Founder and editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac

Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch

Yale Hirsch (1923–2021) created the Stock Trader's Almanac in 1967, an annual guide to stock-market seasonality, cycles and patterns. His son Jeffrey Hirsch joined in 1990 as a market analyst and later became editor-in-chief.

What they argue

The stock market has made almost all its gains in six months of the year, November through April (the 'Best Six Months', first identified in 1986).
The last five trading days of December and the first two of January, the 'Santa Claus Rally' that Yale Hirsch defined in 1972, tend to be positive.
The market's direction in January tends to point the way for the rest of the year (the 'January Barometer').

Sources

Stock Trader's Almanac: About Us Stock Trader's Almanac: Yale Hirsch (1923–2021)Stock Trader's Almanac: Best Six Months / Tactical Seasonal Switching

Summaries are Be The Puck's paraphrase of public material. Be The Puck has no affiliation with the people listed.

Books and papers

Stock Trader's Almanac (annual) (1967)

The full reading list

Halloween indicator (sell in May)

Rule and full record

Calendar · daily · with Sven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen

Own stocks from November through April; sit in T-bills from May through October.

Calls right54%13,367 closed calls on 377 stocks.

Beat buy and hold (Sharpe)124 of 375On raw return: 102 of 375.

In right now0 of 377As of the Oct 13, 2026 close.

Best risk-adjusted results against buy and hold:

NAMMOUT STHHOUT NPCEOUT TFPMOUT HTZOUT AAUCOUT SIIOUT AQNOUT LUNOUT WDCOUT ARISOUT TKOOUT All 377 stocks →

Almanac Best Six Months with MACD timing

Rule and full record

Calendar · daily

The Almanac's refinement of the Best Six Months: wait for a MACD buy signal from October 1, and a MACD sell signal from April 1.

Calls right54%13,505 closed calls on 377 stocks.

Beat buy and hold (Sharpe)98 of 375On raw return: 95 of 375.

In right now176 of 377As of the Oct 13, 2026 close.

Best risk-adjusted results against buy and hold:

STHHOUT NPCEOUT TFPMIN QUTXIN LUNOUT VNPOUT MFIIN HTZIN OGCIN ARISOUT LIN CCOIN All 377 stocks →

Santa Claus rally

Rule and full record

Calendar · daily

The last five trading days of December and the first two of January. That's it: seven days a year.

Calls right47%13,585 closed calls on 377 stocks.

Beat buy and hold (Sharpe)107 of 375On raw return: 46 of 375.

In right now0 of 377As of the Oct 13, 2026 close.

Best risk-adjusted results against buy and hold:

LACOUT VITL.UNOUT AP.UNOUT SIIOUT SPBOUT BBUCOUT ARISOUT HTZOUT NGOUT IVNOUT BTEOUT LUNOUT All 377 stocks →

Presidential-cycle sweet spot (Q4 of the midterm year to Q2 of the pre-election year)

Rule and full record

Calendar · daily

Own stocks only in the strongest stretch of the 4-year presidential cycle: from the start of the fourth quarter of a midterm-election year to the end of June of the year after.

Calls right46%3,436 closed calls on 377 stocks.

Beat buy and hold (Sharpe)52 of 375On raw return: 39 of 375.

In right now377 of 377As of the Oct 13, 2026 close.

Best risk-adjusted results against buy and hold:

NAMMIN GEHCIN HTZIN CCAIN GIB.AIN BHCIN FLNCIN CMCSAIN BSXIN DASHIN BCEIN MDLZIN All 377 stocks →

Hirsch's January Barometer: as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year

Rule and full record

Calendar · month-end

If the S&P 500 rises in January, hold the stock for the rest of the year. If it falls, sit out until next January.

Calls right40%5,988 closed calls on 377 stocks.

Beat buy and hold (Sharpe)61 of 375On raw return: 48 of 375.

In right now375 of 377As of the Oct 13, 2026 close.

Best risk-adjusted results against buy and hold:

APPIN PLTRIN DASHIN NPCEIN MAUIN ABNBIN XLCIN TSATIN EOSEIN BHCIN MDAIN AREIN All 377 stocks →