Guide · Calendar
Does Best Six + MACD work?
Across 375 stocks, Best Six + MACD cut the worst fall on 88%, beat buying and holding on risk-adjusted return on 26% and on raw return on 25%. Mainly a seatbelt: it softened the big falls on most stocks, but usually gave up return to do it.
What it predicts
The Almanac's refinement of the Best Six Months: wait for a MACD buy signal from October 1, and a MACD sell signal from April 1.
- In on the first MACD (8, 17, 9) cross above its signal line on or after October 1.
- Out on the first cross below on or after April 1.
Calendar plays bet that some parts of the year and month have been reliably stronger than others. The family guide
How to use it
- It worked best on Metals & mining (51% beat holding on risk-adjusted return) and worst on Big tech (0%).
- Use it as one input. Your signal combines the plays you count with the other factors you weight into one call.
When it worked
Best Six + MACD did best against holding in the 2008 crash (+18% median gap) and worst in the 2020–21 rally (−22%). Median gap in return against holding the same stock (per year over stretches longer than 18 months; crypto excluded).
| 2008 crash | Recovery 2009–19 | COVID drop | 2020–21 rally | 2022 bear | Since Oct 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best Six + MACD | +18% | −5% | 0% | −22% | +16% | −8% |
Where it worked
By kind of stock: how often it beat holding on risk-adjusted return, and the median Sharpe ratio gap.
| Group | Beat holding, risk-adjusted | Sharpe gap |
|---|---|---|
| Metals & mining | 51% | +0.01 |
| Micro caps | 50% | +0.01 |
| Media & telecom | 40% | -0.07 |
| Semiconductors | 35% | -0.04 |
| Energy & power | 34% | -0.05 |
| Indexes & ETFs | 29% | -0.07 |
| Sectors | 25% | -0.10 |
| Healthcare | 22% | -0.07 |
| Industrials & materials | 22% | -0.08 |
| Consumer & retail | 21% | -0.11 |
| Software & devices | 12% | -0.16 |
| Financials | 12% | -0.19 |
| Industrials & rentals | 11% | -0.12 |
| Real estate | 5% | -0.13 |
| Big tech | 0% | -0.34 |
Where it helped most
Sharpe ratio gap against holding, stocks with 3+ years of history
Right now
Best Six + MACD holds 176 of 377 names as of the Oct 13, 2026 close.
Changed its call in the last two weeks:
Backtest results since 2005 (or as long as each stock has traded), against holding the same stock over the same dates, after 0.05% per switch. Past results don't promise future ones. This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision.