 812/1535	+16.3% / +13.9%	−69.5% / −86.0%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +10.3%	Buys Oct 27	45% 105/233	+1.6% / +13.9%	−10.8% / −86.0%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +4.1%	Sells Oct 16	48% 175/364	+5.4% / +13.9%	−80.5% / −86.0%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 24, 2012	Always in	–	+14.0%	−86.0%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureHigh5 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes2/2
Debt3/3
Run-up0/2

It fell about 2.5× as far as its index in past crashes.
It carries 2.1× as much debt as equity.
It operating profit covers interest only 0.1×.

Past crashes, peak to low

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jan 2021

NFI−65%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to May 2022 · back to its old high Apr 2026

NFI−46%

TSX−14%

Beta0.56Moves about 0.6× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture−4%In months the TSX fell, this fell -4% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+49%
From 52-week high0%
Debt to equity2.08×
Net debt / EBITDA9.2×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover0.1×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Auto Manufacturers · NFI Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells buses in North America, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Manufacturing Operations and Aftermarket Operations segments. The Manufacturing Operations segment designs, manufactures, services, and supports transit buses, motor coaches, medium-duty, and cutaway buses; the installation of infrastructure for electric vehicles; and the third-party sales of fiberglass reinforced polymer components.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$3.1B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$3.8B	Total sales.
P/E ratio	41.7×	Buyers pay C$42 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	12.8×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	3.5×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	1.4%	Keeps 1¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+18.6%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Return on equity	9.2%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$118M	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$586M	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$1.2B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$118M	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	2.08×	Above about 1.5× is heavily borrowed; above 3× is fragile in a downturn.
Interest cover	0.1×	Operating profit divided by interest. Under 2× means one bad year could make the interest hard to pay.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$32.02	22% above the close, from 8 analysts (range C$29.07 to C$36.70).
Consensus rating	Strong buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

NFI: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Industrials & materials: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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