Industrials & materials

Aecon Group (ARE)

C$54.12 +1.0% on the day·+126.2% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Buy76 / 100

Buy: 76 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Trend (+23% vs 200-day) scores 93 and lifts it; Plays in (65%) scores 65 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	ARE	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	65%	65	40	26.0
Off the high	−9% from its 1-year high	72	30	21.6
Trend	+23% vs 200-day	93	30	27.9

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for ARE

Factor	ARE	Points	What it is
Plays in	65%	65	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+9% · 10 analysts	41	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	2.0 · buy	50	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	loss	0	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	24.9×	19	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	5.90	8	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	0.6×	94	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	3.9×	39	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	1.4%	40	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	–	–	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher.
Revenue growth	+25%	70	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	−1%	13	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	−7%	11	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	0.83×	36	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−9% from its 1-year high	72	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+23% vs 200-day	93	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+126%	95	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	7/10 · very high	30	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on ARE

65 of the 100 plays hold ARE right now.
The trend-following, breakout and momentum plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion and pattern plays mostly say out.
It closed 23% above its 200-day average and 9% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads very high: it fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes and operating profit covers interest only 1.6×.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$58.80, 9% above the close (10 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in65 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureVery high7 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.23×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+23%). Higher than on 85% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about ARE now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn ARE: right 18 of 40 · Out since Apr 9, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn ARE: right 37 of 90 · In since Sep 8, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn ARE: right 13 of 36 · In since Jun 30, 2023 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn ARE: right 129 of 196 · Out since Sep 4, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn ARE: right 27 of 56 · Out since Oct 6, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn ARE: right 63 of 136 · Out since Aug 19, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn ARE: right 25 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

ARE, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved ARE lately

Its biggest move against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Mon Sep 21+7.5% against the S&P/TSX2.2× a normal day

ARE +8.1%, the S&P/TSX +0.6% that session; +11.3% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on ARE was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for ARE starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved +0.6%. The 52 other Industrials & materials stocks Be The Puck covers moved +1.1% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Thu Oct 29, 2026 after the close

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 0.75.

Over its last 12 reports, ARE's typical move against the S&P/TSX at the first close after the report was ±8.0% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 9 times.
ARE after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 20 of 24 times (median +6.9%).
ARE after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 13 of 22 times (median −1.4%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on ARE

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following27 of 30 in Breakouts & channels11 of 15 in Momentum14 of 17 in Mean reversion4 of 15 in Volume & money flow5 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns0 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on ARE went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +16.7%	Exit below C$52.42 (−3.1%)	26% 141/546	+14.7% / +13.2%	−47.1% / −74.9%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +15.1%	Exit below C$47.62 (−12.0%)	34% 36/106	+11.8% / +13.2%	−60.1% / −74.9%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +16.7%	Exit below C$49.75 (−8.1%)	25% 81/328	+11.6% / +13.2%	−58.0% / −74.9%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +15.1%	Exit below C$48.11 (−11.1%)	22% 33/148	+8.4% / +13.2%	−39.0% / −74.9%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +15.1%	Exit below C$47.29 (−12.6%)	23% 18/77	+8.9% / +13.2%	−56.4% / −74.9%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +15.1%	Exit below C$47.29 (−12.6%)	21% 19/90	+9.0% / +13.2%	−50.7% / −74.9%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +131.5%	Exit below C$43.99 (−18.7%)	29% 12/42	+8.7% / +13.2%	−52.2% / −74.9%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2025 +164.8%	Exit below C$43.91 (−18.9%)	19% 24/126	+14.4% / +13.2%	−42.9% / −74.9%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2025 +144.6%	Not on one close	40% 12/30	+10.1% / +13.2%	−42.4% / −74.9%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 30, 2025 +71.3%	Exit below C$43.91 (−18.9%)	18% 16/88	+10.8% / +13.2%	−48.4% / −74.9%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.4%	Exit below C$35.81 (−33.8%)	46% 55/120	+16.2% / +13.2%	−54.0% / −74.9%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$53.80 (−0.6%)	25% 176/712	+11.0% / +13.2%	−45.4% / −74.9%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +18.9%	Exit below C$40.80 (−24.6%)	43% 93/218	+13.4% / +13.2%	−50.5% / −74.9%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Jun 25, 2025 +178.2%	Not on one close	21% 8/38	+6.6% / +13.5%	−72.1% / −74.9%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 −1.0%	Exit below C$36.66 (−32.3%)	31% 38/124	+10.7% / +13.2%	−56.1% / −74.9%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.5%	Exit below C$44.47 (−17.8%)	34% 33/96	+12.9% / +13.2%	−49.8% / −74.9%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Sep 8, 2026 +14.6%	Exit below C$51.66 (−4.5%)	35% 58/168	+7.8% / +13.2%	−58.8% / −74.9%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +5.3%	Not on one close	46% 112/242	+13.6% / +13.2%	−40.8% / −74.9%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +18.9%	Exit below C$54.06 (−0.1%)	34% 188/546	+12.0% / +13.2%	−53.6% / −74.9%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.5%	Exit below C$43.10 (−20.4%)	39% 80/204	+11.5% / +13.2%	−63.6% / −74.9%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +0.0%	Enter above C$58.86 (+8.8%)	37% 163/443	+7.0% / +13.2%	−49.1% / −74.9%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +0.0%	Exit below C$49.32 (−8.9%)	37% 56/153	+9.1% / +13.2%	−51.1% / −74.9%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.5%	Exit below C$28.93 (−46.5%)	34% 57/170	+12.9% / +13.2%	−50.3% / −74.9%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +1.0%	Enter above C$55.70 (+2.9%)	37% 78/209	+10.9% / +13.2%	−67.4% / −74.9%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.5%	Not on one close	34% 74/218	+11.2% / +13.2%	−57.6% / −74.9%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Sep 8, 2026 +14.6%	Exit below C$51.40 (−5.0%)	43% 84/196	+15.8% / +13.2%	−58.1% / −74.9%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.5%	Exit below C$31.96 (−40.9%)	35% 53/150	+14.1% / +13.2%	−48.0% / −74.9%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 −1.0%	Not on one close	38% 36/96	+12.5% / +13.2%	−49.9% / −74.9%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +21.5%	Exit below C$43.30 (−20.0%)	41% 80/196	+9.0% / +13.2%	−37.4% / −74.9%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Apr 9, 2026 +19.5%	Not on one close	45% 18/40	+2.4% / +13.2%	−19.1% / −74.9%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.5%	Exit below C$43.30 (−20.0%)	37% 46/124	+9.8% / +13.2%	−58.6% / −74.9%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.5%	Exit below C$51.40 (−5.0%)	39% 47/121	+10.0% / +13.2%	−52.4% / −74.9%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 −1.0%	Exit below C$50.39 (−6.9%)	35% 31/89	+11.1% / +13.2%	−47.2% / −74.9%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 −1.0%	Exit below C$52.19 (−3.6%)	43% 35/82	+10.1% / +13.2%	−44.9% / −74.9%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	IN	Sep 8, 2026 +14.6%	Exit below C$43.10 (−20.4%)	39% 41/106	+9.9% / +13.2%	−68.5% / −74.9%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.5%	Exit below C$52.57 (−2.9%)	39% 55/140	+12.5% / +13.2%	−34.0% / −74.9%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.5%	Exit below C$52.86 (−2.3%)	39% 77/196	+10.8% / +13.2%	−40.0% / −74.9%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +3.5%	Enter above C$59.17 (+9.3%)	43% 80/187	+10.3% / +13.2%	−44.6% / −74.9%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 8, 2026 +14.6%	Exit below C$51.28 (−5.3%)	36% 72/198	+8.5% / +13.2%	−61.3% / −74.9%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Sep 8, 2026 +14.6%	Exit below C$50.45 (−6.8%)	41% 37/90	+13.1% / +13.2%	−59.9% / −74.9%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.0%	Exit below C$53.16 (−1.8%)	27% 93/344	+8.7% / +13.2%	−54.3% / −74.9%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +0.0%	Not on one close	30% 53/176	+4.0% / +13.2%	−23.1% / −74.9%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +3.5%	Not on one close	36% 48/134	+4.6% / +13.2%	−27.5% / −74.9%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Sep 4, 2026 +20.6%	Exit below C$43.30 (−20.0%)	33% 218/651	+9.5% / +13.2%	−55.1% / −74.9%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Nov 12, 2025 +101.5%	Not on one close	37% 14/38	+3.8% / +13.2%	−20.9% / −74.9%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +75.2%	Exit below C$31.47 (−41.9%)	37% 11/30	+10.4% / +13.5%	−59.7% / −74.9%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Jun 30, 2023 +392.6%	Not on one close	36% 13/36	+7.6% / +13.5%	−77.9% / −74.9%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +75.2%	Exit below C$34.99 (−35.3%)	50% 17/34	+8.7% / +13.5%	−55.0% / −74.9%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 −1.0%	Exit below C$47.41 (−12.4%)	21% 24/117	+9.3% / +13.2%	−46.4% / −74.9%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +0.0%	Exit below C$50.29 (−7.1%)	37% 10/27	+8.2% / +13.2%	−41.4% / −74.9%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +3.4%	Exit below C$49.68 (−8.2%)	37% 35/95	+12.5% / +13.2%	−54.1% / −74.9%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +1.0%	Enter above C$58.30 (+7.7%)	34% 145/421	+9.3% / +13.2%	−50.4% / −74.9%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +3.5%	Enter above C$55.26 (+2.1%)	28% 202/726	+8.7% / +13.2%	−47.0% / −74.9%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +18.9%	Exit below C$45.43 (−16.1%)	39% 120/308	+6.8% / +13.2%	−53.2% / −74.9%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Mar 31, 2023 +350.3%	Not on one close	30% 6/20	+10.0% / +13.9%	−74.9% / −74.9%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +0.0%	Enter above C$58.69 (+8.4%)	27% 148/552	+2.9% / +13.2%	−50.5% / −74.9%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 10, 2026 +16.8%	Exit below C$28.20 (−47.9%)	42% 107/256	+10.1% / +13.2%	−58.3% / −74.9%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +6.5%	Exit below C$27.60 (−49.0%)	33% 54/166	+12.9% / +13.2%	−52.8% / −74.9%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Aug 29, 2025 +172.4%	Exit below C$49.49 (−8.5%)	36% 33/91	+12.7% / +13.5%	−63.3% / −74.9%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Jun 30, 2023 +392.6%	Not on one close	52% 14/27	+11.4% / +13.8%	−59.5% / −74.9%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Jan 30, 2026 +55.3%	Not on one close	36% 10/28	+5.7% / +13.5%	−73.7% / −74.9%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 8, 2026 +14.6%	Exit below C$50.24 (−7.2%)	34% 109/320	+9.0% / +13.2%	−49.7% / −74.9%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 19, 2025 +137.4%	Not on one close	49% 17/35	−1.8% / +13.2%	−72.8% / −74.9%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.5%	Sell above C$53.52 (−1.1%)	61% 170/279	+2.1% / +13.2%	−29.3% / −74.9%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.5%	Sell above C$57.76 (+6.7%)	64% 215/334	+7.0% / +13.2%	−35.3% / −74.9%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +20.6%	Buy below C$44.28 (−18.2%)	66% 129/196	+3.2% / +13.2%	−63.1% / −74.9%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 +3.6%	Not on one close	56% 83/148	+0.9% / +13.2%	−71.5% / −74.9%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 +18.9%	Not on one close	57% 142/248	+1.4% / +13.2%	−58.5% / −74.9%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	May 21, 2026 +20.4%	Not on one close	55% 41/74	−0.5% / +13.2%	−67.4% / −74.9%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +1,439.5%	Sell above C$106.13 (+96.1%)	–	+13.2% / +13.2%	−74.9% / −74.9%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	May 15, 2026 +7.6%	Not on one close	58% 14/24	+3.8% / +13.2%	−7.9% / −74.9%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +23.8%	Not on one close	44% 133/302	+1.5% / +13.2%	−74.4% / −74.9%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 +18.9%	Enter above C$54.24 (+0.2%)	51% 222/435	+5.6% / +13.2%	−61.5% / −74.9%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +3.5%	Buy below C$54.12 (0.0%)	57% 1049/1840	+4.1% / +13.2%	−39.8% / −74.9%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 +14.6%	Not on one close	60% 49/82	+3.6% / +13.2%	−38.7% / −74.9%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +0.0%	Enter above C$60.87 (+12.5%)	34% 368/1078	+2.6% / +13.2%	−55.7% / −74.9%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +0.0%	Buy below C$55.19 (+2.0%)	61% 75/123	+5.1% / +13.2%	−56.2% / −74.9%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +16.7%	Not on one close	31% 189/602	+13.1% / +13.2%	−49.4% / −74.9%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 8, 2026 +14.6%	Not on one close	40% 80/200	+9.0% / +13.2%	−65.6% / −74.9%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 −5.8%	Not on one close	48% 27/56	+1.4% / +13.2%	−69.3% / −74.9%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −6.3%	Not on one close	36% 46/127	+7.4% / +13.2%	−57.6% / −74.9%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 +16.7%	Exit below C$52.96 (−2.1%)	28% 163/574	+10.9% / +13.2%	−48.8% / −74.9%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +18.9%	Exit below C$51.82 (−4.2%)	31% 110/354	+11.8% / +13.2%	−54.9% / −74.9%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$54.12 (0.0%)	39% 202/522	+11.2% / +13.2%	−47.0% / −74.9%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +1.0%	Enter above C$53.34 (−1.4%)	35% 35/100	+10.8% / +13.2%	−43.4% / −74.9%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 −5.8%	Buy C$52.88–C$55.36 (+2.3%)	34% 291/858	+7.9% / +13.2%	−51.6% / −74.9%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Aug 19, 2026 +18.1%	Not on one close	46% 63/136	+3.2% / +13.2%	−48.3% / −74.9%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Aug 25, 2026 +26.5%	Not on one close	38% 29/76	+10.2% / +13.2%	−52.8% / −74.9%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Apr 8, 2025 +245.6%	Not on one close	60% 42/70	+4.9% / +13.2%	−34.0% / −74.9%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +9.2%	Buys Oct 30	58% 25/43	+11.5% / +13.2%	−53.4% / −74.9%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 21, 2026 +19.2%	Enter above C$61.23 (+13.1%)	51% 22/43	+11.4% / +13.2%	−47.4% / −74.9%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 22, 2026 +17.4%	Window opens Oct 16	56% 24/43	+15.2% / +13.2%	−46.9% / −74.9%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +71.4%	Buys Dec 23	59% 26/44	+4.0% / +13.2%	−6.3% / −74.9%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −6.3%	Buys Oct 29	49% 260/526	+3.8% / +13.2%	−54.5% / −74.9%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +0.0%	Sells Jun 30	55% 6/11	+4.8% / +13.2%	−57.7% / −74.9%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +20.6%	Buys Nov 24	50% 194/386	+3.2% / +13.2%	−15.3% / −74.9%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +588.2%	Not on one close	55% 11/20	+17.5% / +13.2%	−57.4% / −74.9%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	51% 1172/2284	+12.0% / +13.2%	−62.8% / −74.9%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +21.5%	Buys Oct 27	50% 173/348	+2.7% / +13.2%	−20.1% / −74.9%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −8.5%	Sells Oct 16	48% 262/541	+4.4% / +13.2%	−61.9% / −74.9%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 4, 2005	Always in	–	+13.2%	−74.9%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureVery high7 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes2/2
Debt3/3
Run-up2/2

It fell about 1.8× as far as its index in past crashes.
It operating profit covers interest only 1.6×.
It is up 152% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Nov 2008 · back to its old high Oct 2013

ARE−64%

TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jan 2021

ARE−37%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Oct 2022 · back to its old high Mar 2024

ARE−41%

TSX−14%

Beta0.65Moves about 0.6× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture−0%In months the TSX fell, this fell -0% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+152%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−9%
Debt to equity0.87×
Net debt / EBITDA0.9×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover1.6×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Engineering & Construction · Aecon Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provide construction and infrastructure development services to private and public sector clients in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Construction and Concessions. The Construction segment focuses on civil infrastructure, urban transportation solutions, nuclear power infrastructure, utility infrastructure, and industrial infrastructure market sectors.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$3.7B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	C$6.0B	Total sales. The market values it at 0.6× sales.
P/E ratio	n/a	Lost money over the last year, so there is no profit to divide by.
Forward P/E	24.9×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book	3.9×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	−1.1%	Spends more than it brings in.
Revenue growth	+25.3%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Return on equity	−7.0%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	C$304M	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	C$922M	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	C$804M	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	C$630M	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.87×	Moderate.
Interest cover	1.6×	Operating profit divided by interest. Under 2× means one bad year could make the interest hard to pay.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$58.80	9% above the close, from 10 analysts (range C$50.00 to C$66.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	1.44%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

ARE: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Industrials & materials: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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